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According to the estimation of the Board of Audit in March 2015, it will take up to 30 years for TEPCO to repay the financial subsidies of 9 trillion yen (US$90 billion) it received from the government. 316 Based on the information from TEPCO, the total cost of damages caused by the Fukushima disaster has been estimated to be at 13.3 trillion yen (US$ 133 billion), based on the following items: (1) Decommissioning and contaminated water treatment costs of 2 trillion yen. Although TEPCO already set aside a reserve of 1 trillion yen (US$ 10 billion), the government asked the utility to secure another 1 trillion yen (US$ 10 billion) within 10 years. (2) Compensation costs of about 7.1 trillion yen (US$ 71 billion). The total of the legally required compensation costs according to the latest data is about 7.7 trillion yen (US$ 77 billion), see Table 9. (3) Decontamination costs of 3.6 trillion yen (US$ 36 billion): The Ministry of the Environment has estimated the decontamination cost at about 2.5 trillion yen (US$ 25 billion) and the interim storage facilities cost at about 1.1 trillion yen (US$ 11 billion). Fukushima vs. Chernobyl “We knew, with certainty, with arrogant certainty, that we were in control of the power we were playing with. We could make the forces of nature bend to our will. There was nothing we could not do. This was the day, of course, when we learned we were wrong.” Sergiy Parashyn Engineer at the Chernobyl plant from 1977 to the day of the disaster 317 Although the Fukushima disaster in 2011 remains very serious, according to some criteria, its effects seem to pale in comparison to the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1986. However, it must be noted that all of these numbers are based on modelling with large ranges of uncertainties. According to Japan’s Science Ministry, 318 the Fukushima accident contaminated an area of 30,000 km 2 in Japan to a level above 10,000 Bq per km 2 of Cs-137. Chernobyl contaminated an area of an estimated 1,437,000 km 2 in Europe and the former USSR above this level, a 50 times larger area. 319 The Japanese Science Ministry also stated that 8 percent of Japan’s land area was contaminated to this level. 320 In comparison, 37 percent of Europe was affected to the same level. Table 10 indicates that it was not just the land areas contaminated and collective doses but also the radionuclide amounts released to the air, and the populations affected that were larger by land 316 Board of Audit of Japan, “Report on the results of the accounting audit regarding the implementation status of government's assistance provided to TEPCO for compensation for nuclear damage”, March 2015, (in Japanese), see http://www.jbaudit.go.jp/pr/kensa/result/27/pdf/270323_zenbun_01.pdf, accessed 12 April 2016. 317 Miami Herald, “Ruined Chernobyl nuclear plant will remain a threat for 3,000 years”, 24 April 2016, see http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article73405857.html, accessed 23 June 2016. 318 Climate Progress, “Radiation Covers 8% of Japan, Fukushima Crisis ‘Stunting Children’s Growth’ (Though Not Directly Due to Radiation)”, 28 November 2011, see http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/28/377120/radiation-japan-fukushima-stunting-childrens-growth/ accessed 30 June 2016. 319 Ian Fairlie, “TORCH-2016—An independent scientific evaluation of the health-related effects of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster”, 31 March 2016, see https://www.global2000.at/sites/global/files/GLOBAL_TORCH%202016_rz_WEB_KORR.pdf, accessed 4 June 2016. 320 Climate Progress, op. cit. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 99 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
contamination. In all parameters listed, Chernobyl’s effects were greater than those at Fukushima. Little is known about total discharges to the sea, from aerial disposal and from direct liquid releases. Table 10 : Comparison of Selected Parameters of the Chernobyl and Fukushima Accidents Chernobyl Fukushima Factor Area contaminated (>10,000Bq/m 2 Cs-137) 1,437,000 km 2 ** 30,000 km 2^ ~50 x Percentage of landmass 37% of Europe** 8% of Japan^ ~5 x Cs-137 source term 85 PBq* 12 PBq* ~7 x I-131 source term 1,760 PBq* 150 PBq* ~12 x Collective dose 320,000-480,000** person-Sv 321 48,000* person-Sv ~7-10 x Collective dose to thyroid 2,240,000** person-Gray 322 112,000* person-Gray ~20 x Evacuees (first year) 130,000 ** 170,000+ ~0.8 x Clean-up workers (first year) 130,000** 12,000+ ~12 x Sources: *UNSCEAR 2013 323 ; **TORCH-2016 324 ; ^ Japanese Science Ministry 325 , +Fairlie (2016) 326 321 Person-sievert is a unit of collective dose for whole body exposures 322 Person-gray is a unit of collective dose for specific organ exposures. 323 UNSCEAR, “UNSCEAR 2013 Report — Volume I, Report to the General Assembly ; Scientific Annex A: Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident after 2011 great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami”, United Nations, April 2014, see http://www.unscear.org/docs/reports/2013/13- 85418_Report_2013_Annex_A.pdf, accessed 5 June 2016. 324 Ian Fairlie, “TORCH-2016”, 31 March 2016, see https://www.global2000.at/sites/global/files/GLOBAL_TORCH%202016_rz_WEB_KORR.pdf, accessed 4 June 2016. 325 Climate Progress, “Radiation Covers 8% of Japan, Fukushima Crisis ‘Stunting Children’s Growth’ (Though Not Directly Due to Radiation)”, 28 November 2011, see http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/28/377120/radiation-japan-fukushima-stunting-childrens-growth/, accessed 30 June 2016. 326 Ian Fairlie, “Summing the Health Effects of the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster”, August 2015, see http://www.ianfairlie.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Summing-up-the-Effects-of-the-Fukushima-Nuclear- Disaster-10.pdf, accessed 6 July 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 100 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
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A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
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EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
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TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
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Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
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Executive Summary and Conclusions K
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WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
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AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
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Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
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Introduction A major accident, like
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the past two decades, nuclear power
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There were three exceptions in 2015
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In the first half of 2016, three re
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The current world fleet has a total
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However, many of those projects (48
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Table 2: Reactor Construction Times
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Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
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large-scale new-build. Having asses
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Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
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timeframe are highly unlikely given
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The IAEA says that, “seven countr
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for four units equaled approximatel
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Over the past year, the design sele
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In Turkey, up to three projects are
Page 49 and 50: electricity generating company (EÜ
Page 51 and 52: However, Rosatom highlighted the
Page 53 and 54: eportedly considering “suspending
Page 55 and 56: start in 2020 and commercial operat
Page 57 and 58: floating reactors. 160 There is als
Page 59 and 60: nonetheless suggested that the proj
Page 61 and 62: Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdow
Page 63 and 64: in the U.S. in 2013 from US$5/MBTU
Page 65 and 66: decides not to proceed with Hinkley
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Page 69 and 70: apply across the whole European mar
Page 71 and 72: Supervision and Administration Comm
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Page 75 and 76: Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
Page 77 and 78: Sequence and Origin of the Accident
Page 79 and 80: a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
Page 81 and 82: Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
Page 83 and 84: In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Rep
Page 85 and 86: in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
Page 87 and 88: The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
Page 89 and 90: emove the fuel-containing masses (c
Page 91 and 92: around 4.4 m 3 /hour. 270 Therefore
Page 93 and 94: Current status of workers The gover
Page 95 and 96: The government is aggressively seek
Page 97 and 98: (Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
Page 99: Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
Page 103 and 104: However, the average thyroid dose i
Page 105 and 106: • The Global Energy Assessment 20
Page 107 and 108: decisions for the construction of n
Page 109 and 110: consecutive year, making up about 7
Page 111 and 112: US$43 billion and wind power was US
Page 113 and 114: Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
Page 115 and 116: hydro renewables power generation a
Page 117 and 118: Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
Page 119 and 120: The November 2013 edition of the In
Page 121 and 122: its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
Page 123 and 124: ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
Page 125 and 126: LTEP, released in December 2013, co
Page 127 and 128: The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
Page 129 and 130: units had received a license extens
Page 131 and 132: the capacity market auctions, the p
Page 133 and 134: subsidies already. First, Illinois
Page 135 and 136: Conservation (DEC) to deny the plan
Page 137 and 138: & 2 in Illinois, Pilgrim in Massach
Page 139 and 140: Pending Combined Operating License
Page 141 and 142: traditionally been sited, but also
Page 143 and 144: projects only after Sanmen-1 ‘suc
Page 145 and 146: geographically the nuclear plant th
Page 147 and 148: (US$6.6 billion), 546 to as low as
Page 149 and 150: work on site in India for six AP100
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in regulatory safety inspections re
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2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
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The options for how such targets wo
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seismic fault line at the site. The
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The IRRS team concluded that the NR
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meeting the new regulatory guidelin
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declared for the reactor and while
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However, observers saw a “dramati
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Despite the government’s commitme
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end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
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after its license had expired, but
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The following section provides a sh
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espectively over one month and two
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On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
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In parallel, Fortum Power has been
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levels. It now looks plausible that
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The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
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esulting in a loss of market share,
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for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
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and coal-fired generation fell back
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announced in April 2004 that his go
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nuclear energy, in the form of dire
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for the £16 billion (US$30 billion
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to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
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2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
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assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
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Hungary has only one nuclear power
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concluded that when making assumpti
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in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
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of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
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eactors at the site has been put ba
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Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
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Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
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Comments WNISR considers that the 1
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Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
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Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
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Plant Grid Connection Extension App
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Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
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Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
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GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
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PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
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Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
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Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
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Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
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15 Delayed again. A further delay o
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38 Delayed several times. This esti
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