Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society - Climate Science ...

nIB US HURRICANE PROBLEM
Table 2.3 Example of a specific event modeling approach
1992 Losses for past storms.
Name
Cat. 4
Andrew
Betsy
Donna
Cat. 4
Cat. 3
Cat. 4
Oeo
Cat. 3
Inez
Location Date 1992 damages
(US$ billions)
Miami
S. Florida
S. Florida
Sombrero Key
Pompano Beach
Homestead
Palm Beach
Miami
Palm Beach
S. Florida
Data from: Englehardt <strong>and</strong> Peng (1996).
1926
1992
1965
1960
1947
1941
1928
1964
1949
1966
39
24
15
10
9
5
3.5
2.7
2.6
2.2
.Damages are adjusted to 1992 estimates based on inflation <strong>and</strong> increased
housing density.
Table 2.4 Example of a hypothetical event modeling approach
Hurricane loss projections for Category 4 or 5 hurricanes at key
points along the coastline
Category
Location
5 Miami, FL
Fort Lauderdale, FL
Galveston, TX
Hampton, VA
New Orleans, LA
4
Asbury Park, NJ
4
New York City, NY
4
Long Isl<strong>and</strong>, NY
4
Ocean City, MD
Total insured loss
(USS billions 1993)
52
51
42
33
25
52
45
40
20
Source: Applied Insurance Research in IIPLR/lRC (1995).
hurricane impact along the US coast would be no more than $10 billion (e.g.
Sheets 1992). Even in the immediate aftermath of Andrew, many estimates of
damages were off by significant amounts (Noonan 1993). The primary reason
for this was a number of important factors not included in the models that
only became apparent in the wake of the disaster. Of course, for the insurance
companies that sponsor such models, overall accuracy with respect to loss
totals may not be the most important factor -relative impacts on their
portfolios may be more important.
.5
.9
.5
.5
.6
.3
.0
.8.1
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