Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

XVI PREFACE
One of the fundamental assumptions that we bring to this book is that
improving policies in response to the hurricane problem first requires that the
problem be well understood <strong>and</strong> defined. Our sense, as discussed in the book, is
that in many respects the problem posed by hurricanes to society is not well
defined. In assuming that developing more effective solutions depends upon first
underst<strong>and</strong>ing the problem being faced, we do not seek to imply that we can
either fully underst<strong>and</strong> the problem or can develop solutions without the hardearned
knowledge gained from practical experience. In fact, we do not believe
that there is a solution to the hurricane problem. Rather, there will be many
solutions in many different places. What works for Miami will not necessarily
work for New Orleans, or for Kingston, Jamaica for that matter. Most
"solutions" will have to be field tested <strong>and</strong> evaluated, with successful policies
kept, refined, <strong>and</strong> extended, <strong>and</strong> failed policies documented <strong>and</strong> terminated. We
intend this book as a starting point -a large-scale map of the policy problem
that leaves the invention, selection, <strong>and</strong> implementation of specific policy
alternatives to those more capable to the task. We hope that with the rough map
that we provide, the individual, community, or national decision-maker will be
more prepared to fill in details based on the particular context that they face.
A second, broader theme of this book is the relationship between science <strong>and</strong>
society. In recent years, United States science policy has witnessed important
changes, among them calls by policy-makers <strong>and</strong> the public that federally
funded research show more direct usefulness <strong>and</strong> value with respect to society's
needs (of course, dem<strong>and</strong>s for increased accountability of government go well
beyond science). We feel strongly that accountability of science is healthy for
both the sponsors <strong>and</strong> conductors of research. Yet one characteristic of the
changing environment of science policy is that the scientific community lacks
effective methods <strong>and</strong> experience to demonstrate its value to society.
We feel that the atmospheric sciences, <strong>and</strong> the area of hurricane research
specifically, is particularly well suited to demonstrate the value of its research to
society. Of course, research is of little use or value unless its results can be
incorporated into actual decisions. (We also recognize the intrinsic value of
knowledge.) To be made useful, scientific research must be integrated with the
needs of people seeking to address problems or opportunities that they face.
Consequently, we believe that a problem-oriented approach will set the stage for
identification of those aspects of decisions that might be improved with the
results of research, those decision processes that might be altered to take advantage
of information produced through research, <strong>and</strong> importantly -to identify
those aspects of the hurricane problem that are largely independent of scientific
research. We believe that by beginning with the problems posed to society by
hurricanes, it will be relatively straightforward to identify where current <strong>and</strong>
future research will likely have the greatest payoffs. Many of these payoffs will
likely come in decision contexts <strong>and</strong> situations different than expected.
In order to assist the reader who requires more information, detail, or a
more sophisticated discussion of the various topics that we cover, we have