Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

136 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPACT ON SOCIETY
Table 5.1 Comparison of 1994 <strong>and</strong> 1995 hurricane seasons
Named storms
<strong>Hurricanes</strong>
Intense hurricanes
Societal impacts
Damage (billion US $)
Deaths
1994 1995
7
3 0
>1.0
1175
19
11 5
8-10
118
A comparison of the 1994 <strong>and</strong> 1995 hurricane seasons illustrates the problem
of quantification. In terms of physical characteristics, the two years were
very different: 1994 was one of the quietest years on record, while 1995 was
among the most active. In terms of impacts, both saw extreme effects on
society, yet in very different ways. In 1995, in the Atlantic Ocean basin, there
were as much as $10 billion in economic damages due mainly to storms Luis,
Marilyn, <strong>and</strong> Opal, while 1994 saw only $1 billion in losses. In 1994, however,
1175 people died, mainly in Haiti due to extreme flooding, while in 1995 118
died (see Table 5.1). The two seasons illustrate the different impacts that can
be associated with different years: a quiet season does not necessarily mean
less impact: consider that Andrew made l<strong>and</strong>fall during the quietest four-year
period in at least 50 years (L<strong>and</strong>sea et al. 1996).
Aggregation: the problem of benefits
Estimates of hurricane impacts usually concentrate on the costs <strong>and</strong> rarely
consider the benefits associated with a storm (Chang 1984). Consider the
following examples: the construction contractor called upon to repair <strong>and</strong>
rebuild in the aftermath of a hurricane; an insurance company that is able to
push through higher rates in the aftermath of a storm; a community able to
restore itself to a level of productivity greater than it enjoyed prior to the
storm with the assistance of federal disaster relief. Arguably, each realizes
tangible benefits in some way from the storm. Should such benefits be subtracted
from a storm's total cost? Another example is the sea wall that the city
of Galveston built in the aftermath of the 1900 hurricane. In 1983 that sea
wall saved lives <strong>and</strong> property from Alicia's unexpected fury (Chapter 1).
Should the losses avoided in Galveston in 1983 as a direct result of the lessons
learned <strong>and</strong> policies implemented in the aftermath of the 1900 disaster be
attributed as a benefit of the 1900 storm? Such questions of benefits confound
accurate determination of a bottom-line cost associated with a hurricane's
impact. Assessments of damages are improved by specifying who suffers costs
associated with a storm's impact. The net damage associated with a hurricane
may be less important than the suffering of particular individuals <strong>and</strong> groups.
Bottom-line assessments generally fail to consider who wins <strong>and</strong> who loses.