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98 australian maritime issues 2009: spc-a annual
defence agreements with the US should not indicate that the GCC is ready to take
sides. In March 2010, speculation surfaced that Qatar, Oman and Kuwait had signed
bilateral security pacts with Iran, forbidding the use of their territory for launching
attacks against it (whether this included attacks by external powers is unclear). 99
This in turn is complicated by the presence of the US Air Force at Al Udaid, where US
Central Command has a forward headquarters, demonstrating the balancing act that
the Gulf States must play to appease both the West and Iran in peacetime.
Bahrain
Bahrain hosts the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet (US Naval command has maintained a presence
in Bahrain since February 1948), and as a close US ally has strained political relations
with Iran. These have not been tempered by international condemnation of Iran’s
suspected nuclear enrichment program. Indeed, Bahraini officials have stated their
suspicions that Iran is violating its non-proliferation obligations, and in 2007 Bahrain
rejected Iran’s offer to support its own nuclear energy program. Retired US Navy Vice
Admiral Charles Moore Jr quotes the late ruler Sheikh Essa bin Salman Al Khalifa:
The ships and aircraft of the Fifth Fleet are a mountain of fire that
separates us from the Iranians, and that presence of naval forces is
what has given us peace and prosperity. 100
In February 2009, Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri, adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Khomeini, purportedly claimed sovereignty over Bahraini soil, rekindling past tensions
over Iranian territorial ambitions. Tehran proceeded to deny the claim that Bahrain was
once the 14th province of Iran; however Bahrain chose to freeze LNG negotiations and
banned Iranian vessels from Bahraini waters. 101 The two countries had been in bilateral
talks to establish a gas agreement whereby Bahrain would import around one billion cf
of LNG per day from Iran’s South Pars field. Bahrain only reopened discussions once
Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki travelled to Bahrain and offered an official apology.
This instance reinforced the mistrust between Sunni-led Arab states and Shiite Iran
– Saudi Arabia is particularly concerned with the power of Iran to influence Shiite
Muslims in the GCC countries as well as Iraq, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. 102 Yet like its
GCC counterparts, Bahrain is concerned with accommodating Iranian interests to deter
aggression. It recognises that Iran will always be a major component of the geo-political
landscape in the Gulf, and therefore greater diplomatic ties and agreements (including
business and banking concessions) are important for maintaining regional stability. 103
Oman
Oman’s position on Iran diverges somewhat from that of its Gulf neighbours. It is
possible that Oman would avoid heavy involvement in a conflict vis-à-vis Iran in an
effort to preserve bilateral relations. Any military conflict would probably be short-lived,