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Table 3: Reactor Construction Schedules in Potential Newcomer Countries Country Reactor Name Proposed Vendor Initial Startup Date Latest Suggested Construction Start Latest Startup Date IAEA Category: Under Construction Belarus Ostrovets Rosatom 2019/20 2019/20 UAE Barakah KEPCO 2017/18/19/20 2017/18/19/20 IAEA Category: Contract Signed or Advanced Development Bangladesh Rooppur Rosatom 2018 2016 Lithuania Visegrade Hitachi 2020 Suspended Turkey Akkuyu Rosatom 2015 2022 Sinop Mitsubishi/Areva 2017 Ingeada SNPTC/Westinghouse 2019 Vietnam Ninh Thuan Rosatom 2020 Suspended Egypt Rosatom 2019 Jordan Rosatom 2019 Poland 2020 IAEA Category: Well Developed Plans Chile 2024 Suspended Indonesia Rosatom Abandoned Kazakhstan Rosatom or Westinghouse ? Thailand 2020-28 ? 2036 Saudi Arabia 2020 ? 2040 Sources: Various, compiled by WNISR, 2016 Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 59 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdown? Nuclear power has a significantly different finance profile to the other conventional power plant technologies, with, under normal circumstances, large upfront construction costs, relatively small fuel costs and at the end of operational life, increasing operational costs as well as significant decommissioning and waste management costs. Furthermore, as other sections of the report have shown, nuclear construction projects have recently demonstrated an almost inherent inability to be built to time and cost. Under these circumstances, the views and actions of the markets, creditrating companies and analysists can be decisive for the competitiveness of nuclear power. Some years ago, many saw the call for decarbonization as an opportunity for nuclear power to expand, given that no greenhouse gases are emitted during operation—although significant CO2 emissions are generated during other parts of the fuel and operational chain. However, as illustrated in the nuclear vs renewables chapter, this has not occurred and it is renewables, particularly solar and wind power, that have over the last decades been deployed at scale. Steve Kidd, long-term nuclear industry strategist, has gone as far as suggesting “to abandon climate change as a prime argument for supporting a much higher use of nuclear power to satisfy rapidlyrising world power needs”. 175 The reason: The nuclear industry giving credence to climate change from fossil fuels has simply led to a stronger renewables industry. Nuclear seems to be “too difficult” and gets sidelined - as it has within the entire process since the original Kyoto accords. And now renewables, often thought of as useful complements to nuclear, begin to threaten it in power markets when there is abundant power from renewables when the wind blows and the sun shines. Indeed, there is growing conflict between the power produced by variable renewables, such as wind and solar power, and the large centralized capacity operating around the clock (traditionally known as base-load capacity), such as nuclear power and coal. In particular, many renewable energy sources have priority access to the grid system and/or have lower operating costs than conventional sources and therefore, when they are able to generate, it is their electricity that enters the grid system. As more and more solar and wind is deployed, they are taking a greater and greater share of the market at particular times, therefore, restricting the production sales of other power sources 176 , especially in North America and Western Europe, regions where there is also flat or falling power demand. On 15 May 2016, in Germany, the world’s 4th largest economy, for a few hours over 80 percent of the country’s power was provided for by renewables 177 ; a country with 10.8 GW of installed nuclear and 48 GW of coal and lignite capacity. Therefore, it is clear that as renewables make an ever increasing contribution to the power mix, then any conventional power capacity will need to be smaller, more flexible units that compliment 175 Steve Kidd, “Is climate change the worst argument for nuclear?”, NEI, 21 January 2015, see http://www.neimagazine.com/opinion/opinionis-climate-change-the-worst-argument-for-nuclear-4493537/, accessed 1 July 2016. 176 Ela E., Milligan M., et al.,“Evolution of Wholesale Electricity Market Design with Increasing Levels of Renewable Generation”, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S.DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, September 2014, see http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/61765.pdf, accessed 12 June 2016. 177 Renewables international, “Reports of 100% renewable power in Germany vastly overstated”, 17 May 2016, see http://www.renewablesinternational.net/reports-of-100-renewable-power-in-germanyvastly-overstated/150/537/95397/, accessed 1 July 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 60 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
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A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
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EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
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TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
Page 9 and 10: Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
Page 11 and 12: Executive Summary and Conclusions K
Page 13 and 14: WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
Page 15 and 16: AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
Page 17 and 18: Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
Page 19 and 20: Introduction A major accident, like
Page 21 and 22: the past two decades, nuclear power
Page 23 and 24: There were three exceptions in 2015
Page 25 and 26: In the first half of 2016, three re
Page 27 and 28: The current world fleet has a total
Page 29 and 30: However, many of those projects (48
Page 31 and 32: Table 2: Reactor Construction Times
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
Page 35 and 36: large-scale new-build. Having asses
Page 37 and 38: Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
Page 39 and 40: timeframe are highly unlikely given
Page 41 and 42: The IAEA says that, “seven countr
Page 43 and 44: for four units equaled approximatel
Page 45 and 46: Over the past year, the design sele
Page 47 and 48: In Turkey, up to three projects are
Page 49 and 50: electricity generating company (EÜ
Page 51 and 52: However, Rosatom highlighted the
Page 53 and 54: eportedly considering “suspending
Page 55 and 56: start in 2020 and commercial operat
Page 57 and 58: floating reactors. 160 There is als
Page 59: nonetheless suggested that the proj
Page 63 and 64: in the U.S. in 2013 from US$5/MBTU
Page 65 and 66: decides not to proceed with Hinkley
Page 67 and 68: market capital for renewable energy
Page 69 and 70: apply across the whole European mar
Page 71 and 72: Supervision and Administration Comm
Page 73 and 74: export market to countries such as
Page 75 and 76: Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
Page 77 and 78: Sequence and Origin of the Accident
Page 79 and 80: a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
Page 81 and 82: Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
Page 83 and 84: In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Rep
Page 85 and 86: in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
Page 87 and 88: The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
Page 89 and 90: emove the fuel-containing masses (c
Page 91 and 92: around 4.4 m 3 /hour. 270 Therefore
Page 93 and 94: Current status of workers The gover
Page 95 and 96: The government is aggressively seek
Page 97 and 98: (Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
Page 99 and 100: Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
Page 101 and 102: contamination. In all parameters li
Page 103 and 104: However, the average thyroid dose i
Page 105 and 106: • The Global Energy Assessment 20
Page 107 and 108: decisions for the construction of n
Page 109 and 110: consecutive year, making up about 7
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US$43 billion and wind power was US
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Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
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hydro renewables power generation a
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Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
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The November 2013 edition of the In
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its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
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ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
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LTEP, released in December 2013, co
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The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
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units had received a license extens
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the capacity market auctions, the p
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subsidies already. First, Illinois
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Conservation (DEC) to deny the plan
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& 2 in Illinois, Pilgrim in Massach
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Pending Combined Operating License
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traditionally been sited, but also
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projects only after Sanmen-1 ‘suc
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geographically the nuclear plant th
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(US$6.6 billion), 546 to as low as
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work on site in India for six AP100
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in regulatory safety inspections re
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2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
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The options for how such targets wo
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seismic fault line at the site. The
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The IRRS team concluded that the NR
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meeting the new regulatory guidelin
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declared for the reactor and while
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However, observers saw a “dramati
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Despite the government’s commitme
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end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
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after its license had expired, but
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The following section provides a sh
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espectively over one month and two
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On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
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In parallel, Fortum Power has been
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levels. It now looks plausible that
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The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
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esulting in a loss of market share,
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for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
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and coal-fired generation fell back
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announced in April 2004 that his go
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nuclear energy, in the form of dire
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for the £16 billion (US$30 billion
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to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
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2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
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assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
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Hungary has only one nuclear power
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concluded that when making assumpti
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in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
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of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
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eactors at the site has been put ba
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Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
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Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
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Comments WNISR considers that the 1
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Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
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Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
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Plant Grid Connection Extension App
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Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
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Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
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GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
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PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
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Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
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Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
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Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
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15 Delayed again. A further delay o
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38 Delayed several times. This esti
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