Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM
Congress, have concluded that the reason for the observed rise in damages
must be more frequent <strong>and</strong> powerful storms. Yet what has changed over the
past several decades is the amount of people <strong>and</strong> property at risk to hurricane
impacts in coastal locations. It is also arguable that during this period
resources devoted by society to hurricane mitigation efforts have not kept pace
with development.
Vulnerability assessment is by definition a multidisciplinary process. A
reliable assessment of a society's vulnerability to hurricanes would necessarily
include the following disciplines or representatives of areas of knowledge:
climatology, meteorology, wind engineering, psychology, sociology, political
science, emergency management, insurance, elected <strong>and</strong> appointed officials,
the general public, transportation, responsibilities <strong>and</strong> capabilities of various
federal, state, <strong>and</strong> local government agencies as well as private organizations,
etc. More could surely be added to this list. Vulnerability assessment is also an
integrative process -it brings together disparate knowledge in a manner that
allows for identification of problems <strong>and</strong> insights as to their resolution. With
the inherent difficulties involved with multidisciplinary, integrative efforts, it
should not be a surprise that this sort of assessment has rarely been completed
in the past.
2.3.3 Incidence --
In terms of incidence, climate history provides a first approximation to hurricane
occurrence, intensity, <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>fall frequency (probability) for a particular
community. On a year-by-year basis, work on seasonal variability has the
potential to improve upon data gleaned from the historical record. For
decisions that cover more than one hurricane season, e.g. building a house, the
historical record remains the best source of inforDlation on hurricane incidence.
Climate statistics <strong>and</strong> experience provide decision-makers with a range
of information (e.g. annual probabilities of l<strong>and</strong>fall) that can be used to
structure action alternatives (e.g. building codes). Knowledge of hurricane
incidence is a central factor in the determination of vulnerability of people <strong>and</strong>
property to hurricanes.
2.3.4 Exposure assessment
Determining population <strong>and</strong> property at risk
With knowledge of hurricane incidence, it is possible to determine people <strong>and</strong>
property at risk to hurricanes (as described in Section 2.2.3). In defining "risk"
it is important to recognize that the "choice of definition is a political one,
expressing someone's views regarding the importance of different adverse
effects in a particular situation" (Fischhoff, Weston <strong>and</strong> Hope 1984). Population
<strong>and</strong> property at risk can be defined in a number of ways. For instance,
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