A global review of disaster reduction initiatives - Welcome to the ...

5Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiatives280Institutional services that canreact to warningsWarning in itself has no value, what is fundamentalis how people react to it. The ultimateindicator of a warning system’s effectiveness isthe warning recipient’s response to the warning.The mere existence of an efficient earlywarning system should not lead to a false senseof security.In Kenya, the Early Warning System (EWS) model pioneeredby the Turkana Drought Contingency Planning Unit(TDCPU), which has now been scaled up to cover 10districts in the north of the country, provides an interestingexample of how early warning data can be translatedand communicated clearly to decision makers. Althoughmonitoring at least 18 indicators, covering environment,the rural economy and human welfare, EWS delivers asimple message to decision makers. By using a predefinedsequence of warning stages, from “normal” to“alert” to “alarm” to “emergency”, it presents an easilyunderstood summary analysis, directly linked to responseinterventions.Early warning is widely acknowledged asbeing much more than a technological issuerelated to hazard monitoring, forecasting andtelecommunications and a scientific issue relatedto climatology, volcanology and seismology.It is expected to provide clear, consistent, criticaland user-friendly information to emergencymanagement officials and the public in duetime to ensure that appropriate action can betaken to minimize loss of life and property.Therefore, the last segment of the early warningchain, namely the reaction to warning messages,deserves more attention in the designand operation of early warning systems.Known, structured, practised and sustainedcontingency action plans are required to elicitproper response after clear and consistent messagesare issued, especially when the time to actbecomes shorter. In this regard the importanceof regular simulation exercises is critical toimprove both the efficiency of the responseactions and receive the necessary feedback toadjust the overall design of the early warningsystem. After the disastrous Oder flood eventin 1997 it was recognized that there was anecessity for combined exercises for emergencysituations and improved coordination of countermeasuresbetween respective governmentauthorities on the German and Polish sides ofthe river. It also pointed to the need for someearly warning systems to be transboundary innature.There is one example of disaster managementcontingency planning based upon a wellunderstoodearly warning system and accomplishedmeasures of disaster preparedness thatcould provide wider beneficial experience. Asystematic and annually reviewed process ofcontingency planning for disaster preparednessand response has been in force in Mauritiussince the 1960s. It is derived from the primaryforecasting and early warning authority of theNational Meteorological Service, and is coordinatedacross all operational sectors of government,under the overall authority of thePrime Minister’s Office. This programme hasgiven particular attention to maintaining therelevance of its operational plans throughoutchanging conditions of growth and developmentin the country, even though tropicalcyclones directly impact the society only everyeight to ten years. The public and officialacceptance of early warning and disaster preparednessas integral elements of governmentresponsibility and the resulting informed publicbehaviour displayed across generationsmust both be considered as factors of the strategy’ssuccess. The National MeteorologicalService has been central to the early warningprocess and has been a motivation for the preparednessstrategy since its inception. It hasfurther demonstrated the leadership that mete-Warrick et al. (1981) cited the case of the ashfall warning that was issued by the WashingtonState Department of Emergency Services inadvance of the eruption of Mount St. Helens.Although issued by an authoritative source,this message was not passed on to the communityat risk by intermediate agents because itlacked a sense of urgency, was not specificabout the areas likely to be affected by ash falland contained no guidance about precautionaryactions which people were expected to take.It is now believed that effective warning messagesshould contain a moderate sense ofurgency, estimate the time before impact andthe scale of the event and provide specificinstructions for action, including the need tostay clear of the hazard zoneSource: Gruntfest 1987