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that have passed the 40-year lifetime, we assume they will operate to the end of their licensed operating time. A second scenario (Plant Life Extension or PLEX Projection, see Figure 18) takes into account all already-authorized lifetime extensions. The lifetime projections allow for an evaluation of the number of plants and respective power generating capacity that would have to come on line over the next decades to offset closures and simply maintain the same number of operating plants and capacity. Even with all units under construction assumed to have gone online by 2021, an installation rate of about 10.5 per year— installed nuclear capacity would drop by 1.7 GW by 2020, which is marginal. However, in total, 22 additional reactors (compared to the end of 2015 status) would have to be ordered, built and started up prior to the end of 2020 in order to maintain the status quo of the number of operating units. This corresponds to about four additional grid connections per year and would raise the annual startups to about 15. This installation rate would be three times as high as the actual 46 grid connections over the decade 2006–July 2016. In fact, considering even the lowest average construction times, 17 of these 22 units (5 have come on-line in the first half of 2016) would have to be launched over the coming year and be completed without delay. Figure 17: The 40-Year Lifetime Projection (not including LTOs) Capacity in GWe 10 Projection 2016-2061 of Nuclear Reactor Numbers/Capacity Operating and Under Construction in the World in July 2016 General assumption of 40 years of mean lifetime (GWe and number of units) Number of Reactors 10 0 0 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2061 -10 -20 -30 Net Balance Reactors Added - Shut-down Capacity Added - Shut-down © Mycle Schneider Consulting -10 -20 -30 -40 2016-20 -22 reactors -1,743 GW 2021-2030 -187 reactors - 175 GW 2031-2040 -67 reactors - 56 GW 2041-2050 -28 reactors - 22 GW 2051-2061 -92 reactors - 87 GW -40 Sources: IAEA-PRIS, WNA, various sources compiled by MSC 2016 In the following decade to 2030, 187 new reactors (175 GW) would have to be connected to the grid to maintain the status quo, four times the rate achieved over the past decade. The achievement of the 2020 targets will mainly depend on the number of Japanese reactors currently in LTO possibly coming back on line and the development pattern of the Chinese construction program. Any major achievements outside these two countries in the given Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 37 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
timeframe are highly unlikely given the existing difficult financial situation of the world’s main reactor builders and utilities, the general economic environment, the decline of power consumption in many countries, widespread skepticism in the financial community, and generally hostile public opinion—aside from any other specific post-Fukushima effects. Figure 18: The PLEX Projection (not including LTOs) Capacity in GWe 10 Projection 2016-2061 of Nuclear Reactor Numbers/Capacity Operating and Under Construction in the World in July 2016 General assumption of 40 years of mean lifetime + Authorized Lifetime Extensions (GWe and number of units) Number of Reactors 10 0 0 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2061 -10 -20 -30 -40 Net Balance 2016-20 + 2 reactors 17 GW 2021-2030 -163 reactors - 144,5 GW 2031-2040 -85 reactors - 71,5 GW Reactors Added - Shut-down Capacity Added - Shut-down 2041-2050 -58 reactors - 56 GW 2051-2061 -92 reactors - 87 GW © Mycle Schneider Consulting -10 -20 -30 -40 Sources: IAEA-PRIS, WNA, various sources compiled by MSC 2016 Figure 19: Forty-Year Lifetime Projection versus PLEX Projection Units 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Number of Reactors in Operation in the World from 2016 to 2061 LTO Lifetime >40 Years Lifetime ≤40 Years © Mycle Schneider Consulting 0 07/2016 2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2061 Sources: IAEA-PRIS, US-NRC, MSC 2016 Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 38 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
Page 1 and 2: A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
Page 3 and 4: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
Page 5 and 6: EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
Page 7 and 8: TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
Page 9 and 10: Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
Page 11 and 12: Executive Summary and Conclusions K
Page 13 and 14: WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
Page 15 and 16: AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
Page 17 and 18: Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
Page 19 and 20: Introduction A major accident, like
Page 21 and 22: the past two decades, nuclear power
Page 23 and 24: There were three exceptions in 2015
Page 25 and 26: In the first half of 2016, three re
Page 27 and 28: The current world fleet has a total
Page 29 and 30: However, many of those projects (48
Page 31 and 32: Table 2: Reactor Construction Times
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
Page 35 and 36: large-scale new-build. Having asses
Page 37: Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
Page 41 and 42: The IAEA says that, “seven countr
Page 43 and 44: for four units equaled approximatel
Page 45 and 46: Over the past year, the design sele
Page 47 and 48: In Turkey, up to three projects are
Page 49 and 50: electricity generating company (EÜ
Page 51 and 52: However, Rosatom highlighted the
Page 53 and 54: eportedly considering “suspending
Page 55 and 56: start in 2020 and commercial operat
Page 57 and 58: floating reactors. 160 There is als
Page 59 and 60: nonetheless suggested that the proj
Page 61 and 62: Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdow
Page 63 and 64: in the U.S. in 2013 from US$5/MBTU
Page 65 and 66: decides not to proceed with Hinkley
Page 67 and 68: market capital for renewable energy
Page 69 and 70: apply across the whole European mar
Page 71 and 72: Supervision and Administration Comm
Page 73 and 74: export market to countries such as
Page 75 and 76: Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
Page 77 and 78: Sequence and Origin of the Accident
Page 79 and 80: a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
Page 81 and 82: Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
Page 83 and 84: In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Rep
Page 85 and 86: in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
Page 87 and 88: The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
Page 89 and 90:
emove the fuel-containing masses (c
Page 91 and 92:
around 4.4 m 3 /hour. 270 Therefore
Page 93 and 94:
Current status of workers The gover
Page 95 and 96:
The government is aggressively seek
Page 97 and 98:
(Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
Page 99 and 100:
Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
Page 101 and 102:
contamination. In all parameters li
Page 103 and 104:
However, the average thyroid dose i
Page 105 and 106:
• The Global Energy Assessment 20
Page 107 and 108:
decisions for the construction of n
Page 109 and 110:
consecutive year, making up about 7
Page 111 and 112:
US$43 billion and wind power was US
Page 113 and 114:
Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
Page 115 and 116:
hydro renewables power generation a
Page 117 and 118:
Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
Page 119 and 120:
The November 2013 edition of the In
Page 121 and 122:
its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
Page 123 and 124:
ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
Page 125 and 126:
LTEP, released in December 2013, co
Page 127 and 128:
The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
Page 129 and 130:
units had received a license extens
Page 131 and 132:
the capacity market auctions, the p
Page 133 and 134:
subsidies already. First, Illinois
Page 135 and 136:
Conservation (DEC) to deny the plan
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& 2 in Illinois, Pilgrim in Massach
Page 139 and 140:
Pending Combined Operating License
Page 141 and 142:
traditionally been sited, but also
Page 143 and 144:
projects only after Sanmen-1 ‘suc
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geographically the nuclear plant th
Page 147 and 148:
(US$6.6 billion), 546 to as low as
Page 149 and 150:
work on site in India for six AP100
Page 151 and 152:
in regulatory safety inspections re
Page 153 and 154:
2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
Page 155 and 156:
The options for how such targets wo
Page 157 and 158:
seismic fault line at the site. The
Page 159 and 160:
The IRRS team concluded that the NR
Page 161 and 162:
meeting the new regulatory guidelin
Page 163 and 164:
declared for the reactor and while
Page 165 and 166:
However, observers saw a “dramati
Page 167 and 168:
Despite the government’s commitme
Page 169 and 170:
end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
Page 171 and 172:
after its license had expired, but
Page 173 and 174:
The following section provides a sh
Page 175 and 176:
espectively over one month and two
Page 177 and 178:
On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
Page 179 and 180:
In parallel, Fortum Power has been
Page 181 and 182:
levels. It now looks plausible that
Page 183 and 184:
The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
Page 185 and 186:
esulting in a loss of market share,
Page 187 and 188:
for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
Page 189 and 190:
and coal-fired generation fell back
Page 191 and 192:
announced in April 2004 that his go
Page 193 and 194:
nuclear energy, in the form of dire
Page 195 and 196:
for the £16 billion (US$30 billion
Page 197 and 198:
to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
Page 199 and 200:
2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
Page 201 and 202:
assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
Page 203 and 204:
Hungary has only one nuclear power
Page 205 and 206:
concluded that when making assumpti
Page 207 and 208:
in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
Page 209 and 210:
of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
Page 211 and 212:
eactors at the site has been put ba
Page 213 and 214:
Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
Page 215 and 216:
Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
Page 217 and 218:
Comments WNISR considers that the 1
Page 219 and 220:
Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
Page 221 and 222:
Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
Page 223 and 224:
Plant Grid Connection Extension App
Page 225 and 226:
Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
Page 227 and 228:
Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
Page 229 and 230:
GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
Page 231 and 232:
PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
Page 233 and 234:
Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
Page 235 and 236:
Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
Page 237 and 238:
Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
Page 239 and 240:
15 Delayed again. A further delay o
Page 241:
38 Delayed several times. This esti
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