Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

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56 State Texas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Florida Georgia South Carolina North Carolina Virginia Maryl<strong>and</strong> Delaware New Jersey New York Connecticut Rhode Isl<strong>and</strong> Massachusetts New Hampshire Maine Coastal total US total HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPACT ON SOCIETY Table 2.2 Summary of coastal county insured property by state Total coastal insured property values (current $ billions) 1988 70.1 87.5 14.1 22.8 565.8 16.5 31.2 22.7 42.5 129.2 38.7 88.5 301.7 143.3 52.9 179.8 18.5 32.3 1 858.1 12967.1 1993 128.6 123.5 25.5 36.9 871.7 32.5 54.7 45.0 67.8 202.6 67.7 152.8 595.6 248.1 83.1 321.6 34.9 54.5 3147.0 21422.0 Source: Insurance Institute for Property Loss Reduction. 1988-1993 increase as a percentage of 1988 value 83 41 80 61 54 96 75 97 59 56 74 72 97 73 57 78 88 68 69 65 hurricanes. It is also important to recognize that the "costs" of hurricane impacts go well beyond those which can be expressed in dollars (e.g. Mauro 1992). Preparedness Throughout this discussion, the term "preparedness" is used in a general sense to refer to the full range of anticipatory <strong>and</strong> emergency management activities (e.g. mitigation, preparedness, response, restoration). Preparedness refers to all of the efforts at various levels of public <strong>and</strong> private decision-making to reduce hurricane-related casualties <strong>and</strong> damage (BTFFDR 1995; Wolensky <strong>and</strong> Wolensky 1990). One study argues that preparedness planning "makes excellent sense to do now those things which can reduce or minimize the risks <strong>and</strong> costs of future hurricanes, <strong>and</strong> hasten sensible recovery practices after the storm (Salmon <strong>and</strong> Henningson 1987). Preparedness has technical, practical, <strong>and</strong> political aspects which, in large part, are often determined by the idiosyncrasies of <strong>and</strong> resources available to each community. Therefore, levels of
THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM preparedness (<strong>and</strong> consequently, societal vulnerability) vary a great deal between communities along the US Gulf <strong>and</strong> Atlantic coasts. In general, preparedness activities have short- <strong>and</strong> long-term components (Salmon <strong>and</strong> Henningson 1987). Short-term responses focus on a particular approaching storm. Long-term responses focus on the hurricane threat more generally. Many short-term responses related to protection of the exposed population are based upon long-term studies of expected storm surges due to l<strong>and</strong>falling hurricanes (Sheets 1990). For example, expected coastal flooding is calculated using the SLOSH (Sea, Lake, <strong>and</strong> Overl<strong>and</strong> Surges from <strong>Hurricanes</strong>) storm-surge model, which is discussed further in Section 5.2.2. The SLOSH model was conceived, developed, <strong>and</strong> first applied by Chester Jelesnianski. The SLOSH model is run for 31 "SLOSH basins" along the US coast from Texas to Maine (Jarvinen <strong>and</strong> Lawrence 1985). Errors in the forecasts of specific l<strong>and</strong>falling storms are compensated for because each map represents a composite of maximum storm surges for a range of l<strong>and</strong>fall points, storm movement, <strong>and</strong> intensity. Evacuation studies are then based upon the areas identified to be at risk from the output of the SLOSH modeling process. Such studies include a behavioral component that seeks to identify "realistic assumptions of how the public will behave when advised or ordered to evacuate" <strong>and</strong> a transportation analysis which seeks to identify the capacity of routes of escape, points of congestion (Baker 1993b; Carter 1993), <strong>and</strong> places of "last resort refuge" (Sheets 1992). Short-term response is focused on the hurricane forecast. The National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, local <strong>and</strong> state officials, <strong>and</strong> the media coordinate hurricane watches <strong>and</strong> warnings based upon the forecast tracks of specific approaching hurricanes (Sheets 1990). The following isolated incident, which occurred in South Carolina during Hurricane Hugo (1989), illustrates the stakes involved with long-term planning for short-term response. In the village of McClellanville, the Lincoln High School was used as an evacuation shelter. The evacuation plan listed the base elevation of the school as 20.53 feet National Geodetic Vertical Datum (NGVD). Many of the residents took shelter in this school. During the height of the storm, water rose outside the school <strong>and</strong> eventually broke through one of the doors. Water rushed in <strong>and</strong> continued to rise inside the school reaching a depth of 6 feet within the building. A resident with a videocassette recorder documented people climbing on tables <strong>and</strong> bleachers to escape the rising water. As the water reached its maximum height, children were lifted onto the school's rafters. Fortunately, everyone survived the event although not without considerable anxiety. Later examination revealed that the base elevation of the school was 10 feet, not the 20.53 feet listed on the evacuation plan. This school should not have been used as a shelter for any storm greater than a Category 1 hurricane. (DOC 1990) Warning <strong>and</strong> response to Hurricane Hugo based upon the SLOSH model process have been generally judged successful (e.g. DOC 1990; Baker 1994; 57
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Hurricanes
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Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & So
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Dedication Foreword. Preface. Conte
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CONTENTS 5.3 5.2.3 WindY. . 5.2.4 R
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Foreword Before the mid-l 960s, stu
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X11 FOREWORD The lessons of Camille
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XVI PREFACE One of the fundamental
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XVlll PREFACE about the need for so
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2 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
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4 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
Page 23 and 24: INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
Page 25 and 26: INTRODUcnON: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND H
Page 27 and 28: INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 29 and 30: INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 31 and 32: INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 33 and 34: I I I I A -Nr"1v ~ r/) ,:,.," 0- 0-
Page 35 and 36: INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 37 and 38: 21 INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, A
Page 39 and 40: INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
Page 45 and 46: INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 47 and 48: CHAPTER 2 The US Hurricane Problem
Page 49 and 50: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM human acti
Page 51 and 52: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM of their p
Page 53 and 54: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 37 2.1.3 S
Page 55 and 56: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 39 activit
Page 57 and 58: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Figure 2.3
Page 59 and 60: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM on an intr
Page 61 and 62: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.1
Page 63 and 64: TIm us HURRICANE PROBLEM ~ I (a) -.
Page 65 and 66: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM emissions)
Page 67 and 68: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 51 Figure
Page 69 and 70: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM (ODDs) 193
Page 71: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 55 Figure
Page 75 and 76: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 59 threat
Page 77 and 78: nIB US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.3
Page 79 and 80: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 63 Paralle
Page 81 and 82: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Congress,
Page 83 and 84: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 67 Appendi
Page 85 and 86: TRC!>PICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH
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Page 89 and 90: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH F
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Page 105 and 106: 35 ,~ 20 1201 55 TROPICAL CYCLONES
Page 107 and 108: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 9
Page 109 and 110: HURRICANE FORECASTS Figure 4.1 The
Page 111 and 112: * t " , " ' " i : , , j !' \ HURRIC
Page 113 and 114: HURRICANE FORECASTS (e) 7AM ~ ..i~~
Page 115 and 116: HURRICANE Fa RECASTS While the news
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Page 119 and 120: 102 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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106 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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~ .I;~ a ;;'0 . ~ ! ~ " 0 'I' -§.
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CHAPTERS When a hurricane forms, it
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I ~..;. 126 HURRICANES: THEm NATURE
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~'\ '" 128 \ '-- HURRICANES: THEIR
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~ I 00- .". ~ -0( v 1a u .§ ~ ...g
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CHAPTER? 7.1 INTRODUCflON As recoun
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APPENDIX A CHAPTER! Byerly, R., 199
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40 000 30 000 20'000 10 000 APPENDI
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APPENDIX C Selected Data on Tropica
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Figure C.4 Cont: Tracks of intense
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'-'2 ..~ ,-..~ \OQ. ~~ -I" -(') 3.
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APPENDIX C 209 '";ij' 40 Q) ~ C) Q)
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211 APPENDIX D Table D.2 Eastern No
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APPENDIX D Table D.6 Western Austra
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APPENDIX D Table D.8 Fiji Region Na
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APPENDIX D Table 0.10 Southeast Ind
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on "'-va , £.c 0 I::.cp. V'O cn ,'
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UJ ~ UJ P-'-'" s~~ 0 In + In O-o>,V
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APPENDIX E 233
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APPENDIX E In sum, TDS provides an
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APPENDIX 0 ~ION E 237 A period of t
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APPENDIX E IF SITUATION W~S P (alp)
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29. APPENDIX E p (0) 5 (a/p) T (alp
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APPENDIX E p (0) p p S T (a/o) (a/p
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APPENDIX E p p 5 p (alp) (r) S (r)
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APPENDIX E 247 P (al p p P (alp) p
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D APPENDIX E s s s s s s S T T T T
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APPENDIX E 251 IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY
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APPENDIX E 253 p p T (alp) (a/o) (0
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APPENDIX E P (a/s) P falsI 5 (alp)
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~ APPENDIX F 257 lOP = 5/9°C 1°C
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REFERENCES 259 Nemec, J.M. Nigg <st
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REFERENCES 261 Cochran, L.
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REFERENCES 263 Etzioni, A., 1985: M
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REFERENCES 265 Graham, B., 1992: An
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REFERENCES 267 Katz, R.W., 1993: To
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REFERENCES 269 Mesthene, E.G., 1967
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REFERENCES 271 south Florida. Part
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REFERENCES 273 Smith, K., 1992: Env
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REFERENCES 275 Wolensky, R.P. <stro
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INDEX 277 eye wall concentric eye w
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INDEX silver iodide 112 Simpson, Ro
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