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96 australian maritime issues 2009: spc-a annual
Saudi Arabia
Assessing the reaction of Saudi Arabia to an Iranian challenge is complicated by
conflicting considerations. The US withdrew from its Saudi Arabian bases in 2003,
and the government would be hesitant to welcome an overwhelming US military
presence in the region. Though they remain allies (Saudi recently refused offers of
intercontinental ballistic missiles from China so as not to strain the US relationship),
the Saudi government is wary of appearing too supportive of US operations in the
region lest this aggravate an already restive population. 87 As such, the regime might
be more supportive of UN involvement rather than a US-controlled intervention.
In addition, Saudi Arabia sees Iran as a long-term threat because of its traditional
territorial and power ambitions. Leaders view the threat of Iran’s nuclear program and
leverage in the Strait of Hormuz as challenges that must be ‘managed’, in contrast to
typical US policy to ‘solve’ the Iranian problem as fast as possible. Put simply, Saudi
does not want the US to intervene with a short-term response bringing long-term
consequences. For this reason, the government might encourage external powers to
commit to managing the Iranian threat in both war and peace time contexts.
However, Saudi Arabia and Iran have long struggled against each other for the
role of regional hegemon, and it would be expected to encourage the repression of
Iranian power objectives. Accordingly, in the scenario of a conflict in the strait, Saudi
would likely support a strategy that would overwhelm Iran as fast as possible. 88 At
the November 2007 GCC meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Vice-Minister of Defence Prince
Abdulrahman bin Abdul Aziz declared: ‘because of the threats we face, we have to work
hard to develop our armed forces to make them capable of providing regional stability
and safety for energy resources’. 89 This demonstrated the government’s willingness
to develop indigenous and regional forces to build a viable defence structure in the
Gulf, which if credible could constitute a significant challenge and even deterrent
to Iranian aggression. The US is supporting Riyadh’s plan to expand a Saudi force
that protects ports, oil facilities, and water-desalinisation plants in the kingdom from
10,000 to 35,000 men. 90
Kuwait
Kuwait is particularly concerned with ensuring the Gulf States work together to deter
Iranian aggression (justifiably so after the Iraqi invasion of 1990). In 2007, Washington
promised a US$20 billion arms package to the Gulf States, interpreted by many as an
attempt to reinforce Gulf Arab defence systems and discourage Iranian belligerency. 91
In February 2010, Kuwaiti Member of Parliament Ma’suma Al Mubarak defended the
right of the Gulf States to build up their military capabilities, notably Patriot missile
systems. She stated that ‘in light of US and Israeli threats against Iran, the Gulf States
must develop their own security systems, so as not to become caught in the vise [created