Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

THE US HURRICANE PROBLEM 63
Parallelisms
In cases where data on or experience with extreme events are lacking in a
particular region, knowledge of a similar place or time might substitute.
As Glantz (1988) has suggested: "in order to know how well society might
prepare itself for a future change in climate (the characteristics of which
we do not yet know), we must identify how well society today can cope
with climate variability <strong>and</strong> environmental impacts". This approach is also
called "forecasting by analogy". An example is Coch <strong>and</strong> Wolff (1990),
who explore the "probable effects of a storm like Hurricane Hugo on
Long Isl<strong>and</strong>, New York".
Recent experience with tropical cyclones illustrates the co-dependency of
physical <strong>and</strong> societal dimensions of tropical cyclone impacts. Over the past
several decades of relatively depressed hurricane activity, property losses have
risen exponentially with the period 1990-1995 seeing more damages (inflation
adjusted) than the 1970s <strong>and</strong> 1980s combined. The increase in property losses
has been driven by increased development in exposed coastal locations.
However, as noted in the introduction to this chapter, some decision-makers
have incorrectly interpreted the trend of increased damages to indicate more
storms. Others have interpreted a trend of fewer casualties related to
hurricanes as an indication that hurricanes no longer pose a serious threat to
life.
The main lesson of these errors of interpretation is that decision-makers need
to pay explicit attention to the interrelation of physical <strong>and</strong> societal aspects
of hurricanes. It is important to be able to look at the "big picture" of tropical
cyclone impacts in order to avoid analytical blind spots <strong>and</strong> misinterpretations
of selected trend records.
Conventional risk assessment methodologies have important intrinsic limitations
<strong>and</strong> impact models have potential for significant blind spots. Further,
West <strong>and</strong> Lenze (1994) argue that:
...such research must also include non-modeling impact methodologies.
Indeed, the uncertainties <strong>and</strong> complexities of the issue may ultimately yield the
outcome that impact techniques derived from adapting historical experience with
other natural disasters or using quasi-experimental control group methods yield
better projected impacts.
To underst<strong>and</strong> the "big picture" of impacts, decision-makers need a framework
within which they can balance <strong>and</strong> assess the relative physical <strong>and</strong>
societal aspects of tropical cyclones. With a broad context in view the
decision-maker will be less likely to succumb to analytical blind spots. In the
past, for the most part, the broad context of tropical cyclone impacts has been
defined by trend data on hurricane events, property losses, <strong>and</strong> casualties.