A global review of disaster reduction initiatives - Welcome to the ...

2Living with Risk: A global review of disaster reduction initiativeschallenges78Future challenges and prioritiesThe notions of hazard, vulnerability and capacity formthe basis for an effective strategy of risk reduction andthe operational basis for a culture of prevention.The following challenges and priorities are criticalareas of concern for the whole disaster reductionenterprise. These are:• Risk assessments for decision making.• Terminology, data and methodology.• Higher visibility and priority to reduce vulnerabilityand strengthen capacities.• Addressing new trends in hazard and vulnerability.Risk assessments for decision makingAn overall challenge is to review and document howrisk assessments have contributed to modify risk andhow they are being utilised in the decision makingprocess.Terminology, data and methodologiesData is the primary input for identifying trends inhazards, vulnerability, as well as feeding the riskassessments and disaster impact analysis. For manycountries, data relevant for risk analysis are unavailable,or their quality and accuracy do not reflect acomprehensive picture of the situation at hand. Thereis a need to work towards the standardisation and systemisationof all issues related to the accuracy/technicalsoundness, political neutrality, methodologies andprocesses related to the collection, analysis, storage,maintenance and dissemination of data.In terms of methodologies, there are many differentconceptual models attempting to examine the samethings. Still, one of the major issues, is how hazards,vulnerability and risk assessments can actually beused, in practice, to reduce risk. Mechanisms of integrationare needed so that issues and proposed remedialinitiatives are not fragmentary when presented todecision-makers.Higher visibility and higher priority to reducevulnerabilities and strengthen capacitiesReducing vulnerability to risk still falls mainly underthe responsibility of the public authorities. Dataregarding disaster impact, especially concerning smalland medium scale disasters and of the social and environmentalconsiderations, is still lacking. Politicalauthorities usually see economic considerations ashighly influential in their decision making. Withoutthe quantitative measurement on a realistic and allencompassing picture of risk, it is difficult for politicaldecision-makers to acknowledge and factor in theseconsiderations into their legislative mechanisms andinto development planning efforts. Following this, fiscalcommitments need be specified in national budgets.The acknowledgement of capacity, as a key factor in thedisaster risk formula, needs to be followed by the furtherenhancement of a conceptual framework to assessthis factor. The incorporation of vulnerability andcapacity into tools such as risk indexes, along with cleartargets or benchmarks and indicators, will engage thework towards highlighting disaster risk efforts. TheGlobal Risk Vulnerability Index under development byUNDP, as well as the framework to monitor progresson risk reduction, being developed by ISDR, are goodexamples of current efforts towards that objective.Addressing new trends in hazards andvulnerabilityAt this point, recognition and in depth analysis of thechanging nature of hazards and vulnerabilities is needed.The influence of ecological imbalances such as climatechange is affecting the frequency and intensity ofhazardous natural phenomenon. Additionally, environmentaldegradation is exacerbating the impact of naturalhazards. Risk assessments need to reflect thedynamic and complex scenarios to properly feed intodisaster risk reduction strategies. Multi-hazards andcomprehensive vulnerability/capacity assessments thattake into account the changing patterns in disaster riskare departing points for raising risk awareness at allscales. Conventional ways to identify, monitor, evaluate,cope and recover from risks are currently challengedwith emergent new trends in hazards and vulnerability.The emergent trends in hazards and vulnerabilitydescribed in this chapter accounts for a major and newsource of uncertainties to the overall assessmentprocess of disaster risk. These changes affect not onlythe formal procedures of risk assessment in place, butthe prevailing patterns of risk perception too. Particularknowledge or experience capitalised by communitiesand people, by means of long exposure to classicalsources of hazards, have now been challenged by complexand new forms of danger. The repercussions ofenvironmental degradation on current vulnerabilityand hazard patterns and the increasing exposure totechnological hazards, as well as new forms ofunprecedented hazards, raise a different range of concerns.An integrated and effective process of riskassessment needs to engage these challenges to trulyprovide the foundation for disaster risk reduction in the21st century.