Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

INTRODUCfION: SCIENCE, POLICY, AND HURRICANES
tropical cyclones by intensity.) At this time there was little need for any public or
private action, <strong>and</strong> perhaps not even awareness, as most tropical depressions fail
to develop into hurricanes, <strong>and</strong>, of the hurricanes that do form, few threaten the
United States. Yet "tropical depression three" was one which did fully develop
into a hurricane <strong>and</strong> then strike the US coast. Less than eight days after the first
discussion of "tropical depression three", south Florida was in the final hours of
the l<strong>and</strong>fall of Hurricane Andrew, the most powerful storm to strike the US
since Camille in 1969. Tropical depression three survived the difficult process of
hurricane growth to evolve from a loosely organized tropical system to become
the most devastating storm in US history. The following sections tell the story of
Hurricane Andrew in south Florida: not dealing comprehensively with the
event, but rather giving the reader a sense of context for the event <strong>and</strong> a
sampling of what happened in the communities of south Florida as Andrew
approached, made l<strong>and</strong>fall, <strong>and</strong> left.!
1.2.1 Forecast
On Monday, 17 August 1992, tropical depression number three was upgraded
to tropical stonn Andrew, the first named stonn of the year. At this time,
forecasters anticipated "only gradual strengthening" (Discussion Number 3).
During the day on Tuesday, satellite imagery suggested that Andrew was
weakening due to upper-level winds that were shearing the stonn. On
Wednesday, 19 August, the first reconnaissance flights flew into the stonn to
gather meteorological data. By late Wednesday afternoon, forecasters
cautioned decision-makers that "it is much too early to speculate whether
Andrew will make l<strong>and</strong>fall" (Discussion Number 12). Forecasters concluded
that the "system still has to go through one more night of somewhat hostile
winds aloft. If Andrew is not too damaged after that. ..there is a potential for
strengthening for the remainder of the forecast period" (Discussion Number
12). Meanwhile, coastal residents went about their nonnal routines: to those
outside the forecast community, Andrew was not yet a tangible threat.
On Thursday morning, 20 August, reconnaissance flights indicated that the
stonn had fared poorly during the night. Forecasters noted that "the struggle
may be ending soon," but warned that "satellite pictures are still impressive for
a system that has gone through such a struggle" (Discussion Number 15). Later
that afternoon it had become apparent that the stonn had survived the period
1 The following sections rely primarily on the extensive coverage of the storm provided by The
Miami Herald. The newspaper dedicated a number of special editions to the storm <strong>and</strong> in the
weeks <strong>and</strong> months following the event published thous<strong>and</strong>s of articles on Andrew's impact <strong>and</strong> the
public's response. A search of the Miami Herald for the period 16 August to 31 December 1992
conducted resulted in a tabulation of close to a thous<strong>and</strong> articles on the storm <strong>and</strong> its impacts.
The Herald's excellent coverage is a valuable resource for additional research into the storm's
societal impacts. Of course, any narrative of the event cannot hope to convey the magnitude <strong>and</strong>
severity of the disaster felt by the residents of Dade County, south of Miami.
3