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108 australian maritime issues 2009: spc-a annual
50
Wehrey et al, Dangerous but not Omnipotent, p. 60; Stratfor Global Intelligence, ‘Iran and
the Strait of Hormuz: Part 1A Strategy of Deterrence’, Special Series: Iran and the Strait of
Hormuz, 5 October 2009, p. 2.
51
IISS, The Military Balance 2010, p. 252.
52
Henderson, Energy in Danger, p. 4.
53
Wehrey et al, Dangerous but not Omnipotent, pp. 61-2.
54
Stratfor Global Intelligence, ‘Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: Part 1’, p. 4.
55
Discussion with Michael Connell, CNA, April 2010.
56
Jamal S Al Suwaidi, (ed), Iran and the Gulf: A Search for Stability, The Emirates Center for
Strategic Studies and Research, Abu Dhabi, 1996, p. 263, and Stratfor Global Intelligence,
‘Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: Part 1’, p. 4.
57
Stratfor Global Intelligence, ‘Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: Part 1’, p. 3.
58
Gary Sick, ‘Alliance against Iran’, interview with the consulting Editor of the Council on
Foreign Relations, 23 January, 2007, (30 March 2010).
59
Simon Henderson, Facing Iran’s Challenge: Safeguarding Oil Exports from the Persian Gulf,
Washington Institute for Near East Affairs, Policy Watch No. 1112, 7 June 2006, p. 2.
60
Turki Al Hamad, ‘Imperfect Alliances: Will the Gulf Monarchies Work Together?’, in Barry
Rubin (ed), Crises in the Contemporary Persian Gulf, Frank Cass, London, 2002, p. 27.
61
Sudarsan Raghavan, ‘Yemen denounces Iran’s ‘interference’, Sunni government says Shiite
Tehran meddling in conflict with rebels’, Washington Post, 12 November 2009, (5 May 2010).
62
Jean-François Seznec, ‘Why Saudi Arabia Does Not Support a Strike on Iran’, Saudi-US
Relations Information Service, 11 March 2010,
(14 March 2010).
63
Discussion with Michael Connell, CNA, April 2010.
64
US Energy Information Administration, ‘International Energy Statistics’ (14 March 2010).
65
Central Intelligence Agency, ‘United Arab Emirates’, in CIA World Factbook, (18 May 2010); Central Intelligence
Agency, ‘Kuwait’, in CIA World Factbook,
(18 May 2010); Central Intelligence Agency, ‘Qatar’, in CIA World
Factbook, (18 May
2010).
66
A rentier state is typically one which derives a majority of its income from external rents,
or the revenue earned through ownership of natural resources. In the case of the Gulf Arab
states, rents are largely in the form of energy resources. Often, the state’s government is the
principal recipient of the external rent, and does not need to develop a significant domestic
productive sector because of the substantial revenues derived from rents.
67
Sreedhar, The Gulf Oil Scene, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Working Paper No. 48,
The Australian National University (ANU), Canberra, 1982, p. 2.
68
Akhbar Al Khaleej, ‘Iran Capacity to Disrupt Oil Shipments’, MEMRI Economic Blog, 21
December 2009, (14 April 2010).