A global review of disaster reduction initiatives - Welcome to the ...

Criteria to measure the effectiveness of earlywarning systems need to be elaborated toincrease their credibility and improve their efficiency.In this regard, special attention shouldbe given to the accuracy, timeliness and coverageof warnings, including number of recipientsand validation process, calculation ofavoided deaths and economic losses, failure toidentify risk and take response measures, ratingof recipients’ satisfaction, including awarenessof the system in place, warning time, conflictinginformation and inappropriateness orinconsistency of it.Interpretation of scientific predictions basedon vulnerability and risk assessments and theirtranslation into effective actionsUnrestricted and affordable access to all relevantinformation on early warning for all usersis necessary but not sufficient. Improvement ofthe interface between issuers and intermediariesfor a better interpretation of scientific predictionsand their translation into positiveadministrative actions is a key factor of theearly warning chain. This issue involves severalfacets. First of all, if as noted, advances inforecasting and monitoring are remarkable, theaccompanying vulnerability and risk informationis often missing. Major efforts should beundertaken in the coming years to assess vulnerabilities,generate risk scenarios and vulnerabilitymaps, based on standardized methodologies.Then more attention should be devotedto developing user-friendly products fordecision makers and communities at risk. Thiswill require a better understanding of userneeds and preferences on how the informationshould be presented and how to apply it in thedecision-making process. This last point willneed treatment of the uncertainty factor in predictionsand its consequence for decision-makingprocesses.Public participationThe user-oriented requirements spelled outabove will be met through structured andfocused participation of the public in theSelected application of disaster reduction measuresdesign and dissemination of warning messages.People need to know the types of risks they arefacing, then be aware of the alert systems inplace in case the risk becomes a reality, then tounderstand the warning messages they willreceive in case of crisis and finally the reactionexpected from them. Public participation is thekey to trustworthy and credible early warningsystems. Therefore integrated information systemsensuring community participation innational early warning strategies need to bedeveloped. These systems will have built-incapacities to record, test and incorporate traditionaland local knowledge and coping strategiesin early warning systems, including fromone generation to the other. This feature isimportant for infrequent events. Public participationis also essential to regularly test systemsin place and carry out after-event feedbackanalysis to improve them.Coordination of national, regional and internationalearly warning activitiesThe need to strengthen the internationalframework for improving early warning systemsthrough an effective international mechanism,including for the transfer of technologyto developing countries is not a new one either.The recommendation from the Bonn meetingto establish a global early warning programmeand develop an international early warningplatform/forum responds to this need. Coordinationand cooperation, exchange of information,experience and technologies, interfacebetween national, regional and internationalactivities are necessary driving elements toavoid duplication and move the early warningprocess forward. The early warning processwill benefit from resources andinformation/knowledge exchange throughenhanced contacts with institutions in chargeof multilateral environmental agreements,especially UNCCD and the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC). Such contacts will also improveinteraction between the early warning processand the international agenda for sustainabledevelopment.5283