A global review of disaster reduction initiatives - Welcome to the ...

2Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiativesVolcanic HazardsAbout 50 to 60 volcanoes erupt every yearworldwide. Large eruptions endanger lives,human settlements and livelihoods of thealmost 500 million people estimated to livenear active volcanoes in 2000. That numberwill increase in the future as today more than60 large cities are located near potentially activevolcanoes, threatened by volcanic eruption.Volcanoes with high activity are located predominantlyin developing countries, particularlyin Latin America, the Caribbean, partsof Asia and in the southwest Pacific. In thesecountries, despite the improvements in manynational civil defense agencies’ capacities tomanage volcanic emergencies, eruptions arebecoming increasingly risky because of risingpopulation density and intense interweavingof infrastructure in the areas surrounding volcanoes.As the physical characteristics and chemicalproperties of a specific volcano become betterknown, it can be more easily monitored.However, the prediction of an impendingeruption can still remain a major challenge forvolcanologists. Therefore, predicting futurevolcanic eruptions and related hazards mustalso be matched with a series of other forms ofmitigation, including the following:• Volcanic risk analysis.• Early warning and short-term forecast oferuptions.• Timely and effectively organized evacuationof people from hazardous areas.• Development and application of land-useand contingency plans to minimize futurevolcanic disasters.• Sustained information and educationalprograms for the population.Major volcanic eruptions do not occur spontaneouslyand are preceded by a variety ofphysical, geological and chemical changes,which accompany the rise of magma towardthe surface. The monitoring and measure-ment of these changes with well establishedscientific techniques provide the best opportunityto develop a warning system. Recentvolcanic disasters show that the cost of monitoringvolcanic activity and pre-disaster planningis very small when compared to thepotential losses.For early warning to be effective, sustainedpublic education and information is necessary.This includes understanding results of volcanologicalstudies and analysis, the possibledangers and the local plans to address themprior to the occurrence of emergency conditions.It can be done through the use ofbrochures, lectures, or courses although thebest prepared communities also conduct regulardisaster warning and prevention exercises.In 1990, the International Association of Volcanologyand Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior(IAVCEI) launched a program to support theIDNDR and to promote the reduction ofrisks related to volcanoes. The initiativeselected 16 volcanoes for monitoring andresearch with the aim of directing attention toa small number of active volcanoes, and toencourage the establishment of a range ofresearch and public-awareness activitiesaimed at enhancing an understanding of thevolcanoes and the hazards they pose.That commitment demonstrated a concentratedeffort within the scientific communityto publicize the realistic aspects of disasterreduction by working in close association withcommunities at risk from volcanic hazards.Such collaborative scientific activities continueto show benefits as quite a lot of work continueswith those same volcanoes. As a resultof improvements in monitoring made duringthe IDNDR, better data has been developed,especially as those volcanoes continue to berestless. Ongoing work that would not haveoccurred were it not for this earlier concentratedattention includes, ongoing German-Indonesian cooperation at Merapi Volcano,on the Indonesian island of Java.52