Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

TIm us HURRICANE PROBLEM ~ I
(a)
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,
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Figure 2.6 Analyses of l<strong>and</strong>fall probabilities from (a) Simpson <strong>and</strong> Lawrence (1971)
<strong>and</strong> (b) Ho et al. (1987) for purposes of comparison
2.2.2 Hurricane incidence <strong>and</strong> climate change
It has been suggested that hurricane intensity, occurrence, <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>fall
frequency may be affected by human-caused global warming. One hypothesis
is that the oceans would warm, thereby creating the potential for more intense
hurricanes (Emanuel 1987) (although Gray (1990) argues that variability in
hurricane incidence <strong>and</strong> intensity is a function of natural climatic variability).
Based on such scientific hypotheses, a number of groups have argued that the
recent impacts of <strong>Hurricanes</strong> Andrew <strong>and</strong> Hugo are evidence for global
warming (e.g. Leggett 1994).