Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

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HURRICANE IMPACTS 5.2.2 Storm surge analysis 121 A storm surge can be deadly. In 1900, up to 12000 deaths occurred in Galveston, Texas, primarily as a result of the storm surge that was associated with a Gulf of Mexico hurricane (Chapter 1). In 1957, a storm surge, which was associated with Hurricane Audrey <strong>and</strong> which was over 12 feet (3.5 meters) <strong>and</strong> extended as far inl<strong>and</strong> as 25 miles (40 kilometers) in this particularly low-lying region, was the major cause of the death of 390 people in Louisiana. In September 1928, the waters of Lake Okeechobee, driven by hurricane winds, overflowed the banks of the lake <strong>and</strong> were the main cause of more than 1800 deaths (Chapter 1). Areas to be evacuated due to storm surge in the case of hurricane l<strong>and</strong>fall are determined through a model developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) called SLOSH (Sea, Lake, <strong>and</strong> Overl<strong>and</strong> Surges from <strong>Hurricanes</strong>; Jarvinen <strong>and</strong> Lawrence 1985). The SLOSH model is used to define floodprone areas in 31 "SLOSH basins" along the US Gulf of Mexico <strong>and</strong> Atlantic coasts (Figure 5.2). Figure 5.3a shows Charleston, South Carolina, as a closeup example of a SLOSH basin. Determination of storm surge vulnerabilities is the result of an interagency <strong>and</strong> intergovernmental process funded by NOAA, FEMA, Army Corps of Engineers, <strong>and</strong> various state <strong>and</strong> local governments (BTFFDR 1995). From development through application the SLOSH process takes about two years. Because coastlines are constantly changing due to human <strong>and</strong> natural forces, the SLOSH process is never completed. A SLOSH model is developed through a number of steps for each basin. First, the Techniques Development Laboratory (TI])L) of the US National Weather Service (NWS) obtains water depth <strong>and</strong> I l<strong>and</strong> height data for a particular basin to input to the model. Second, the model is tested against historical analogues in the basin, with model runs compared against empirical data from past storms. Third, TDL, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), <strong>and</strong> local officials refine the water depth <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> height data through reconnaissance of the basin. They check for barriers such as highways in order to improve the accuracy of the input data. Mter final testing for accuracy, each SLOSH model is declared "operational" <strong>and</strong> is turned over to the NHC for applications. I Evacuation strategies based on the SLOSH model output are generally developed in three phases. First, the NHC simulates between 250 <strong>and</strong> 500 hypothetical storms in each basin to develop a composite map of potential storm surge inundation for various families of storms (based on strength, movement, <strong>and</strong> point of l<strong>and</strong>fall). A composite map (called a Maximum Envelope Of Water, or MEOW) is developed to compensate for errors <strong>and</strong> uncertainties in the forecast track. Because the MEOW represents maximum storm surge from several hundred storms, it compensates for any small forecast error in the track of a particular approaching storm. In the second phase. local NWS, state <strong>and</strong> local government, FEMA, <strong>and</strong> Army Corps of
122 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPACT ON SOCIETY 1 .Boston Harbor 2. NarragansetV Buzzards Bay 3. New York/ Long Isl<strong>and</strong> Sound 4. Delaware Bay 5. Atlantic City 6. Ocean City 7. Chesapeake Bay 8. Norfolk 9. Pamlico Sound 10. Wilmington, N.C.! Myrtle Beach 11. Charleston Harbor 12. Savannah/Hilton Head 13. Brunswick/Jacksonville 14. Lake Okeechobee 15. Cape Canaveral 16. Palm Beach ~ --' 17. BiscayneBay 18. Florida Bay 19. Charlotte Harbor 20. Tampa Bay 21. Cedar Keys 22. Apalachicola Bay 23. Pensacola Bay 24. Mobile Bay 25. Lake Pontchartrainl New Oleans 26. Vermillion Bay 27. Sabine Lake 28. Galveston Bay 29. Matagorda Bay 30. Corpus Christi Bay 31. Laguna Madre ~3J 0 10J 7/' ~ '\1 'iL4,?Is Figure 5.2 The 31 SLOSH basins along the US Gulf <strong>and</strong> Atlantic coasts Engineers officials attend a workshop held by the NHC on the use of the SLOSH model. The workshop covers development <strong>and</strong> application of the model. Finally, the US Army Corps of Engineers <strong>and</strong> various state <strong>and</strong> local officials complete evacuation studies based upon the SLOSH model estimates of inundated areas. The result of the application of the SLOSH model is a definition of the hurricane evacuation problem facing the particular SLOSH basin. Figure 5.3b illustrates the computed storm surge <strong>and</strong> observations associated with the l<strong>and</strong>fall of Hurricane Hugo in 1989. 5.2.3 Winds The strong winds of a hurricane can produce considerable structural damage <strong>and</strong> risk to life from flying debris, even inl<strong>and</strong> from the coast. The damage
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Hurricanes
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Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & So
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Dedication Foreword. Preface. Conte
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CONTENTS 5.3 5.2.3 WindY. . 5.2.4 R
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Foreword Before the mid-l 960s, stu
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X11 FOREWORD The lessons of Camille
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XVI PREFACE One of the fundamental
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XVlll PREFACE about the need for so
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2 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
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4 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
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INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcnON: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND H
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INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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I I I I A -Nr"1v ~ r/) ,:,.," 0- 0-
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INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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21 INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, A
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INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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CHAPTER 2 The US Hurricane Problem
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM human acti
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM of their p
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 37 2.1.3 S
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 39 activit
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Figure 2.3
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM on an intr
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.1
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TIm us HURRICANE PROBLEM ~ I (a) -.
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM emissions)
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 51 Figure
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM (ODDs) 193
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 55 Figure
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM preparedne
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 59 threat
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nIB US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.3
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 63 Paralle
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Congress,
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 67 Appendi
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TRC!>PICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH
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Page 109 and 110: HURRICANE FORECASTS Figure 4.1 The
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Page 115 and 116: HURRICANE Fa RECASTS While the news
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Page 119 and 120: 102 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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Page 135 and 136: CHAPTERS When a hurricane forms, it
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172 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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APPENDIX A CHAPTER! Byerly, R., 199
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40 000 30 000 20'000 10 000 APPENDI
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APPENDIX C Selected Data on Tropica
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Figure C.4 Cont: Tracks of intense
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'-'2 ..~ ,-..~ \OQ. ~~ -I" -(') 3.
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APPENDIX C 209 '";ij' 40 Q) ~ C) Q)
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211 APPENDIX D Table D.2 Eastern No
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APPENDIX D Table D.6 Western Austra
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APPENDIX D Table D.8 Fiji Region Na
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APPENDIX D Table 0.10 Southeast Ind
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on "'-va , £.c 0 I::.cp. V'O cn ,'
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UJ ~ UJ P-'-'" s~~ 0 In + In O-o>,V
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APPENDIX E 233
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APPENDIX E In sum, TDS provides an
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APPENDIX 0 ~ION E 237 A period of t
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APPENDIX E IF SITUATION W~S P (alp)
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29. APPENDIX E p (0) 5 (a/p) T (alp
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APPENDIX E p (0) p p S T (a/o) (a/p
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APPENDIX E p p 5 p (alp) (r) S (r)
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APPENDIX E 247 P (al p p P (alp) p
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D APPENDIX E s s s s s s S T T T T
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APPENDIX E 251 IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY
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APPENDIX E 253 p p T (alp) (a/o) (0
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APPENDIX E P (a/s) P falsI 5 (alp)
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~ APPENDIX F 257 lOP = 5/9°C 1°C
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REFERENCES 259 Nemec, J.M. Nigg <st
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REFERENCES 261 Cochran, L.
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REFERENCES 263 Etzioni, A., 1985: M
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REFERENCES 265 Graham, B., 1992: An
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REFERENCES 267 Katz, R.W., 1993: To
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REFERENCES 269 Mesthene, E.G., 1967
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REFERENCES 271 south Florida. Part
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REFERENCES 273 Smith, K., 1992: Env
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REFERENCES 275 Wolensky, R.P. <stro
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INDEX 277 eye wall concentric eye w
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INDEX silver iodide 112 Simpson, Ro
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