Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

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X11 FOREWORD The lessons of Camille supplied a bridge of underst<strong>and</strong>ing between the physical <strong>and</strong> social sciences <strong>and</strong> engineering. It was a convincing example of the need to view the tasks of mitigation in holistic perspective as a multidisciplinary problem of optimizing not only science <strong>and</strong> technology to produce warnings <strong>and</strong> preparedness methods, but also concomitantly the analysis <strong>and</strong> societal responses in the face of a hurricane threat. Perhaps the most important catalyst in the ongoing efforts to forge public policies, methods, <strong>and</strong> practices to minimize potential losses in disasters was the establishment at the University of Colorado in Boulder of a Natural Hazards Center, under the leadership of Gilbert F. White. That institute not only conducted its own programs of research on this subject, but sponsored annual conferences of leading researchers in the fields of physical <strong>and</strong> social science, <strong>and</strong> policy-level officials of state <strong>and</strong> federal government to review the progress of research <strong>and</strong> probe the more difficult problems encountered in each area, including policy planning. This book, primarily devoted to the definition <strong>and</strong> analysis of the problems to be faced in pursuing realistic goals for reducing potential losses from hurricanes, is rooted in the knowledge gained from, or stimulated across the nation by, this Center. This book, which begins with a riveting description of the hurricane disaster scene from eyewitness <strong>and</strong> authoritative accounts, addresses the question: "What is the social importance of funds poured into hurricane research <strong>and</strong> supporting technology?" Today, Congress <strong>and</strong> funding agencies are dem<strong>and</strong>ing clearer evidence of benefits to be expected from the investment of further funds on hurricane mitigation research. It is argued that, even though annual losses of life have diminished dramatically, economic losses have nevertheless skyrocketed. Moreover, from overall societal considerations, we are more vulnerable than ever before -more people are at risk <strong>and</strong> incredibly more property is in harm's way. The conclusion is drawn that the present hurricane policy of "minimizing loss of lives <strong>and</strong> property" is not a particularly useful way of framing the goal of a US hurricane policy. It is suggested that a better approach would be to define the goals as a function of societal vulnerability. From this baseline, the authors supply an extensive description of the physical nature of the hurricane <strong>and</strong> of its prediction, followed by an analysis of the societal problems of response to warnings <strong>and</strong> to the administration of mitigation measures -preparedness, relocation, <strong>and</strong> recovery. The challenge posed is to redefine the policy goals of the US hurricane program in terms of minimizing the potential societal vulnerability considering the realistic limitations of warning skills <strong>and</strong> of societal responses. While this treatise does not purport to supply explicit answers, it does provide a framework for planning <strong>and</strong> seeking answers to the questions that are addressed. This book is the unique product of a father-son effort, both well equipped by training <strong>and</strong> experience. Roger Pielke Sr spent his maturing years as a research meteorologist <strong>and</strong> theoretician in the milieu of NOAA's National Hurricane Center. Always the kind of theoretician eager to underst<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong>
FOREWORD xiii become involved in the application of his science, he was usually to be found "deep in the front line trenches" during the battle of wits with hurricanes at that center. From his auspicious start at Miami <strong>and</strong> later at the University of Virginia <strong>and</strong> Colorado State University, he went on to become a leading authority in modeling smaller-scale weather circulations <strong>and</strong> disturbances, <strong>and</strong> author of several textbooks, including one on hurricanes. Roger Pielke Jr, raised in the environment of hurricane concern at Miami, channeled his interests into social <strong>and</strong> policy aspects of the science/society relation. Today, he continues his research on public policy in regard to weather <strong>and</strong> climate at the Environmental <strong>and</strong> Societal <strong>Impacts</strong> Group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This father-son effort has profited from their respective complementary concerns, backgrounds, <strong>and</strong> experiences in addressing a complex problem of importance to us all. <strong>Their</strong> book should provide an excellent starting point <strong>and</strong> guide in the development of public policies <strong>and</strong> in planning the support <strong>and</strong> funding of public programs for disaster mitigation, including preparedness <strong>and</strong> recovery. R.H. Simpson
Page 2 and 3: Hurricanes
Page 4 and 5: Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & So
Page 6 and 7: Dedication Foreword. Preface. Conte
Page 8 and 9: CONTENTS 5.3 5.2.3 WindY. . 5.2.4 R
Page 10 and 11: Foreword Before the mid-l 960s, stu
Page 14 and 15: XVI PREFACE One of the fundamental
Page 16 and 17: XVlll PREFACE about the need for so
Page 18 and 19: 2 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
Page 20: 4 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IMPA
Page 23 and 24: INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
Page 25 and 26: INTRODUcnON: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND H
Page 27 and 28: INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 29 and 30: INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 31 and 32: INTRODUcrION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 33 and 34: I I I I A -Nr"1v ~ r/) ,:,.," 0- 0-
Page 35 and 36: INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 37 and 38: 21 INTRODUCTION: SCIENCE, POLICY, A
Page 39 and 40: INTRODUCfION: SCffiNCE, POLICY, AND
Page 45 and 46: INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND
Page 47 and 48: CHAPTER 2 The US Hurricane Problem
Page 49 and 50: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM human acti
Page 51 and 52: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM of their p
Page 53 and 54: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 37 2.1.3 S
Page 55 and 56: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 39 activit
Page 57 and 58: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Figure 2.3
Page 59 and 60: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM on an intr
Page 61 and 62: THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.1
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TIm us HURRICANE PROBLEM ~ I (a) -.
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM emissions)
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 51 Figure
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM (ODDs) 193
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 55 Figure
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM preparedne
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 59 threat
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nIB US HURRICANE PROBLEM Table 2.3
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 63 Paralle
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM Congress,
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THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 67 Appendi
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TRC!>PICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH
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71 TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EART
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH F
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH (
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH o
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH N
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH I
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 3
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35 ,~ 20 1201 55 TROPICAL CYCLONES
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TROPICAL CYCLONES ON PLANET EARTH 9
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HURRICANE FORECASTS Figure 4.1 The
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* t " , " ' " i : , , j !' \ HURRIC
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HURRICANE FORECASTS (e) 7AM ~ ..i~~
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HURRICANE Fa RECASTS While the news
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~-~ "'"00 ;-:'O-= -=-~"'" a",.- .->
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102 HURRICANES: THEIR NATURE AND IM
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~ 0, 2 ~ 2 ... ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 ':! Is I~
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CHAPTERS When a hurricane forms, it
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I ~..;. 126 HURRICANES: THEm NATURE
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~'\ '" 128 \ '-- HURRICANES: THEIR
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~ I 00- .". ~ -0( v 1a u .§ ~ ...g
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CHAPTER? 7.1 INTRODUCflON As recoun
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APPENDIX A CHAPTER! Byerly, R., 199
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40 000 30 000 20'000 10 000 APPENDI
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APPENDIX C Selected Data on Tropica
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Figure C.4 Cont: Tracks of intense
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'-'2 ..~ ,-..~ \OQ. ~~ -I" -(') 3.
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APPENDIX C 209 '";ij' 40 Q) ~ C) Q)
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211 APPENDIX D Table D.2 Eastern No
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APPENDIX D Table D.6 Western Austra
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APPENDIX D Table D.8 Fiji Region Na
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APPENDIX D Table 0.10 Southeast Ind
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: 8. ~A ". ~ 00 tU : V ~ ~ ~ V z 8,
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on "'-va , £.c 0 I::.cp. V'O cn ,'
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UJ ~ UJ P-'-'" s~~ 0 In + In O-o>,V
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APPENDIX E 233
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APPENDIX E In sum, TDS provides an
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APPENDIX 0 ~ION E 237 A period of t
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APPENDIX E IF SITUATION W~S P (alp)
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29. APPENDIX E p (0) 5 (a/p) T (alp
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APPENDIX E p (0) p p S T (a/o) (a/p
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APPENDIX E p p 5 p (alp) (r) S (r)
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APPENDIX E 247 P (al p p P (alp) p
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D APPENDIX E s s s s s s S T T T T
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APPENDIX E 251 IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY
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APPENDIX E 253 p p T (alp) (a/o) (0
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APPENDIX E P (a/s) P falsI 5 (alp)
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~ APPENDIX F 257 lOP = 5/9°C 1°C
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REFERENCES 259 Nemec, J.M. Nigg <st
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REFERENCES 261 Cochran, L.
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REFERENCES 263 Etzioni, A., 1985: M
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REFERENCES 265 Graham, B., 1992: An
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REFERENCES 267 Katz, R.W., 1993: To
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REFERENCES 269 Mesthene, E.G., 1967
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REFERENCES 271 south Florida. Part
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REFERENCES 273 Smith, K., 1992: Env
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REFERENCES 275 Wolensky, R.P. <stro
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INDEX 277 eye wall concentric eye w
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INDEX silver iodide 112 Simpson, Ro
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