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Table 6: Populations Exposed to Chernobyl Fallout: Average Effective Dose Population Number Average Dose in mSv Clean-up workers 530,000 120.0 Evacuees 130,000 31.0 Inhabitants of contaminated areas of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine 6,400,000 9.0 Inhabitants of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine 98,000,000 1.3 Inhabitants of Western Europe 500,000,000 0.3 Source: UNSCEAR 2008 Health Impacts The Chernobyl accident resulted in epidemics of thyroid cancer in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia starting after 1990. Over 6,000 thyroid cancers have arisen so far 247 and at least another 16,000 248 are expected to arise in future decades. It is notable that radiogenic thyroid cancers are still occurring among the Japanese bomb survivors nearly 60 years after their exposures. 249 In 2015, continuing increases in thyroid cancer cases were seen among adults in Belarus and Ukraine. The estimated thyroid cancer risks per gray (Gy) 250 in the most contaminated areas are high, with relative risks of 8.7 per Gy in Belarus and 8.0 per Gy in Ukraine. This translates into 770 percent to 700 percent increases respectively over the background rates in these countries. The raised incidence rates for adults are expected to peak in the near future in Belarus but will continue above the pre-accident rates for many years. Similarly, 500 percent increases were observed in leukemia risk in both Belarus and Ukraine. 251 These are extraordinarily high risk increases, perhaps the largest increases in risk ever measured after exposures to toxic substances. 247 Ibidem. 248 Ian Fairlie, “TORCH-2016 — An independent scientific evaluation of the health-related effects of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster”, 31 March 2016, see https://www.global2000.at/sites/global/files/GLOBAL_TORCH%202016_rz_WEB_KORR.pdf, accessed 5 June 2016. 249 Imaizumi M. et al., “Radiation Dose-Response Relationships for Thyroid Nodules and Autoimmune Thyroid Diseases in Hiroshima and Nagasaki Atomic Bomb Survivors 55-58 Years after Radiation Exposure”, The Journal of the American Medical Association, 1 March 2006, Vol. 295, No. 9, see http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=202461, accessed 5 June 2016. 250 The gray (Gy) is a derived unit of ionizing radiation dose in the International System of Units. It is defined as the absorption of one joule of radiation energy per kilogram of matter. It is generally used for large dose assessments. 251 Ivanov VK, Tsyb AF, et al., “Leukemia incidence in the Russian cohort of Chernobyl emergency workers”, Radiat Environ Biophys., May 2012. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 81 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Report on Chernobyl) estimated that 40,000 fatal cancers will arise over the next 50 years from Chernobyl, about eight times greater than the expected number of fatal cancers from arising in future from Fukushima. TORCH 2016 revealed new evidence of increased thyroid cancer cases in Austria, similar to previous indicative studies of increased thyroid cancers in the U.K., Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. TORCH 2016 estimated that between eight and 40 percent of increased thyroid cancer cases after 1986 in Austria may be due to Chernobyl. After thirty years, sufficient time has elapsed for dose registries to observe statistically significant increases in other solid cancers including breast, colon, lung and kidney cancers. However, their relative risks, 20 percent to 50 percent per Gy, are about an order of magnitude lower than those observed for thyroid cancer and leukemia. The new evidence in TORCH 2016 indicates increased incidences of cardiovascular effects, stroke, mental health effects, birth defects and various other radiogenic effects in the most affected countries. Recent studies provide strong evidence of decreased health indicators among children living in contaminated areas in Belarus and Ukraine, including • impaired lung function and increased breathing difficulties 252 • lowered blood counts 253 • high levels of anemias and colds 254 and • raised levels of immunoglobulins 255 252 Svendsen E.R., Kolpakov I.E., et al., “Reduced Lung Function in Children Associated with Caesium 137 Body Burden”, July 2015, Annals of the American Thoracic Society, Vol. 12, No. 7, pp 1050-1057, see http://www.atsjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1513/AnnalsATS.201409-432OC?journalCode=annalsats, accessed 6 June 2016. 253 Lindgren A, Eugenia Stepanova, et al., “Individual whole-body concentration of 137Caesium is associated with decreased blood counts in children in the Chernobyl-contaminated areas, Ukraine, 2008-2010”, Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology, May/June 2015. 254 McMahon D.M., Vdovenko V., et al., “Dietary supplementation with radionuclide free food improves children's health following community exposure to 137 Caesium: a prospective study”, Environmental Health, 22 December 2015, see https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12940-015-0084-x, accessed 6 June 2016. 255 McMahon D.M., Vdovenko V.Y., et al., “Effects of long-term low-level radiation exposure after the Chernobyl catastrophe on immunoglobulins in children residing in contaminated areas: prospective and cross-sectional studies”, Environmental Health, 10 May 2014, see https://ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1476-069X-13-36, accessed 6 June 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 82 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
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A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
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EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
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TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
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Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
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Executive Summary and Conclusions K
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WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
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AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
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Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
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Introduction A major accident, like
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the past two decades, nuclear power
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There were three exceptions in 2015
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In the first half of 2016, three re
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The current world fleet has a total
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However, many of those projects (48
Page 31 and 32: Table 2: Reactor Construction Times
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
Page 35 and 36: large-scale new-build. Having asses
Page 37 and 38: Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
Page 39 and 40: timeframe are highly unlikely given
Page 41 and 42: The IAEA says that, “seven countr
Page 43 and 44: for four units equaled approximatel
Page 45 and 46: Over the past year, the design sele
Page 47 and 48: In Turkey, up to three projects are
Page 49 and 50: electricity generating company (EÜ
Page 51 and 52: However, Rosatom highlighted the
Page 53 and 54: eportedly considering “suspending
Page 55 and 56: start in 2020 and commercial operat
Page 57 and 58: floating reactors. 160 There is als
Page 59 and 60: nonetheless suggested that the proj
Page 61 and 62: Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdow
Page 63 and 64: in the U.S. in 2013 from US$5/MBTU
Page 65 and 66: decides not to proceed with Hinkley
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Page 69 and 70: apply across the whole European mar
Page 71 and 72: Supervision and Administration Comm
Page 73 and 74: export market to countries such as
Page 75 and 76: Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
Page 77 and 78: Sequence and Origin of the Accident
Page 79 and 80: a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
Page 81: Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
Page 85 and 86: in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
Page 87 and 88: The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
Page 89 and 90: emove the fuel-containing masses (c
Page 91 and 92: around 4.4 m 3 /hour. 270 Therefore
Page 93 and 94: Current status of workers The gover
Page 95 and 96: The government is aggressively seek
Page 97 and 98: (Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
Page 99 and 100: Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
Page 101 and 102: contamination. In all parameters li
Page 103 and 104: However, the average thyroid dose i
Page 105 and 106: • The Global Energy Assessment 20
Page 107 and 108: decisions for the construction of n
Page 109 and 110: consecutive year, making up about 7
Page 111 and 112: US$43 billion and wind power was US
Page 113 and 114: Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
Page 115 and 116: hydro renewables power generation a
Page 117 and 118: Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
Page 119 and 120: The November 2013 edition of the In
Page 121 and 122: its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
Page 123 and 124: ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
Page 125 and 126: LTEP, released in December 2013, co
Page 127 and 128: The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
Page 129 and 130: units had received a license extens
Page 131 and 132: the capacity market auctions, the p
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subsidies already. First, Illinois
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Conservation (DEC) to deny the plan
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& 2 in Illinois, Pilgrim in Massach
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Pending Combined Operating License
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traditionally been sited, but also
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projects only after Sanmen-1 ‘suc
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geographically the nuclear plant th
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(US$6.6 billion), 546 to as low as
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work on site in India for six AP100
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in regulatory safety inspections re
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2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
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The options for how such targets wo
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seismic fault line at the site. The
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The IRRS team concluded that the NR
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meeting the new regulatory guidelin
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declared for the reactor and while
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However, observers saw a “dramati
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Despite the government’s commitme
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end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
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after its license had expired, but
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The following section provides a sh
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espectively over one month and two
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On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
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In parallel, Fortum Power has been
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levels. It now looks plausible that
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The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
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esulting in a loss of market share,
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for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
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and coal-fired generation fell back
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announced in April 2004 that his go
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nuclear energy, in the form of dire
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for the £16 billion (US$30 billion
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to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
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2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
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assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
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Hungary has only one nuclear power
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concluded that when making assumpti
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in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
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of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
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eactors at the site has been put ba
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Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
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Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
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Comments WNISR considers that the 1
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Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
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Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
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Plant Grid Connection Extension App
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Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
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Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
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GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
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PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
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Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
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Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
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Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
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15 Delayed again. A further delay o
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38 Delayed several times. This esti
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