Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

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66 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPACf ON SOCIETY one measure of risk is l<strong>and</strong>fall frequency based upon the climatological record. Risk can also be defined analytically, e.g. through scenarios that move storms to different times <strong>and</strong> locations. For instance, what would the effects of the 1938 New Engl<strong>and</strong> hurricane be in 19981 Risks can also be evaluated in a more subjective manner, such as occurs when an individual decides whether or not to evacuate. In practice, determination of population <strong>and</strong> property at risk at particular locales involves the assessment of coastal inundation due to storm surge based upon computer models of l<strong>and</strong>falling storms. People vulnerable to storm surge are generally considered to be most at risk due to a hurricane l<strong>and</strong>fall. Hurricane winds <strong>and</strong> flooding also threaten people <strong>and</strong> property. Based upon determination of people <strong>and</strong> property at risk (however defined) actions are taken to reduce the risk. For example, building codes are designed based upon a community's expectation of hurricane incidence, <strong>and</strong> evacuation plans are also designed based upon climatological factors. Under the conventional definition of the hurricane problem, hurricane policy is centered on reducing "risk" associated with the storm's impact. In general, however, such policies lack a means to fully integrate existing preparedness efforts in the definition of hurricane risk. One example of an effort to include preparedness in definition of risk is the Building Code Effectiveness Grading Schedule (BCEGS) created by the Insurance Institute for Property Loss Reduction (BTFFDR 1995). The BCEGS is a ranking of community implementation of building code enforcement based on their budget allocated for that purpose <strong>and</strong> the qualification of their inspectors. Preparedness assessment In order to assess a community's preparedness, it is necessary to assess the "health" of the various decision processes in place to reduce vulnerability. A healthy decision process will meet criteria of content <strong>and</strong> procedure (see Lasswell (1971) for a working list of such criteria). Assessment of content is relatively straightforward: Is there an up-to-date SLOSH model analysis? Is there an evacuation plan? Are there shelters? Do building codes accurately consider climatology? Assessment of the procedural aspects of decision processes is a more daunting task, requiring close attention to the who, what, where, when, <strong>and</strong> why of particular decisions. In order to assess the "health" of a particular decision process, one must first have a "map" of the process with respect to important decisions relevant to reducing vulnerability. In the context of an approaching hurricane, important decisions might include whether or not to order an evacuation (<strong>and</strong> who to evacuate, when), how to enforce building codes, or the amount of resourc~s to put into education of the public about the hurricane threat. In 1992, Lee County Florida prepared a decision process map which can be used as a starting point in efforts to determine the health of preparedness (see
THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 67 Appendix E). Such a map, customized for the decision routines of a particular user, provides a useful starting point for the analyst seeking to answer the question "How prepared are we?" Of course, assessment of an entire community's preparedness is a significant task that would require attention <strong>and</strong> resources.
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Hurricanes
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Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & So
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Dedication Foreword. Preface. Conte
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CONTENTS 5.3 5.2.3 WindY. . 5.2.4 R
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Foreword Before the mid-l 960s, stu
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X11 FOREWORD The lessons of Camille
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XVI PREFACE One of the fundamental
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XVlll PREFACE about the need for so
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2 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
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4 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
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INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcnON: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND H
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INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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Page 35 and 36: INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 37 and 38: 21 INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, A
Page 39 and 40: INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
Page 41 and 42: INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 43 and 44: INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 45 and 46: INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 47 and 48: CHAPTER 2 The US Hurricane Problem
Page 49 and 50: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM human acti
Page 51 and 52: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM of their p
Page 53 and 54: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 37 2.1.3 S
Page 55 and 56: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 39 activit
Page 57 and 58: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Figure 2.3
Page 59 and 60: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM on an intr
Page 61 and 62: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.1
Page 63 and 64: TIm us HURRICANE PROBLEM ~ I (a) -.
Page 65 and 66: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM emissions)
Page 67 and 68: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 51 Figure
Page 69 and 70: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM (ODDs) 193
Page 71 and 72: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 55 Figure
Page 73 and 74: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM preparedne
Page 75 and 76: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 59 threat
Page 77 and 78: nIB US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.3
Page 79 and 80: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 63 Paralle
Page 81: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Congress,
Page 85 and 86: TRC!>PICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH
Page 87 and 88: 71 TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EART
Page 89 and 90: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH F
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Page 103 and 104: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 3
Page 105 and 106: 35 ,~ 20 1201 55 TROPICAL CYCLONES
Page 107 and 108: TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 9
Page 109 and 110: HURRICANE FORECASTS Figure 4.1 The
Page 111 and 112: * t " , " ' " i : , , j !' \ HURRIC
Page 113 and 114: HURRICANE FORECASTS (e) 7AM ~ ..i~~
Page 115 and 116: HURRICANE Fa RECASTS While the news
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Page 119 and 120: 102 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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116 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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CHAPTERS When a hurricane forms, it
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I ~..;. 126 HURRICANES: THEm NATURE
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~'\ '" 128 \ '-- HURRICANES: THEIR
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CHAPTER? 7.1 INTRODUCflON As recoun
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APPENDIX A CHAPTER! Byerly, R., 199
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40 000 30 000 20'000 10 000 APPENDI
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APPENDIX C Selected Data on Tropica
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Figure C.4 Cont: Tracks of intense
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'-'2 ..~ ,-..~ \OQ. ~~ -I" -(') 3.
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APPENDIX C 209 '";ij' 40 Q) ~ C) Q)
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211 APPENDIX D Table D.2 Eastern No
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APPENDIX D Table D.6 Western Austra
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APPENDIX D Table D.8 Fiji Region Na
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APPENDIX D Table 0.10 Southeast Ind
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: 8. ~A ". ~ 00 tU : V ~ ~ ~ V z 8,
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on "'-va , £.c 0 I::.cp. V'O cn ,'
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. OK OK U ~ ,. , , ..' ..~ '"' Z !
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UJ ~ UJ P-'-'" s~~ 0 In + In O-o>,V
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~ =.d.- ~ 0 ..., E-' g S u 'U~ =.g'
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APPENDIX E 233
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APPENDIX E In sum, TDS provides an
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APPENDIX 0 ~ION E 237 A period of t
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APPENDIX E IF SITUATION W~S P (alp)
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29. APPENDIX E p (0) 5 (a/p) T (alp
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APPENDIX E p (0) p p S T (a/o) (a/p
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APPENDIX E p p 5 p (alp) (r) S (r)
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APPENDIX E 247 P (al p p P (alp) p
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D APPENDIX E s s s s s s S T T T T
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APPENDIX E 251 IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY
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APPENDIX E 253 p p T (alp) (a/o) (0
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APPENDIX E P (a/s) P falsI 5 (alp)
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~ APPENDIX F 257 lOP = 5/9°C 1°C
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REFERENCES 259 Nemec, J.M. Nigg <st
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REFERENCES 261 Cochran, L.
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REFERENCES 263 Etzioni, A., 1985: M
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REFERENCES 265 Graham, B., 1992: An
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REFERENCES 267 Katz, R.W., 1993: To
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REFERENCES 269 Mesthene, E.G., 1967
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REFERENCES 271 south Florida. Part
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REFERENCES 273 Smith, K., 1992: Env
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REFERENCES 275 Wolensky, R.P. <stro
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INDEX 277 eye wall concentric eye w
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INDEX silver iodide 112 Simpson, Ro
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