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The IAEA actually does have a reactor-status category called “Long-term Shutdown” or LTS. 23 Under the IAEA’s definition, a reactor is considered in LTS if it has been shut down for an “extended period (usually more than one year)” and in early period of shutdown either restart is not being “aggressively pursued” or “no firm restart date or recovery schedule has been established”. As illustrated in WNISR2013, one could argue that all but two Japanese reactors fit the category that year. 24 The IAEA criteria are vague and hence subject to arbitrary interpretation. What exactly are extended periods? What is aggressively pursuing? What is a firm restart date or recovery schedule? Faced with this dilemma, the WNISR team in 2014 decided to create a new category with a simple definition, based on empirical fact, without room for speculation: “Long-term Outage” or LTO. Its definition: A nuclear reactor is considered in Long-term Outage or LTO if it has not generated any electricity in the previous calendar year and in the first half of the current calendar year. It is withdrawn from operational status retroactively from the day it has been disconnected from the grid. When subsequently the decision is taken to permanently close a reactor, the shutdown status starts with day of the last electricity generation, and the WNISR statistics are modified retroactively accordingly. Tatsujiro Suzuki, former Vice-Chairman of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission (JAEC) has called the establishment of the LTO category an “important innovation” with a “very clear and empirical definition”. 25 Applying this definition to the world nuclear reactor fleet leads to considering 36 Japanese units in LTO, as WNISR considers all ten Fukushima reactors shut down permanently—while the operator Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) has written off the six Daiichi units, it keeps the four Daini reactors in the list of operational facilities. Annex 2 provides a detailed overview of the status of the Japanese reactor fleet. In addition, the IAEA classifies as LTS the fast breeder reactor Monju, 26 because it was shut down after a sodium fire in 1995 and has never generated power since. It also meets WNISR’s LTO criterion. Besides the Japanese reactors, the Swedish reactor Ringhals-2 and the Taiwanese unit Chinshan-1 fall into the LTO category. The total number of nuclear reactors in LTO as of 1 July 2016 is therefore 38; yet all but one (Monju) are considered by the IAEA as “in operation”. As of 1 July 2016, a total of 402 nuclear reactors are operating in 31 countries, up 11 units (+2.8 percent) from the situation in July 2015. This is a considerable increase compared to previous years due to construction starts launched prior to the 3/11 disaster and reactor restarts in Japan. Since 2012, when the world’s reactor fleet had dropped to its lowest level in the past 30 years, this is a cumulated net increase of 19 units. 23 See IAEA Glossary, at www.iaea.org/pris/Glossary.aspx, accessed 1 July 2016. 24 For two days in January 2013, the IAEA moved 47 units to the LTS category on the IAEA-PRIS website, before that action was abruptly reversed and ascribed to clerical error. See detailed accounts on the WNISR website, www.WorldNuclearReport.org. 25 Tatsujiro Suzuki, “Foreword”, WNISR2014, 18 August 2014, see http://www.worldnuclearreport.org/WNISR2014.html#_Toc268768687, accessed 1 July 2016. 26 The IAEA also considers the Spanish reactor Garoña in LTS, while WNISR considers it shut down permanently. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 25 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
The current world fleet has a total nominal electric net capacity of 348 gigawatts (GW or thousand megawatts), up from 337 GW (+3.3 percent) one year earlier (see Figure 7). Figure 7: World Nuclear Reactor Fleet, 1954–2016 GWe 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 © Mycle Schneider Consulting Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World in GWe, from 1954 to 1 July 2016 Reactors in operation Operable capacity 312 GWe 420 reactors 438 reactors 348 GWe 402 reactors Number of Reactors 500 400 300 200 100 50 100 0 0 1954 1960 1970 1980 1989 1990 2000 2002 2010 2015 2016 Sources: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2016 For many years, the net installed capacity has continued to increase more than the net increase of numbers of operating reactors. This was a result of the combined effects of larger units replacing smaller ones and, mainly, technical alterations at existing plants, a process known as uprating. 27 In the United States, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has approved 156 uprates since 1977. The cumulative approved uprates in the United States total 7.3 GW. 28 Only for one site, the three units at Browns Ferry, uprate approval request (for 14.3 percent) has been issued in 2015. Completion is expected in 2017. 29 A similar trend of uprates and major overhauls in view of lifetime extensions of existing reactors has been seen in Europe. The main incentive for lifetime extensions is their considerable economic advantage over new-build. The use of nuclear energy remains limited to a small number of countries, with only 31 countries, or 16 percent of the 193 members of the United Nations, operating nuclear power plants as of July 2016 (see Figure 2). Close to half of the world’s nuclear countries are located in the European 27 Increasing the capacity of nuclear reactors by equipment upgrades e.g. more powerful steam generators or turbines. 28 Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), “Approved Applications for Power Uprates”, Updated 26 August 2014, see www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/licensing/power-uprates/status-power-apps/approvedapplications.html, accessed 10 June 2015. 29 NRC, “Pending Applications for Power Uprates”, Updated 24 May 2016, see http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/licensing/power-uprates/status-power-apps/pending-applications.html, accessed 1 June 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 26 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
Page 1 and 2: A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
Page 3 and 4: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
Page 5 and 6: EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
Page 7 and 8: TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
Page 9 and 10: Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
Page 11 and 12: Executive Summary and Conclusions K
Page 13 and 14: WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
Page 15 and 16: AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
Page 17 and 18: Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
Page 19 and 20: Introduction A major accident, like
Page 21 and 22: the past two decades, nuclear power
Page 23 and 24: There were three exceptions in 2015
Page 25: In the first half of 2016, three re
Page 29 and 30: However, many of those projects (48
Page 31 and 32: Table 2: Reactor Construction Times
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
Page 35 and 36: large-scale new-build. Having asses
Page 37 and 38: Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
Page 39 and 40: timeframe are highly unlikely given
Page 41 and 42: The IAEA says that, “seven countr
Page 43 and 44: for four units equaled approximatel
Page 45 and 46: Over the past year, the design sele
Page 47 and 48: In Turkey, up to three projects are
Page 49 and 50: electricity generating company (EÜ
Page 51 and 52: However, Rosatom highlighted the
Page 53 and 54: eportedly considering “suspending
Page 55 and 56: start in 2020 and commercial operat
Page 57 and 58: floating reactors. 160 There is als
Page 59 and 60: nonetheless suggested that the proj
Page 61 and 62: Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdow
Page 63 and 64: in the U.S. in 2013 from US$5/MBTU
Page 65 and 66: decides not to proceed with Hinkley
Page 67 and 68: market capital for renewable energy
Page 69 and 70: apply across the whole European mar
Page 71 and 72: Supervision and Administration Comm
Page 73 and 74: export market to countries such as
Page 75 and 76: Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
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Sequence and Origin of the Accident
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a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
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Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
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In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Rep
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in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
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The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
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emove the fuel-containing masses (c
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around 4.4 m 3 /hour. 270 Therefore
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Current status of workers The gover
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The government is aggressively seek
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(Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
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Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
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contamination. In all parameters li
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However, the average thyroid dose i
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• The Global Energy Assessment 20
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decisions for the construction of n
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consecutive year, making up about 7
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US$43 billion and wind power was US
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Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
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hydro renewables power generation a
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Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
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The November 2013 edition of the In
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its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
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ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
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LTEP, released in December 2013, co
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The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
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units had received a license extens
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the capacity market auctions, the p
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subsidies already. First, Illinois
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Conservation (DEC) to deny the plan
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& 2 in Illinois, Pilgrim in Massach
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Pending Combined Operating License
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traditionally been sited, but also
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projects only after Sanmen-1 ‘suc
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geographically the nuclear plant th
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(US$6.6 billion), 546 to as low as
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work on site in India for six AP100
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in regulatory safety inspections re
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2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
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The options for how such targets wo
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seismic fault line at the site. The
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The IRRS team concluded that the NR
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meeting the new regulatory guidelin
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declared for the reactor and while
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However, observers saw a “dramati
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Despite the government’s commitme
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end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
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after its license had expired, but
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The following section provides a sh
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espectively over one month and two
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On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
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In parallel, Fortum Power has been
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levels. It now looks plausible that
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The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
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esulting in a loss of market share,
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for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
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and coal-fired generation fell back
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announced in April 2004 that his go
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nuclear energy, in the form of dire
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for the £16 billion (US$30 billion
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to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
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2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
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assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
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Hungary has only one nuclear power
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concluded that when making assumpti
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in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
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of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
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eactors at the site has been put ba
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Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
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Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
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Comments WNISR considers that the 1
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Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
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Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
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Plant Grid Connection Extension App
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Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
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Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
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GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
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PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
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Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
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Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
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Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
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15 Delayed again. A further delay o
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38 Delayed several times. This esti
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