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ather than conflict with the increasingly cheap renewables, as well as interact rapidly with other balancing options, such as energy storage or flexible demand. This view is shared by many politicians, 178 financiers 179 , and industry experts, including Steve Holliday, then CEO of the U.K.’s National Grid, which owns and operates the infrastructure and is responsible for grid balancing, who stated: From a consumer’s point of view, the solar on the rooftop is going to be the baseload. Centralized power stations will be increasingly used to provide peak demand 180 . The falling manufacturing costs—the solar PV module costs have fallen 80 percent since 2008— and the subsequent lower operating cost of renewables—the levelized costs of onshore wind power has fallen 50 percent since 2009 181 —is also reducing the market price for power. This is most starkly seen in Europe, with major utilities seeing this not as a cyclical trend but as a permanent change. “I think that the price of electricity has no reason to rise. It will never be like it was before,” stated Isabelle Kocher, chief executive of French company ENGIE, the world's largest non-state-owned producer of electricity. 182 Most traditional utility companies have been slow to invest in renewable energies and most onshore wind and solar PV are not owned by the incumbent utilities. Given that solar and wind have been and are expected, by the International Energy Agency (IEA), amongst others, to be the largest source of new capacity to be deployed on the medium term 183 , many utilities are changing their business focus. In Germany, two of the largest power companies, E.ON and RWE, have announced that they will both split in two and develop a conventional business arm and another deal with renewable energy and energy services. While in France, the bastion of large scale, centralized electricity planning, ENGIE, formally known as GDF-Suez, has also announced that it too will focus on energy services. 184 In addition to, and in part as a result of, these changes the short-term prices of fossil fuels have fallen considerably, with coal prices in Europe in 2008 were approximately US$200/ton, while in Asia achieved only about US$175/ton, but both fell to less than US$75/ton in 2015 185 and are expected to fall to US$50/ton during 2016 in Europe. 186 Globally natural gas prices have also fallen 178 Giles Parkinson, “The end of baseload? It may come sooner than you think”, RenewEconomy, 20 February 2012, see http://reneweconomy.com.au/2012/the-end-of-baseload-it-may-come-sooner-thanyou-think-29425, accessed 19 May 2016. 179 Frank Wouters, “Inflexible baseload power is just what we don’t need”, Gore Street Capital, Letter in the Financial Times, 20 April 2016, see https://next.ft.com/content/311ac492-0250-11e6-99cb-83242733f755, accessed 19 May 2016. 180 Karel Backman, “Steve Holliday, CEO National Grid: ‘The idea of large power stations for baseload is outdated’”, Energy Post, 11 September 2015, see http://www.energypost.eu/interview-steve-holliday-ceonational-grid-idea-large-power-stations-baseload-power-outdated/, accessed 1 July 2016. 181 Michael Liebreich, “In search of the miraculous”, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) Summit, 5 April 2016, see http://about.bnef.com/content/uploads/sites/4/2016/04/BNEF-Summit-Keynote-2016.pdf, accessed 31 May 2016. 182 Michael Stothard, “Low European power prices her to stay, says utility CEO”, Financial Times, 15 May 2016. 183 IEA, “Renewable Energy, Medium-term market Report 2015—Market Analysis and Forecasts to 2020”, 2015. 184 Geert De Clercq, “UPDATE 3-Engie shifts focus to regulated power as oil and gas take toll”, Reuters, 25 February 2016, see www.reuters.com/article/engie-results-idUSL8N1641DY, accessed 8 July 2016. 185 IEA, “Coal Information 2015”, 2015. 186 Bloomberg, “European Coal Prices Slump to a Record Level”, 22 September 2015, see http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-22/coal-for-2016-declines-below-50-in-europe-as-glut-persists, accessed 1 July 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 61 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
in the U.S. in 2013 from US$5/MBTU 187 to less than US$2/MBTU in 2016, while in Asia and Europe, over the same time period they, respectively, fell from US$20/MBTU and US$11/MBTU to less than US$5/MBTU in 2016. 188 The falling prices of fossil fuels are likely to further drive down the market prices for electricity, particularly affecting the relative economics for nuclear power. Low interest rates are of huge significance for large capital intensive projects like nuclear power. A study published by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the U.S., suggested that halving the annual interest rate for a nuclear power plant that cost US$6000/kW, from 10 to 5 percent, would reduce the final production cost of power by around 40 percent. 189 This approximate assessment is in line with findings from the IAEA, that notes that interest rate and construction period are fundamental to the economics of a project and that : this can be shown by comparing the relative amounts of interest during construction (IDC) incurred by two projects of identical value ([US]$5.75 billion) in terms of overnight costs (costs of materials, equipment, labour, etc.), but which differ in terms of project duration and the rate of interest paid on financing. The total amounts of IDC incurred by these two projects was almost [US]$2.8 billion if a 7 year construction duration and 10% rate of interest was assumed, versus [US]$1 billion if a 5 year duration at a 5% rate of interest was assumed. 190 Given that interest rates are at a historic low and have been for some time, from a cost of borrowing money perspective there has never been a better time for building a nuclear power plants. Despite this, and the availability of capital, there is very little private sector investment in nuclear power. Given this combination of circumstances, it is not surprising that the views of the financial sector towards large incumbent power utilities and the nuclear industry in particular remains as nervous and unforgiving. Credit ratings companies assign ratings on companies’ or government’s expected ability to pay back debt, in a timely manner and therefore, “can and should provide a robust forward looking indication of relative credit risk.” 191 There are three main ratings agencies, Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's (S&P), which together control 80 percent of the global market, while Fitch Ratings controls a further 15 percent. The views of the rating agencies have a large impact on the financial situation of companies and states. It was said, in 2011, of head of S&P, “David Beers might be the most powerful man in the world you have never heard of.” 192 The rating companies assign score cards to companies or governments. S&P's long-term rating system has 10 categories: AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B, CCC, CC, C and D. The rating is given a + or - to indicate that the company is in the upper or lower end of the category. All of the ratings are supplemented with an “outlook”; this is the rating agency’s opinion on the probable short-term 187 MBTU = million British thermal units 188 Financial Times, “Gas price tumble comes as markets are increasingly interlinked”, 10 March 2016, see https://next.ft.com/content/3bc0116c-e681-11e5-a09b-1f8b0d268c39, accessed 15 May 2016. 189 T Jay Harrison, “Economic Conditions and Factors Affecting New Nuclear Power Deployment”, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, DOE, October 2014, see info.ornl.gov/sites/publications/files/Pub52713.pdf, accessed 1 July 2016. 190 IAEA, “Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2015”, October 2015. 191 Paul Taylor, “The role of credit ratings agencies in the International financial system”, President and CEO of Fitch Group, United National General Assembly Thematic Debate, 10 September 2013. 192 Stephen Foley, “S&Ps power chief steps out of the shadows”, 7 August 2011, The Independent, see http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/sampps-powerful-chief-steps-out-of-the-shadows- 2333592.html, accessed 1 July 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 62 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
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A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
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EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
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TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
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Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
Page 11 and 12: Executive Summary and Conclusions K
Page 13 and 14: WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
Page 15 and 16: AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
Page 17 and 18: Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
Page 19 and 20: Introduction A major accident, like
Page 21 and 22: the past two decades, nuclear power
Page 23 and 24: There were three exceptions in 2015
Page 25 and 26: In the first half of 2016, three re
Page 27 and 28: The current world fleet has a total
Page 29 and 30: However, many of those projects (48
Page 31 and 32: Table 2: Reactor Construction Times
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
Page 35 and 36: large-scale new-build. Having asses
Page 37 and 38: Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
Page 39 and 40: timeframe are highly unlikely given
Page 41 and 42: The IAEA says that, “seven countr
Page 43 and 44: for four units equaled approximatel
Page 45 and 46: Over the past year, the design sele
Page 47 and 48: In Turkey, up to three projects are
Page 49 and 50: electricity generating company (EÜ
Page 51 and 52: However, Rosatom highlighted the
Page 53 and 54: eportedly considering “suspending
Page 55 and 56: start in 2020 and commercial operat
Page 57 and 58: floating reactors. 160 There is als
Page 59 and 60: nonetheless suggested that the proj
Page 61: Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdow
Page 65 and 66: decides not to proceed with Hinkley
Page 67 and 68: market capital for renewable energy
Page 69 and 70: apply across the whole European mar
Page 71 and 72: Supervision and Administration Comm
Page 73 and 74: export market to countries such as
Page 75 and 76: Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
Page 77 and 78: Sequence and Origin of the Accident
Page 79 and 80: a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
Page 81 and 82: Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
Page 83 and 84: In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Rep
Page 85 and 86: in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
Page 87 and 88: The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
Page 89 and 90: emove the fuel-containing masses (c
Page 91 and 92: around 4.4 m 3 /hour. 270 Therefore
Page 93 and 94: Current status of workers The gover
Page 95 and 96: The government is aggressively seek
Page 97 and 98: (Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
Page 99 and 100: Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
Page 101 and 102: contamination. In all parameters li
Page 103 and 104: However, the average thyroid dose i
Page 105 and 106: • The Global Energy Assessment 20
Page 107 and 108: decisions for the construction of n
Page 109 and 110: consecutive year, making up about 7
Page 111 and 112: US$43 billion and wind power was US
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Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
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hydro renewables power generation a
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Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
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The November 2013 edition of the In
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its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
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ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
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LTEP, released in December 2013, co
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The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
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units had received a license extens
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the capacity market auctions, the p
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subsidies already. First, Illinois
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Conservation (DEC) to deny the plan
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& 2 in Illinois, Pilgrim in Massach
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Pending Combined Operating License
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traditionally been sited, but also
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projects only after Sanmen-1 ‘suc
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geographically the nuclear plant th
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(US$6.6 billion), 546 to as low as
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work on site in India for six AP100
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in regulatory safety inspections re
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2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
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The options for how such targets wo
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seismic fault line at the site. The
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The IRRS team concluded that the NR
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meeting the new regulatory guidelin
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declared for the reactor and while
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However, observers saw a “dramati
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Despite the government’s commitme
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end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
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after its license had expired, but
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The following section provides a sh
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espectively over one month and two
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On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
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In parallel, Fortum Power has been
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levels. It now looks plausible that
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The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
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esulting in a loss of market share,
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for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
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and coal-fired generation fell back
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announced in April 2004 that his go
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nuclear energy, in the form of dire
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for the £16 billion (US$30 billion
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to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
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2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
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assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
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Hungary has only one nuclear power
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concluded that when making assumpti
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in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
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of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
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eactors at the site has been put ba
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Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
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Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
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Comments WNISR considers that the 1
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Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
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Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
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Plant Grid Connection Extension App
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Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
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Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
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GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
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PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
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Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
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Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
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Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
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15 Delayed again. A further delay o
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38 Delayed several times. This esti
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