Assisting the older driver - SWOV

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Strategies to improve the older driver’s safe mobility possession of driving licences among men and women teaches that the increase of the number of driving licences among older adults was clearly and mainly a case of the women catching up. For men aged 75 and above the number of driving licences increased by ʹonlyʹ 270% (from 97,000 in 1985 to 262,000 in 2006), whereas for women aged 75 and above it increased by 510% (from 31,000 in 1985 to 158,000 in 2006). The group of older drivers has, thus, not only grown in numbers, but also changed in composition. Mobility The kilometres travelled by older drivers also increased substantially during the past twenty years. This growth has been the largest among those aged between 60 and 74 (from 4.7 billion driver kilometres in 1985 to 11.5 billion in 2006), followed by those aged 50‐59 and those aged 75 and above. The development in the kilometres travelled by the 18‐24 year olds deviated from that of the other age groups. The distances travelled by this age group strongly decreased, from 8.5 billion in 1985 to 4.9 billion in 2006. Again, trends between men and women differed. The largest increase in kilometres travelled is found among women aged 75 and above (from 0.1 billion driver kilometres in 1985 to 0.4 billion in 2006). By way of comparison, the increase among men of the same age group was from 0.7 billion driver kilometres in 1985 to 1.2 billion in 2006. It may be expected that the future women of 75 years and above will drive an even larger number of kilometres. After all, those women that are now responsible for the strong increase in the number of driver kilometres in the younger age groups will eventually enter the age group of those aged 75 and above. It is not expected that they will give up the freedom given to them by their car. The expectations expressed in this paragraph about the future developments in the kilometres travelled are based exclusively on the trends in the available data for the past twenty years. Any changes in the mobility patterns of older people as a result of, for example, an increase in e‐commerce, have not been taken into account. Another factor that may influence the future number of fatalities among older drivers could be the transition of older drivers from a minority group with special needs and habits to one of the largest subgroups of drivers. This transition will probably affect the dynamics of the total traffic system, including the behaviour of other road users. The increasing probability of having to interact with an older driver may elicit profound changes in the behaviour of all drivers, as well as in 47
Assisting the older driver patterns of interaction among the participants in the traffic system. As a result, the increasing participation of older drivers in traffic may lower the crash rates for older drivers (OECD, 2001). 3.2.2. Expectations about future crash and injury rates A rough but nevertheless informative way of estimating future crash and injury rates is one in which the current share of older drivers is multiplied by the expected increase in its share in the population. Using this technique, Sivak et al. (1995) estimated that the share of older drivers (65 years and above) in the total number of U.S. drivers involved in fatal crashes in 2030 will be 19%, compared to 11% in 1990. For the Netherlands, the same calculation results in a share 14% of all drivers involved in severe crashes in 2030, compared to 9% in 1998 (see Table 3.2). If the same calculations are made for the number of fatalities among drivers, it turns out that in 2030 25% of all fatalities among drivers will be aged 65 or above, compared to 16% in 1998. These calculations assume that the shares of driving licence holders, kilometres travelled, crash rates, and fatality rates would remain the same between 1998 and 2030. However, the previous paragraphs taught that these assumptions are incorrect; the number of kilometres travelled by those aged 65 and above will increase faster than they will for younger people. As a result, the prognoses in Table 3.2 may be used as a minimum for the expected shares of older drivers in the total number of drivers involved in severe crashes and in the total numbers of severely or fatally injured drivers. 1996‐1998 2010 2020 2030 Age Fatal Severely injured Involved in severe crash Fatal Severely injured Involved in severe crash Fatal Severely injured Involved in severe crash Fatal Severely injured Involved in severe crash 20‐24 18.7 18.7 15.7 18.1 18.1 15.2 18.1 18.1 15.2 16.7 16.7 14.0 25‐29 17.9 17.6 16.5 13.3 13.1 12.3 14.0 13.8 12.9 13.6 13.4 12.6 30‐39 20.0 23.6 24.5 16.2 19.1 19.8 14.7 17.3 18.0 15.3 18.1 18.8 40‐49 13.5 14.3 15.9 14.2 14.9 16.7 11.6 12.2 13.6 10.7 11.3 12.6 50‐59 9.8 10.4 11.2 11.1 11.7 12.7 11.6 12.3 13.3 9.7 10.3 11.1 60‐64 3.9 3.7 3.5 5.5 5.3 5.0 5.4 5.2 4.9 5.7 5.5 5.2 65‐74 8.6 6.6 5.6 9.2 7.1 6.0 12.0 9.2 7.9 12.8 9.8 8.4 75+ 7.7 5.2 3.4 8.6 5.8 3.8 9.6 6.5 4.3 12.7 8.6 5.6 65+ 16.3 11.8 9.0 17.8 12.9 9.9 21.6 15.7 12.1 25.5 18.4 14.0 Table 3.2. Prognosis of the shares of the various age groups in a) the total number of driver fatalities, b) the number of severely injured, and c) the total number of drivers involved in severe crashes, in 2010, 2020, and 2030. 48
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Page 3 and 4: SWOV‐Dissertatiereeks, Leidschend
Page 5 and 6: Promotor: Copromotor: Beoordelingsc
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Intersection design and the older d
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Advanced driver assistance systems
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Assisting the older driver Appendix
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Samenvatting Samenvatting Dit proef
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Samenvatting Verkeersveiligheidsmaa
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Samenvatting jongere automobilisten
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Samenvatting voordeel dat ze de rij
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Dankwoord Dankwoord Het schrijven v
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Curriculum Vitae Curriculum Vitae R
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Assisting the older driver Nottingh
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Assisting the older driver - SWOV

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