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100 australian maritime issues 2009: spc-a annual
military response - on behalf of the world - in defence of the sea lanes.
What follows is a two week military confrontation between Iran and
the US (and allies).
With naval and air bases in the Gulf, the US is able to respond fast and
with vigour. The US intervention includes mine clearing operations
in the strait and warfare against Iran. 106 (Military experts estimate
that securing the strait would take at least one month). 107 As the
conflict progresses and Iran feels the impact of superior US tactical
and operational capabilities, it aims to heavily damage or sink a US
warship, and attack US military installations such as the Fifth Fleet HQ
in Bahrain. It is feared that Iran might also target water desalination
plants along the southern shores of the Gulf, which provide over 60 per
cent of the drinking water needed by the Arab Gulf States. 108
In this critical scenario, the GCC would collectively aim to protect mutual commercial,
territorial and political interests by uniting behind the US and its allies. 109 Historically,
the Iran-GCC relationship has been one of significant mistrust regarding motive and
intent. Iranian missile tests, the suspected nuclear weapons enrichment program, and
support for Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad have all served to heighten unease
among the GCC states. 110 As such, the GCC has generally desired to internationalise
regional security to gain the commitment of a broad range of external actors (a sort of
insurance policy for their survival). 111
The smaller GCC states would also want to avoid a heavy reliance on Saudi Arabia, as
this could give it reason to assume a more assertive role as the regional hegemon. The
more progressive states such as the UAE and Qatar would be hesitant to give Saudi
too much control within the GCC, lest it be inclined to impose its stricter religious and
social ideals upon them.
Internationalising the conflict
The Gulf States are thoroughly conscious of their inability to oppose Iran as an independent
alliance. Even collectively, the GCC simply cannot match the military power of Iran.
Although the GCC aims to act in the interest of their collective security, it is not equipped to
deploy a capable force with a coherent strategy. In the event of a strait closure, the response
would need to be quick yet well-calculated, and it is doubtful the GCC could achieve this
without external support. As such, the GCC would rely on the US (and possibly France) to
deploy forces from their stations in the Gulf (Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE). 112
In the Tanker War, the US re-flagged Kuwaiti tankers under its flag (upon request by
Kuwait), signalling that an attack on these vessels would constitute an attack on the US.
After a US warship almost fatally struck a mine, the US launched Operation PRAYING
MANTIS, destroying two Iranian oil platforms and three warships, and neutralising