A global review of disaster reduction initiatives - Welcome to the ...

5Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiativeschallenges282Future challenges and prioritiesWhat should the early warning process accomplishin the coming years? From the issues discussedin this chapter, the following areas foraction stand out:• Human-based and communicationrequirements;• Conceptualization of early warning;• Interpretation of scientific predictionsbased on vulnerability and risk assessmentsand their translation into effectiveactions;• Public participation;• Coordination of national, regional andinternational early warning activities.The establishment of a global early warningprogramme and the development of an internationalearly warning platform/forum, as suggestedat the Bonn meeting on early warningand sustainable development (March 2002),should provide a useful framework to respondto these challenges. If as envisaged the globalprogramme on early warning and the internationalearly warning platform/forum trigger theestablishment of national and subregional earlywarning platforms/forums to strengthen networkingand capacities among the actorsinvolved in the early warning chain, many ofthe above needs could be solved.Human-based and communicationrequirementsThis chapter made clear that more than aprocess of technological paraphernalia, theearly warning process should become a clevercommunication system. The most pressingneed is to address the human-based and communicationsystems-related weaknesses. Thisconclusion is not a new one; a major outputfrom the IDNDR early warning systemsWorking Group was that the difficulties aredecidedly NOT technological ones, but ratherconceptual, systemic, and human or institutionally-basedcommunication ones. The samefact is reflected in the recommendations of theBonn meeting, which calls for better interlinkagesto ensure dialogue among all stakeholdersat the international, regional, national and locallevels, to, among other things, integrate activities,interests and expertise of the variousgroups involved in the early warning process,organize information and technologyexchange, train users to find and utilize appropriateearly warning products, strengthen institutionsat all levels and build capacities. Institutionalizedand regularly tested communicationchannels clearly spelling out the functionsand roles of the various actors along the warningchain will avoid contradictions and duplicationand ensure the ultimate success of gettingthe warning message down to populationsat risk wherever they live. Greater coordinationbetween services involved in the provision ofdata and information will provide a comprehensivepicture of conditions and outlooks necessaryto inform decision-making and responseactions.Conceptualization of early warningThe initiative to hold a meeting on early warningand sustainable development was timely inaddressing one other challenge, which relatesto the fact that conceptualization and implementationof early warning still take placealong the “old rapid onset hazard/event ororganizational specific” lines. This is counterproductiveto an overall, and more systematic,comprehensive approach to the global needs ofthe twenty-first century. Early warning being apillar of disaster reduction strategies has to findits way in sustainable development policies.This means that early warning must now necessarilyencompass both environmental and climaticprocesses–over a longer period of time aswell as during periods of quiescence (e.g.between El Niño episodes, in between fireweather, smoke and haze seasons, during hurricaneand typhoon off-seasons, etc.) ratherthan being singular event-based concepts orscenarios. There is then a much greater needfor institutionalized standard nomenclature,procedures and extended organizational relationships,which should benefit from advancesin communications facilities and informationtechnologies. Convergence and coherence inearly warning activities in the context of sustainabledevelopment should be promoted.This will involve the ability of early warningsystems to deliver information about vulnerabilitypatterns in addition to hazards forecasting.Systems such as GIEWS and FEWS thatprovide vulnerability information related tofood security are needed in the areas describedin chapter 2.