CONSULTING

nonetheless suggested that the project would be put back on track faster than this, with a
suggestion that KA-CARE could bring forward proposals for new-build in 2015. 172
Hashim Yamani, president of the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy has said:
“Recently, however, we have revised the outlook together with our stakeholders to focus on 2040
as the major milestone for long-term energy planning in Saudi Arabia.” 173 No reason was given for
the delay or when the first nuclear and solar plants would be operational. The falling oil price and
subsequent drop in Government revenues is likely to delay or curtail capital intensive project,
such as nuclear.
During 2015, new co-operation agreements were signed with France, Russia, China and South
Korea. The last seemed to be the most advanced and includes proposals for the building of two
SMART small modular reactors and ongoing research and collaboration. 174
Conclusion on Potential Newcomer Countries
Historically, the expansion of nuclear power into new countries is extremely slow; in the last two
decades only two countries, Romania (1996) and Iran (2011), started power reactors for the first
time, while over the same time period two countries, Kazakhstan and Lithuania, closed theirs. In
the next few years, two countries are expected to start generating electricity from nuclear reactors
for the first time, but their experiences are extremely different. On the one hand is the UAE, which
if it starts the first unit at the Barakah nuclear power plant next year, will be a remarkable
achievement, as it will be completed on time. In Belarus, at the Ostrovets site, project costs seem
to have risen, and officially the construction phase is on schedule, but without any independent
verification, there is considerable skepticism over the validity of the claim. As the summary table
shows in all of the emerging new countries their programs have experienced significant delays
and most are exhibiting rises in expected costs. In reality, beyond Turkey it is difficult to imagine
any of the countries that are so far not yet building any nuclear power plants, completing new
reactors before the 2030s.
Furthermore, it is important to note the dominance of Russian technology in the proposed
projects. Most, if not all, of these proposed sales are backed by Russian finance. However, given
the economic problems in Russia in particular relating to the lower global fossil fuel prices and
ongoing economic embargoes, it is likely that many of these are to be further delayed or curtailed.
172 NIW, “Briefs—Saudi Arabia”, 15 November 2014; and Ahmad A., Ramana M.V., “Too costly to matter:
Economics of nuclear power for Saudi Arabia”, Energy Journal, 1 May 2014.
173 Reuters, “Saudi Arabia's nuclear, renewable energy plans pushed back”, 19 January 2015, see
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/19/saudi-nuclear-energy-idUSL6N0UY2LS20150119, accessed
24 June 2016.
174 NIW, “Saudi Arabia, Will Water Scarcity Spur Nuclear Growth?”, 31 July 2015.
Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 58 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016