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84 australian maritime issues 2009: spc-a annual
Methodology
Extensive qualitative research contributed to the findings of this report. The majority
of sources included geo-political analyses by specialists in the areas of foreign policy,
energy security, the Persian Gulf, Iran, the Gulf Arab states, and US military activity in
the Gulf, from centres in the Middle East to the US. The author also conducted talks with
specialists in the areas of Persian Gulf politics and security. Statistical data of energy
reserves, production, consumption, and trade was considered from sources including
the US Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency, and the BP
Statistical Review of World Energy. Topical news articles were used as secondary sources.
Given the speculative nature of the topic, the conclusions drawn are based on current
strategic analyses and opinion, as well as historical examples as they relate to current
international relations. Such an analysis admittedly has limitations: it cannot utilise
classified information, and cannot make official assertions regarding the intentions
of Iran, the GCC or the US. 3 However, the author hopes that the conclusions of this
report will contribute to public debate vis-à-vis a conflict in the strait.
PART One
The Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz, arguably the world’s most critical chokepoint in the shipment
of crude oil, links the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Oman and
the Arabian Sea. 4 A narrow, arched channel, it is hugged by Iran to the north and the
Musandam Peninsula of Oman to the south. The coastline of the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) is the second-longest in the Gulf (420nm), and borders the western entrance
to the strait. 5 The Strait of Hormuz is approximately 100nm long and 21nm wide at its
narrowest point, with an average depth of 50m. 6
Commercial importance
Described as the ‘highway of seaborne oil’, energy exports continue to define the
economic significance of the strait. 7 Roughly 88 per cent of all oil leaving the Gulf
is transported through the strait aboard tankers carrying approximately 17 million
barrels of oil per day. This equates to roughly 40 per cent of the world’s internationally
traded oil, making the protection of energy exports through the strait an issue of
global concern. 8 In addition to oil, all liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf are
shipped via the strait.