A global review of disaster reduction initiatives - Welcome to the ...

Trends in disaster impactWhile no country in the world is entirely safe,lack of capacity to limit the impact of hazardsremains a major burden for developing countries,where more than 90 per cent of naturaldisaster related deaths are to be found.Twenty-four of the 49 least developed countries(LDCs) still face high levels of disasterrisk. At least six of them have been hit bybetween two and eight major disasters per yearin the last 15 years, with long-term consequencesfor human development (UNDP,2001). These figures do not include the consequencesof the many smaller and unrecordeddisasters that cause significant loss at the localcommunity level.The re-insurance giant Munich Re, a memberof the ISDR Inter-agency Task Force, in itsannual publication Topics for 2000, looked atthe trend of economic losses and insurancecosts over a 50 year period linked to what itcalls “great natural catastrophes”.There were 20 of these, costing the world US$38 billion (at 1998 values) between 1950 and1959. However, between 1990 and 1999, therewere 82 such major disasters and the economiclosses had risen to a total of US$ 535 billion.That is, disasters had multiplied fourfold buteconomic losses were 14 times higher. And ineach decade between, both the number of greatdisasters and the economic loss involved hadrisen steadily. However, losses in 2000 and2001 were down.These are absolute figures of economic loss,most of them to be found in developed andindustrialized countries. But seen as losses bypercentage of GDP, it is developing countriesthat lose most in relative terms, as shown in thegraphic based on figures provided byMunichRe. For example, the economic lossesof the United States from the 1997-98 El Niñoevent were estimated to US$ 1.96 billion or0.03 per cent of GDP. The economic losses inEcuador were US$ 2.9 billion, but this represented14.6 per cent of GDP (ECLAC 2000).The International Federation of Red Cross andRed Crescent Societies, another ISDR TaskForce member, confirms the worsening trendof human suffering and economic loss duringRisk awareness and assessmentthe last decade. The total number of peopleeach year affected by natural disaster – that is,who at least for a time either lost their homes,their crops, their animals, their livelihoods, ortheir health, because of the disaster – almostdoubled between 1990 and 1999, by an averageof 188 million people per year (CRED2002). This is six times more than the averageof 31 million people affected annually by conflict(OCHA, 2002).Comparing the last three decades, the trendshows an increase in the number of naturalhazard events and of affected populations.Even though the number of disasters has morethan tripled since the 1970s, the reported deathtoll has decreased to less than half (see grahpicpage 12). This is among other factors due toimproved early warning systems and increasedpreparedness. This statistic varies enormouslydepending on region and figures used. Oneneeds to bear in mind that large disasters arerare events that defeat any statistical analysis inThe ecological footprintDemographic pressure means more forest loss and moreland degradation. This means more flooding, drought, orboth. Every human requires an area of land and shallow seafor food, water, shelter, transport, energy, commerce andwaste. This is called an ecological footprint. In rich nationssuch as the US, this ecological footprint is almost 10 hectaresper person. But even in the poorest places in the US thisfootprint is at least one hectare.Every day, another 200,000 newborns will require up to200,000 hectares of what might have been a benign and necessarywilderness. More people also means more fossil fuelconsumption, which means more carbon dioxide emission,which means climate change. And such a world, climate scientistshave warned repeatedly, is a world with a greater frequencyof extreme events.The combination of climate change and population growthwill exact a price. The latest UN calculation is that threedecades from now, around 70 per cent of the world’s landwill be affected in some way by human activity and half thepeople in the world will be short of water. Many of the otherhalf will be at risk from increased flooding. By that time,there could be eight billion people on the planet.Adapted from the environmentalist E O Wilson, ScientificAmerican, February 2002492