Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

HURRICANE IMPACfS 133
areas as they are of any fail-proof forecasting, warning, <strong>and</strong> observing systems"
(Hebert, Jarrell <strong>and</strong> Mayfield 1993).
While loss of life has decreased, the economic <strong>and</strong> social costs of hurricanes
are large <strong>and</strong> rising. A rough calculation shows that annual losses to hurricanes
have been in the billions of dollars (cf. Sugg 1967; see Appendix B). In the
United States alone, after adjusting for inflation, tropical cyclones were
responsible for an annual average of$I.6 billion for the period 1950-1989, $2.2
billion over 1950-1995, <strong>and</strong> $6.2 billion over 1989-1995 (Hebert, Jarrell <strong>and</strong>
Mayfield 1996). A recent study sought to "normalize" the damages associated
with past storms to 1995 values; that is, to assess damages from past storms had
they occurred in 1995 (pielke <strong>and</strong> L<strong>and</strong>sea 1997). The study found $366 billion
over 1925-1995, or about $5 billion annually (see Appendix B). For comparison,
China suffered an average $1.3 billion (unadjusted) in damages related
to typhoons over the period 1986-1994 (World Meteorological Organization,
various years). Significant tropical cyclone damages are also experienced by
other countries including those in southeast Asia (including Japan, China, <strong>and</strong>
Korea), along the Indian Ocean (including Australia, Madagascar, <strong>and</strong> the
southeast Mrican coast), isl<strong>and</strong>s of the Caribbean, <strong>and</strong> in Central America
(including Mexico). While a full accounting of global damages has yet to be
documented <strong>and</strong> made accessible, it is surely in the tens of billions of dollars
annually (e.g. Southern 1992).
Experts have estimated that worldwide, tropical cyclones result in approxi- "1J
mately 12000 to 23 000 deaths (Southern 1992; Smith 1992, Bryant 1991). ,
Tropical cyclones have been responsible for a number of the largest losses of
life due to a natural disaster. For instance, in April 1991, a cyclone made
l<strong>and</strong>fall in Bangladesh resulting in the loss of more than 140000 lives <strong>and</strong>
disrupting more than 10 million people (<strong>and</strong> leading to $2 billion in damages;
Southern 1992). A similar storm resulted in the loss of more than 250000
lives in November 1970. China, India, Thail<strong>and</strong>, <strong>and</strong> the Philippines have also
seen loss of life in the thous<strong>and</strong>s in recent years.
While the hurricane threat to the US Atlantic <strong>and</strong> Gulf coasts has been
widely recognized, it has only been in recent years, following Hurricane
Andrew, that many public <strong>and</strong> private decision-makers have sought to better
underst<strong>and</strong> the economic <strong>and</strong> social magnitude of the threat. Of notable
concern is the vulnerability of industries with large production plants <strong>and</strong>
facilities. For instance, according to R.H. Simpson, some years ago Dow
Chemical shut down a plant as a hurricane approached, costing $10 million
plus another $1.5 million for each day of lost production (R. Simpson 1997,
personal communication). Also of concern is the storage of vast supplies of
petrochemicals in vulnerable coastal locations on l<strong>and</strong> very near sea level (R.
Simpson 1997, personal communication). And finally, the insurance industry
is also particularly vulnerable to hurricane impacts. (Appendix B provides
data on hurricane damages <strong>and</strong> loss of life in the United States for the period
1900-1995.)