A global review of disaster reduction initiatives - Welcome to the ...

2Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiativesEl Niño outlooksClimatic factors that affect the occurrenceof natural disasters are the irregularlyrecurrent variables, such as the El Niñoand La Niña phenomena. Atmosphereoceancirculation models project that as theearth's climate warms over the next 100years, it is likely that a more El Niño-likecondition may persist, leading to anincrease in the incidence of floods anddroughts in many parts of the world. Boththe 1981-82 and 1997-98 events, thestrongest ever recorded, had disastrousimpacts on Pacific rim countries, and theeffects were felt worldwide.According to insurers SwissRe, the total economic impact of the 1997-98 event, amounted to US$ 98 billion.This highlights the need for better monitoring of the phenomena, better forecasts of the relatedextreme events, and more importantly, stronger institutions to deal with such information and increaselocal community's preparedness and resilience.The WMO, in collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) ofColumbia University in the U.S.A., has undertaken to coordinate the preparation of “El Niño outlooks”,whenever the threat of an event manifests itself, as a contribution to the UN Interagency Task Force onDisaster Reduction. These outlooks draw on contributions from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, IRI,Japan Meteorological Agency, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand,Met Office United Kingdom, and the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project of theWorld Climate Research Programme.Unfortunately, these factors have a compoundeffect on the occurrence and impact of disasters.On the one hand, they affect the intensityand frequency of extreme hydrometeorologicalevents, and on the other hand, they increase thevulnerability of societies. As we know, changein precipitation patterns, soil moisture and vegetationcover, are linked to the occurrence offloods, droughts, but also landslides and debrisflow events. Climate change is also resulting inslight sea level rise and may cause more devastatingstorms and hurricanes in coastal areas.The only natural hazards that are not directlyinfluenced by climate change are, possibly, volcaniceruptions and earthquakes.The Inter-Agency Task Force on DisasterReduction (IATF/DR) of the ISDR has aworking group dealing with climate and disasters(WG1) and another with wildland fires(WG4). In the area of drought preparednessand mitigation, there are a number of coordinatedand collaborative initiatives that are foreseento be undertaken within the framework ofthe ISDR Task Force involving all its workinggroups.54