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The success of the WMO programmes illustratesthe economic and social benefits that arederived from an accurate global weather forecastingsystem. Studies show that the benefitsof weather forecasting do not stop at earlywarning of natural disasters. However, meteorologicaland hydrological services are stillundervalued in most countries even thoughthey constitute a building element of anynational disaster reduction strategy given theirimportance in early warning systems. Moreover,observations of weather phenomena gobeyond the immediate and seasonal forecastsdetermining daily human activity. Long-rangestudies of the stratosphere are crucial in understandingthe phenomenon of global change,including El Niño, climate change or thedepletion of the ozone layer. WMO scientificanalyses and warnings are instrumental inaddressing these issues and supporting multilateralenvironmental agreements.Selected application of disaster reduction measuresAn International Research Centre for the El NiñoPhenomenon (IRCEN, CIIFEN in Spanish) isbeing established in Guayaquil, Ecuador,under the auspices of the Government ofEcuador, ISDR and WMO. The Centre willbe a means to conduct a regional project thatwill address, inter alia, early warning systemsfor disaster loss reduction. It is conceived as acentre with global connections to other centres,but with a special focus on the Eastern EquatorialPacific and the western countries ofSouth America. Socio-economic benefits willbe derived from seasonal forecasts and ElNiño/La Niña warnings and advisories,which will be converted into informationproducts designed for disaster loss reductionpurposes and key socio-economic sectors,public health, agriculture, fisheries, watermanagement, energy production and use.The centre should be starting its operationsin September 2002.5Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF)UNEP through its Environment Assessment Programme for Asia and the Pacific (EAPAP), at the Asian Institute ofTechnology, Bangkok, is contributing to the establishment of an operational early warning system to monitor hazardsin the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Through a project implemented in collaboration with the InternationalCentre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal recently produced inventories of glaciers and glaciallakes in Bhutan and Nepal, specifying the potential risk lakes. Outputs of the project also included recommendationsfor the establishment of a system for monitoring potential risk lakes using remote sensing, GIS and strengtheningof national capabilities to implement an early warning system for GLOF hazards. Training of local expertswas also provided.Implementation of an early warning system in NepalFollowing panic created by the media in the summer of 1997 in the Rolwaling and Tama Koshi Valleys, HisMajesty’s Government of Nepal implemented an early warning system at the end of June 1997 to provide timelywarning to the people. An army and two police posts were established at appropriate locations and provided withhigh frequency (HF) radio transceivers, one post having a back-up set. Regular radio contacts were maintainedwith headquarters in Kathmandu. In addition, the posts were provided with satellite telephones. The disaster preventioncell at the Home Ministry was informed twice a day. In the event of a GLOF, Radio Nepal, the nationalbroadcaster, would broadcast a warning. Radio Nepal can be received in most places along the valleys that are atrisk.The GLOF early warning systemThe first flood warning system in Nepal was installed in May 1998 to warn the people living downstream fromTsho Rolpa Glacial Lake, in the potential GLOF affected areas along the Rolwaling and Tama Kosi Valleys aswell as at the Khimti Hydroelectric Project. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology implemented theproject financed by the World Bank. The operation of the warning system has been satisfactory. The GLOFwarning system can be essentially divided into two general components: the GLOF sensing system, which detectsthe occurrence of a GLOF and initiates the warning process, and the downstream warning system, which conveys275
5Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiativesGFMC provides a web portal with the global,regional and national systems that areavailable for real-time or nearly real-timeearly warning of wildland fire. Most systemsare based on weather forecasts at short toextended time ranges and global to regionalspace scales. The global system is generatedby the Experimental Climate Prediction Centre(ECPC). Regional systems are provided bythe Association of South-East Asian Nations(ASEAN) Fire Weather Information System(generated by Forestry Canada), the EurasianExperimental Fire Weather Information System(Forestry Canada and GFMC) and theEuropean Natural Hazards Project Forest FireRisk (European Union). Other systems aresatellite-based indices, e.g. the NormalizedDifference Vegetation Index (NDVI) andthermal data from the NOAA Advanced VeryHigh Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)sensors. Area, intensity and duration of vegetationstress, fire potential and danger can beestimated from maps that are updated regu-Early Warning and Response Network (EWARN),Southern SudanEWARN was launched in 1999 by WHO in collaborationwith several international agencies, NGOs and local communitiesto strengthen outbreak detection and response.Objectives of EWARN:• Early detection, alert and prompt investigation of suspectedoutbreaks;• Establishment and strengthening of outbreak preparednessand rapid response;• Provision of regular feedback and technical guidance to allinvolved;• Building local capacity for early detection, prompt investigationand rapid response.Currently, EWARN partners handle alerts that would previouslyhave called for mobilization of international teams.In 2000 a relapsing fever outbreak was contained within twoweeks of reported onset, with 154 cases and eight deaths. Partnershiphas improved alerting, reporting and response in theevent of suspected outbreaks and saved time, money and lives.The development of an early warning and response network inSouthern Sudan which has built on the experiences andresources of existing NGOs, has provided a model of successin using scarce resources to build capacity and make a differencewithin a multidisease or integrated disease surveillanceand response framework.larly. Together with real-time satellite data onactive fires the GFMC information systemprovides a range of information tools forearly warning of critical fire situations.The Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWS)of the International Oceanographic Commission(IOC) of UNESCO provides timely andeffective tsunami warning, watch and informationbulletins to the populations of thePacific. It is operated through the Pacific TsunamiWarning Centre (PTWC) with the support ofnational and regional tsunami warning centres.IOC also maintains an International TsunamiInformation Centre (ITIC), which acts as asource of information for national andregional tsunami warning authorities.Alongside these programmes, the Three GlobalObserving Systems (G3OS), namely theGlobal Climate Observing System (GCOS), theGlobal Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS)and the Global Ocean Observing System(GOOS), in which United Nations agencies,the International Council of Scientific Unions(ICSU) and satellite agencies work together,make important contributions to the warningprocess. G3OS activities are harmonizedthrough the Integrated Global Observing Strategy(IGOS), to which the United Nations system-wideEarthwatch is also providing supportespecially as far as environmental observationand assessment are concerned. Environmentaldata need to be integrated intoearly warning strategies and Earthwatch providesa useful platform for information andknowledge exchange.With continuing globalization in travel andtrade, global epidemic surveillance is essentialto ensure international public health security.International efforts to contain healthrelatedthreats are coordinated by WHO.WHO has established a number of internationalnetworks for specific disease threatsand has developed several electronic databasesincluding: FluNet, a geographical informationsystem to monitor influenza activityand the Global Public Health Intelligence Network(GPHIN), a web-based system developedin collaboration with Health Canadawhich scans the web for outbreak-relatedinformation. The early warning and responsenetwork of Southern Sudan (see box) also276
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DLiving with RiskA global review of
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Bastien Affeltranger, FranceTom Alc
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IntroductionThis is a preliminary v
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“Imagine all the people…”It w
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Eruption of Mount Agung, Bali, Indo
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Living with risk - focus on disaste
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The shift towards disaster reductio
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Taking these developments into acco
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Disaster risk reduction - a sharedr
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A disaster is a function of the ris
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Disaster risk management and reduct
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Chapter2Risk awareness and assessme
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Understanding the nature of hazards
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Risk awareness and assessment2Map-
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The figure below illustrates the fo
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Trends in disaster impactWhile no c
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Trends in hazardsUntil recently, th
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Risk awareness and assessment2Nyira
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Risk awareness and assessment2ISDR
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Risk awareness and assessment2Reduc
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Risk awareness and assessment2Wildl
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Risk awareness and assessment2Prima
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Risk awareness and assessment215 la
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dering external debts that constitu
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The identification of hazards usual
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consideration about the nature of i
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Risk awareness and assessment2Bern
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Risk awareness and assessment2THE P
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Risk awareness and assessment2The R
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Risk awareness and assessment2Ecoci
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Chapter3Policy and public commitmen
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Policy and public commitment: the f
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Policy frameworks in practiceAsiaDi
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process that emphasizes the partici
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announced the creation of the Offic
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established with necessary legislat
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Key policy proposals contained in t
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Under the mandate of the CTGC, a se
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Following recommendations, the city
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underway to upgrade the Swiss Natio
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damage to introducing means that ca
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The last earthquake to devastate Ka
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• Formulating distinctive risk re
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AfricaSouthern AfricaPolicy and pub
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y the conduct of monthly meetings d
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develop closer working relationship
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mechanisms among SAARC countries fo
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ients as unencumbered assistance. A
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able outcomes within individual Pac
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EuropeWestern EuropeResearch is one
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http://europa.eu.int/comm/environme
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ter. By working together with commu
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ing socio-economic considerations w
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Case: Central American countries,co
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experience of National Societies of
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Chapter4Building understanding: dev
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Building understanding: development
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International scope of informationT
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environmental changes, including el
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Regional initiativesRegional inform
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North AmericaThe Natural Hazards Re
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EuropeA different type of informati
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created a more readily understood c
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Technical information service conve
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ole in defining these future requir
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A second initiative to disseminate
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support, contribute to the establis
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issues, climatic uncertainty, chang
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anism that has been exploited to on
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preparedness are frequently attribu
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Institutional basis to transmit exp
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lic information must necessarily in
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information including links to many
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ized a workshop with the support of
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nication remains the local language
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In 2001, government officials, ADRC
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challengesFuture challenges and pri
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Chapter5A selection of disasterredu
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5Living with Risk: A global review
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Photo: ISDR Secretariat
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Annexesa1Annex 1Terminology: Basic
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Emergency management involves the p
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Recovery (rehabilitation and recons
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Annexesa2Annex 2Directory: Internat
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Annexesa2Business and Industry Coun
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Annexesa2Comisión Nacional de Prev
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Annexesa2Disaster Management Center
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Annexesa2Experimental Climate Predi
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Annexesa2Instituto Nicaraguense de
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Annexesa2International Drought Info
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Annexesa2Musokotwane Environment Re
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Annexesa2Organization of Eastern Ca
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Annexesa2South Asian Association fo
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Annexesa2Unit for Sustainable Devel
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Annexesa3Annex 3aList of ACRONYMSAC
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Annexesa3CREDCRIDCSDCSDSCSIRCSTCSWC
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GEOGESIGFMCGHIGIEWSGISGLIDESGLO-DIS
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Annexesa3mMABMADERMANDISAMARNMATEMC
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Annexesa3SARCOFSARDCSARECSBOSCF-UKS
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Annexesa4Annex 4aBibliographyAbramo
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Annexesa4eDisaster Relief. Worldwid
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Annexesa4kKent,m lRandolph. 1987. A
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Annexesa4Thompson, C. 1993. Drought
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The International Strategy for Disa
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