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uncertain. 596 Wider corporate Japan is increasingly skeptical of the prospects for attaining a high share. 597 Several scenarios indicating a share of less than 10 percent were published during 2015. 598 In May 2016, indications emerged that this lower target may be adopted in a revised energy plan. Reflecting the unrealistic prospects for nuclear reactor restarts and continuing strong public opposition, unnamed sources suggested that an updated energy plan to be released in 2017 would revise downwards the nuclear share to between 10 and 15 percent. 599 Figure 43: Electricity Generation in Japan by Source 2006-2015 TWh 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 Japan: Power Generation by Source 2006-2015 in TWh © Mycle Schneider Consulting 400 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Geothermal & renewables Hydro Oil LNG Coal Nuclear Source: FEPC, 2016 600 596 Shigeru Muraki, “Plenary Discussion: Managing Global Risks—Markets, Geopolitics and Climate”, Tokyo Gas, Columbia Global Energy Summit, 28 April 2015, see http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/eventscalendar/2015-columbia-global-energy-summit, accessed 2 July 2016. 597 Reuters, “Japan Inc not as keen as Abe government on nuclear power—Reuters poll”, 24 May 2015, see http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/24/japan-companies-nuclearidUSL3N0YB2PR20150524?feedType=RSS&feedName=utilitiesSector, accessed 2 July 2016. 598 Shaun Burnie, “Reality Check: Energy Mix 2030 and Japan’s Collapse in Nuclear Power Generation”, Greenpeace Germany, Published 24 April 2015, Updated June 2015, see http://www.greenpeace.org/japan/Global/japan/pdf/20150428-briefing-energy-mix.pdf, accessed 2 July 2016; and BNEF, “Japan’s likely 2030 energy mix: more gas and solar”, 2 June 2015, see http://about.bnef.com/white-papers/japans-likely-2030-energy-mix-gas-solar/, accessed 12 May 2016. 599 Reuters, “Japan to cut emphasis on nuclear in next energy plan: sources”, 26 May 2016, see http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-nuclear-idUSKCN0YI06Z, accessed 25 June 2016. 600 FEPC, “Summary of Press Conference Comments Made by Makoto Yagi, FEPC Chairman”, 20 May 2016, see https://www.fepc.or.jp/english/news/conference/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2016/05/24/kaiken_e_20160520.pdf, accessed 5 July 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 153 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
The options for how such targets would be attained are of course dependent upon multiple factors, in particular installed capacity per reactor. Taking into account the major uncertainties, one scenario for a 10 percent target would require the operation of 13 of the reactors currently under NRA review, including start up and operation of the two Advanced Boiling Water Reactors (ABWR) under construction at Shimane and Ohma. A 15 percent target would require either the operation of all 26 reactors that have applied to the NRA for review, and therefore include the operation of reactors beyond their 40-year lifetime; or a combination of 40-year plus reactors together with additional reactors that have yet to apply for review. Specifically, the uncertainties in the prospects for reactor restart mean that, no matter what target percentage is set, the Japanese Government and utilities simply do not know, how many of Japan’s 36 remaining reactors will be restarted, nor when. People often wonder, how Japan could handle the loss of close to 30 percent of the electricity generating capacity following the 3/11 events without any major blackouts. As Figure 43 illustrates, there were two key components, savings/energy efficiency and increased fossil fuel use. Compared to 2010, consumption dropped nationwide by 5 percent in 2011. One remarkable aspect is that consumption did not pick up again, on the contrary, continued to fall: In 2015, national power consumption was 12 percent below the 2010 level. The fuel shift between 2010 and 2015 shows an increase of 5 percentage points for both, natural gas and coal, while the oil consumption, after a brief surge, fell back to its pre-3/11 levels. Renewables pick up only slowly and contribute now about 5 percent to the mix compared to 1 percent in 2010. The 2014 Strategic Energy Plan maintained the long-standing government policy of promoting spent nuclear fuel reprocessing and plutonium mixed oxide fuel (MOX) use in commercial reactors. In a further signal of tensions and challenges within Japan’s nuclear industry, the Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC), which represents the nation’s ten nuclear power utilities, announced on 20 November 2016 the indefinite postponement of a target date for loading plutonium Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel into 16-18 light water reactors. 601 The plans to use MOX fuel have for the past two decades been the justification used for Japan’s accumulation of plutonium through reprocessing. The Takahama-3 reactor, operated between 29 January and 10 March with MOX fuel, and the MOX-fueled reactor Takahama-4, are now shutdown. The first reactor to resume operation with MOX fuel will likely be Ikata-3 scheduled for summer 2016. The 22 nd delay in beginning the commercial operation of the Rokkasho-mura reprocessing plant, intended to produce plutonium for use in MOX fuel, was announced in November 2015. 602 Originally scheduled to begin operation in 1997, construction of the plant began in 1993. 603 601 NW, “Japan postpones plans to use MOX fuel”, 26 November 2015. 602 JNFL, “Extraordinary Press Conference—Schedule Change of Completion of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant and MOX Fuel Fabrication Plant”, 16 November 2015, see http://www.jnfl.co.jp/en/release/presidenttalk/2015/20151116.html, accessed 17 June 2016. 603 Shaun Burnie, Frank Barnaby, et al., “Nuclear Proliferation in Plain Sight: Japan’s Plutonium Fuel Cycle– A Technical and Economic Failure But a Strategic Success”, The Asia-Pacific Journal, Volume 14, Issue 5, 1 March 2016, see http://apjjf.org/-Shaun-Burnie--Frank-Barnaby--Tom-Clements--Aileen-Mioko-Smith-- Kendra-Ulrich/4860/article.pdf, accessed 17 June 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 154 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
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A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
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EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
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TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
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Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
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Executive Summary and Conclusions K
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WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
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AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
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Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
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Introduction A major accident, like
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the past two decades, nuclear power
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There were three exceptions in 2015
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In the first half of 2016, three re
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The current world fleet has a total
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However, many of those projects (48
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Table 2: Reactor Construction Times
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Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
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large-scale new-build. Having asses
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Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
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timeframe are highly unlikely given
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The IAEA says that, “seven countr
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for four units equaled approximatel
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Over the past year, the design sele
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In Turkey, up to three projects are
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electricity generating company (EÜ
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However, Rosatom highlighted the
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eportedly considering “suspending
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start in 2020 and commercial operat
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floating reactors. 160 There is als
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nonetheless suggested that the proj
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Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdow
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in the U.S. in 2013 from US$5/MBTU
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decides not to proceed with Hinkley
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market capital for renewable energy
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apply across the whole European mar
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Supervision and Administration Comm
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export market to countries such as
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Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
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Sequence and Origin of the Accident
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a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
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Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
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In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Rep
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in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
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The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
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emove the fuel-containing masses (c
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around 4.4 m 3 /hour. 270 Therefore
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Current status of workers The gover
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The government is aggressively seek
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(Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
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Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
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contamination. In all parameters li
Page 103 and 104: However, the average thyroid dose i
Page 105 and 106: • The Global Energy Assessment 20
Page 107 and 108: decisions for the construction of n
Page 109 and 110: consecutive year, making up about 7
Page 111 and 112: US$43 billion and wind power was US
Page 113 and 114: Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
Page 115 and 116: hydro renewables power generation a
Page 117 and 118: Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
Page 119 and 120: The November 2013 edition of the In
Page 121 and 122: its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
Page 123 and 124: ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
Page 125 and 126: LTEP, released in December 2013, co
Page 127 and 128: The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
Page 129 and 130: units had received a license extens
Page 131 and 132: the capacity market auctions, the p
Page 133 and 134: subsidies already. First, Illinois
Page 135 and 136: Conservation (DEC) to deny the plan
Page 137 and 138: & 2 in Illinois, Pilgrim in Massach
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Page 141 and 142: traditionally been sited, but also
Page 143 and 144: projects only after Sanmen-1 ‘suc
Page 145 and 146: geographically the nuclear plant th
Page 147 and 148: (US$6.6 billion), 546 to as low as
Page 149 and 150: work on site in India for six AP100
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Page 153: 2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
Page 157 and 158: seismic fault line at the site. The
Page 159 and 160: The IRRS team concluded that the NR
Page 161 and 162: meeting the new regulatory guidelin
Page 163 and 164: declared for the reactor and while
Page 165 and 166: However, observers saw a “dramati
Page 167 and 168: Despite the government’s commitme
Page 169 and 170: end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
Page 171 and 172: after its license had expired, but
Page 173 and 174: The following section provides a sh
Page 175 and 176: espectively over one month and two
Page 177 and 178: On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
Page 179 and 180: In parallel, Fortum Power has been
Page 181 and 182: levels. It now looks plausible that
Page 183 and 184: The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
Page 185 and 186: esulting in a loss of market share,
Page 187 and 188: for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
Page 189 and 190: and coal-fired generation fell back
Page 191 and 192: announced in April 2004 that his go
Page 193 and 194: nuclear energy, in the form of dire
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Page 197 and 198: to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
Page 199 and 200: 2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
Page 201 and 202: assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
Page 203 and 204: Hungary has only one nuclear power
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concluded that when making assumpti
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in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
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of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
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eactors at the site has been put ba
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Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
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Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
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Comments WNISR considers that the 1
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Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
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Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
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Plant Grid Connection Extension App
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Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
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Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
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GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
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PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
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Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
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Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
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Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
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15 Delayed again. A further delay o
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38 Delayed several times. This esti
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