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Construction Times Construction Times of Reactors Currently Under Construction A closer look at projects currently listed as “under construction” illustrates the level of uncertainty and problems associated with many of these projects, especially given that most constructors assume a five-year construction period: • As of 1 July 2016, the 58 reactors currently being built have been under construction for an average of 6.2 years. With four reactors that had construction of over 30 years taken off the list— two started up, two have no active construction—and six new construction starts over the year, the average construction time has come down significantly from 7.7 years as of mid-2015. • All reactors under construction in 9 out of 14 countries have experienced mostly year-long delays. At least about two thirds (38) of all building sites are delayed. Most of the 20 remaining units under construction in the world, of which eleven are in China, were begun within the past three years or have not yet reached projected start-up dates, making it difficult to assess whether or not they are on schedule. Uncertainty remains over two Pakistani reactors. • Three reactors have been listed as “under construction” for more than 30 years, Mochovce-3 and -4 in Slovakia, and Rostov-4 in Russia. The U.S. unit Watts Bar-2, 43 years after construction start, was finally connected to the grid on 3 June 2016, but automatically shut down twice in the first three weeks. Considering increasing uncertainty over the restart of construction works at the Russian projects Khmelnitski-3 and-4 in Ukraine, WNISR has pulled the units off the list, three decades after construction start. • Three reactors have been listed as “under construction” for more than a decade, two units in India, Kudankulam-2 and the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), have been listed as “under construction” for 14 and 12 years respectively, and the Olkiluoto-3 reactor project in Finland reached its tenth anniversary in August 2015. The actual lead time for nuclear plant projects includes not only the construction itself but also lengthy licensing procedures in most countries, complex financing negotiations, and site preparation. Construction Times of Past and Currently Operating Reactors There has been a clear global trend towards increasing construction times. National building programs were faster in the early years of nuclear power. As Figure 9 illustrates, construction times of reactors completed in the 1970s and 1980s were quite homogenous, while in the past two decades they have varied widely. Average construction time of the 10 units that started up in 2015—eight Chinese, one Korean and one Russian that took almost 31 years to complete—was 8.2 years, while it took an average of 6.2 years to connect four units—three Chinese and one South Korean—to the grid in the first half of 2016, 13.7 years when including the veteran Watts-Bar-2. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 29 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
Table 2: Reactor Construction Times 2006–2016 Construction Times (in years) – Startups Between 2006 and July 2016 Country Units Mean Time Min Max China 25 5.7 4.3 11.2 India 6 7.7 5.0 11.6 South Korea 5 5.3 4.0 7.2 Russia 4 28.8 25.3 32.0 Argentina 1 33.0 33.0 33.0 Iran 1 36.3 36.3 36.3 Japan 1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Pakistan 1 5.2 5.2 5.2 Romania 1 24.1 24.1 24.1 USA 1 43.5 43.5 43.5 Total 46 10.4 4 43.5 Sources: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2016 Figure 9: Average Annual Construction Times in the World 1954–1 July 2016 Years 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 © Mycle Schneider Consulting Average Annual Construction Times in the World 1954-1 July 2016 (by grid connection date) 4 2 0 Size proportional to number of reactors -2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Sources: MSC based on IAEA-PRIS, 2016 Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 30 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
Page 1 and 2: A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
Page 3 and 4: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
Page 5 and 6: EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
Page 7 and 8: TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
Page 9 and 10: Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
Page 11 and 12: Executive Summary and Conclusions K
Page 13 and 14: WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
Page 15 and 16: AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
Page 17 and 18: Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
Page 19 and 20: Introduction A major accident, like
Page 21 and 22: the past two decades, nuclear power
Page 23 and 24: There were three exceptions in 2015
Page 25 and 26: In the first half of 2016, three re
Page 27 and 28: The current world fleet has a total
Page 29: However, many of those projects (48
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
Page 35 and 36: large-scale new-build. Having asses
Page 37 and 38: Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
Page 39 and 40: timeframe are highly unlikely given
Page 41 and 42: The IAEA says that, “seven countr
Page 43 and 44: for four units equaled approximatel
Page 45 and 46: Over the past year, the design sele
Page 47 and 48: In Turkey, up to three projects are
Page 49 and 50: electricity generating company (EÜ
Page 51 and 52: However, Rosatom highlighted the
Page 53 and 54: eportedly considering “suspending
Page 55 and 56: start in 2020 and commercial operat
Page 57 and 58: floating reactors. 160 There is als
Page 59 and 60: nonetheless suggested that the proj
Page 61 and 62: Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdow
Page 63 and 64: in the U.S. in 2013 from US$5/MBTU
Page 65 and 66: decides not to proceed with Hinkley
Page 67 and 68: market capital for renewable energy
Page 69 and 70: apply across the whole European mar
Page 71 and 72: Supervision and Administration Comm
Page 73 and 74: export market to countries such as
Page 75 and 76: Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
Page 77 and 78: Sequence and Origin of the Accident
Page 79 and 80: a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
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Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
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In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Rep
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in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
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The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
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emove the fuel-containing masses (c
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around 4.4 m 3 /hour. 270 Therefore
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Current status of workers The gover
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The government is aggressively seek
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(Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
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Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
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contamination. In all parameters li
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However, the average thyroid dose i
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• The Global Energy Assessment 20
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decisions for the construction of n
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consecutive year, making up about 7
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US$43 billion and wind power was US
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Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
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hydro renewables power generation a
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Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
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The November 2013 edition of the In
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its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
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ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
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LTEP, released in December 2013, co
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The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
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units had received a license extens
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the capacity market auctions, the p
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subsidies already. First, Illinois
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Conservation (DEC) to deny the plan
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& 2 in Illinois, Pilgrim in Massach
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Pending Combined Operating License
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traditionally been sited, but also
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projects only after Sanmen-1 ‘suc
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geographically the nuclear plant th
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(US$6.6 billion), 546 to as low as
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work on site in India for six AP100
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in regulatory safety inspections re
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2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
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The options for how such targets wo
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seismic fault line at the site. The
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The IRRS team concluded that the NR
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meeting the new regulatory guidelin
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declared for the reactor and while
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However, observers saw a “dramati
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Despite the government’s commitme
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end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
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after its license had expired, but
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The following section provides a sh
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espectively over one month and two
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On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
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In parallel, Fortum Power has been
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levels. It now looks plausible that
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The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
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esulting in a loss of market share,
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for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
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and coal-fired generation fell back
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announced in April 2004 that his go
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nuclear energy, in the form of dire
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for the £16 billion (US$30 billion
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to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
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2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
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assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
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Hungary has only one nuclear power
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concluded that when making assumpti
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in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
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of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
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eactors at the site has been put ba
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Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
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Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
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Comments WNISR considers that the 1
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Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
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Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
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Plant Grid Connection Extension App
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Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
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Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
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GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
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PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
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Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
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Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
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Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
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15 Delayed again. A further delay o
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38 Delayed several times. This esti
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