Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

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INDEX 277 eye wall concentric eye wall cycles 73 defined 72 double eye wall 73 illustration 78 radius of maximum winds 74 feeder b<strong>and</strong>s defined 72 FEMA 58, 113, 162, 168, 171 forecasts 92 average error 107 example of Hurricane Hugo 106 interaction of steering current <strong>and</strong> hurricane 99-101 internal flow 102 movement 92 steering current 92-8 defined 93 illustrated 93 track, intensity, <strong>and</strong> seasonal forecasting 84, 94-8, 101-3, 219 attempts at modification 111-12 intensity change predictions 106-8 seasonal predictions 109-11 track predictions 102-5 value to society 113-17 forecast value 113-17 Frederic 20, 23-4 frequency Atlantic Basin (1950-1996) 86, 89 world-wide 218 fundamentals 181 knowledge to action 181 ten important lessons 182-90 Galveston (1900) 19 geographic <strong>and</strong> seasonal distribution 68, 85 global illustration 84 in the Atlantic Ocean Basin 87-90 movement 85-6 origin 85 giant hurricanes 88 global tropical cyclones tracks illustration of 84 Gray, William 40-1, 109-11, 184 guide for local hurricane decision makers 233-55 Gulfstream IV 109 Hazel 20, 22-3 high shear environment 79 illustrated 80 Hugo 21, 24 hurricane defined 15 in the past century 19-24 North American history 16-18 hypercanes defined 78 impacts 118 ocean 118 l<strong>and</strong> impacts at the Coast <strong>and</strong> a Short Distance Inl<strong>and</strong> 119 inl<strong>and</strong> impacts 127-30 rainfall forecast 129 observed 120, 125-6, 130, 132 storm surge 119-20 storm surge analysis 121 tornadoes 120, 1~~5-6 observed 127-8 winds 119, 122-4 societal impacts 131.-3 estimating damages 134-6 aggregation: the problem of benefits 136 attribution: the problem of causation 135 comparison: the problem of demographic change 137 contingency 134-5 quantification: the problem with measurement, 135-6 insurance 145-7, 176-7 intensification 80, 87-90 intensity defined 39-40 predicting 39-40 June solstice defined 87 Labor Day, Florida Keys Storm of 1935 77 l<strong>and</strong>fall frequency 43-6 impacts 43-6, 118-38 l<strong>and</strong> use 143-4 largest radius of tropical storm winds 87 latent heating 71
278 INDEX life of a tropical cyclone 68 birth <strong>and</strong> growth 68 criteria for development <strong>and</strong> intensification 87-90 cyclonic circulation 82 high pressure 82 decay 79-81 maturity 68-71 major hurricane l<strong>and</strong>falls on US mainl<strong>and</strong> coast (1901-1996) 206-8 maximum gusts 124 maximum potential intensity 78 mean direction of motion of tropical cyclones world-wide 84, 219 MEOW 121 midget hurricanes 88 models BAM 105 CLIPER 102 GFDL 105 MRF 105 NHC 90 102 UK 90 105 VICBAR 105 model simulations eye <strong>and</strong> eye wall 78 horizontal cross section 79 hurricane wind circulation 76 storm surge 123 track 101 modification 111-13 movement 85-6, 92 names Arafura Sea <strong>and</strong> Gulf of Carpentaria 211 Atlantic 18, 209 Eastern Australia Region 214 Eastern North Pacific 210 Fiji Region 215 Northern Australia Region 212 Solomon Sea <strong>and</strong> Gulf of Papua 211 Southeast Indian Ocean 217 Southwest Indian Ocean 216 Western Australia Region 213 Western North Pacific Ocean 217 National Hurricane Center 102 National Oceanographic <strong>and</strong> Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 109 New Engl<strong>and</strong> (1938) 22 normal to large hurricanes 88 normal weather event 140-1 number of tropical cyclones <strong>and</strong> hurricanes (1950-1996) 203 observations of hurricane structure 77 surface features 119 oscillation in movement 102 outflow jets defined 100 P-3 Orions 109 polar lows defined 85 policymaker defined 141 population at risk 49-54 preparedness 56-9 prescriptive assessments 115-17 pressure systems Azores High 87 Bermuda High 87 defined 68 Project Stormfury 112-13 property at risk 54-6 rainfall forecast 129 observed 120, 125-6, 130, 132 rapid acceleration 99 relation between wind speed <strong>and</strong> destructive force 124 retired names 20-1 Saffir-Simpson Damage-Potential scale defined 16-17 illustrated 90 satellite images infrared 73 visible 75 science <strong>and</strong> policy problems as an extreme meteorological event 15 extreme weather events 25 science in service to society 26-9 science policy 14, 26-30 seasonal predictions 109-11 severe cyclonic storms 85 SHIFOR defined 108 SHIPS defined 108
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Hurricanes
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Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & So
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Dedication Foreword. Preface. Conte
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CONTENTS 5.3 5.2.3 WindY. . 5.2.4 R
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Foreword Before the mid-l 960s, stu
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X11 FOREWORD The lessons of Camille
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XVI PREFACE One of the fundamental
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XVlll PREFACE about the need for so
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2 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
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4 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
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INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcnON: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND H
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INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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I I I I A -Nr"1v ~ r/) ,:,.," 0- 0-
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INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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21 INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, A
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INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
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INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
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CHAPTER 2 The US Hurricane Problem
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM human acti
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM of their p
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 37 2.1.3 S
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 39 activit
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Figure 2.3
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM on an intr
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.1
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TIm us HURRICANE PROBLEM ~ I (a) -.
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM emissions)
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 51 Figure
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM (ODDs) 193
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 55 Figure
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM preparedne
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 59 threat
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nIB US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.3
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 63 Paralle
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Congress,
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 67 Appendi
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TRC!>PICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH
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71 TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EART
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH F
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH (
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH o
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH N
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH I
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 3
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35 ,~ 20 1201 55 TROPICAL CYCLONES
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 9
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HURRICANE FORECASTS Figure 4.1 The
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* t " , " ' " i : , , j !' \ HURRIC
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HURRICANE FORECASTS (e) 7AM ~ ..i~~
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HURRICANE Fa RECASTS While the news
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~-~ "'"00 ;-:'O-= -=-~"'" a",.- .->
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102 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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~ 0, 2 ~ 2 ... ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 ':! Is I~
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CHAPTERS When a hurricane forms, it
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I ~..;. 126 HURRICANES: THEm NATURE
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~'\ '" 128 \ '-- HURRICANES: THEIR
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CHAPTER? 7.1 INTRODUCflON As recoun
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APPENDIX A CHAPTER! Byerly, R., 199
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40 000 30 000 20'000 10 000 APPENDI
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APPENDIX C Selected Data on Tropica
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Figure C.4 Cont: Tracks of intense
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'-'2 ..~ ,-..~ \OQ. ~~ -I" -(') 3.
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APPENDIX C 209 '";ij' 40 Q) ~ C) Q)
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211 APPENDIX D Table D.2 Eastern No
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APPENDIX D Table D.6 Western Austra
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APPENDIX D Table D.8 Fiji Region Na
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APPENDIX D Table 0.10 Southeast Ind
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: 8. ~A ". ~ 00 tU : V ~ ~ ~ V z 8,
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on "'-va , £.c 0 I::.cp. V'O cn ,'
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. OK OK U ~ ,. , , ..' ..~ '"' Z !
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Page 270 and 271: D APPENDIX E s s s s s s S T T T T
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Page 280 and 281: REFERENCES 259 Nemec, J.M. Nigg <st
Page 282 and 283: REFERENCES 261 Cochran, L.
Page 284 and 285: REFERENCES 263 Etzioni, A., 1985: M
Page 286 and 287: REFERENCES 265 Graham, B., 1992: An
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Page 290 and 291: REFERENCES 269 Mesthene, E.G., 1967
Page 292 and 293: REFERENCES 271 south Florida. Part
Page 294 and 295: REFERENCES 273 Smith, K., 1992: Env
Page 296 and 297: REFERENCES 275 Wolensky, R.P. <stro
Page 300: INDEX silver iodide 112 Simpson, Ro
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