CONSULTING

Table 6: Populations Exposed to Chernobyl Fallout: Average Effective Dose
Population
Number
Average Dose
in mSv
Clean-up workers 530,000 120.0
Evacuees 130,000 31.0
Inhabitants of contaminated areas of
Belarus, Russia and Ukraine
6,400,000 9.0
Inhabitants of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine 98,000,000 1.3
Inhabitants of Western Europe 500,000,000 0.3
Source: UNSCEAR 2008
Health Impacts
The Chernobyl accident resulted in epidemics of thyroid cancer in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia
starting after 1990. Over 6,000 thyroid cancers have arisen so far 247 and at least another 16,000 248
are expected to arise in future decades. It is notable that radiogenic thyroid cancers are still
occurring among the Japanese bomb survivors nearly 60 years after their exposures. 249
In 2015, continuing increases in thyroid cancer cases were seen among adults in Belarus and
Ukraine. The estimated thyroid cancer risks per gray (Gy) 250 in the most contaminated areas are
high, with relative risks of 8.7 per Gy in Belarus and 8.0 per Gy in Ukraine. This translates into
770 percent to 700 percent increases respectively over the background rates in these countries.
The raised incidence rates for adults are expected to peak in the near future in Belarus but will
continue above the pre-accident rates for many years. Similarly, 500 percent increases were
observed in leukemia risk in both Belarus and Ukraine. 251 These are extraordinarily high risk
increases, perhaps the largest increases in risk ever measured after exposures to toxic substances.
247 Ibidem.
248 Ian Fairlie, “TORCH-2016 — An independent scientific evaluation of the health-related effects of the
Chernobyl nuclear disaster”, 31 March 2016, see
https://www.global2000.at/sites/global/files/GLOBAL_TORCH%202016_rz_WEB_KORR.pdf, accessed 5 June 2016.
249 Imaizumi M. et al., “Radiation Dose-Response Relationships for Thyroid Nodules and Autoimmune
Thyroid Diseases in Hiroshima and Nagasaki Atomic Bomb Survivors 55-58 Years after Radiation
Exposure”, The Journal of the American Medical Association, 1 March 2006, Vol. 295, No. 9, see
http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=202461, accessed 5 June 2016.
250 The gray (Gy) is a derived unit of ionizing radiation dose in the International System of Units. It is
defined as the absorption of one joule of radiation energy per kilogram of matter. It is generally used for
large dose assessments.
251 Ivanov VK, Tsyb AF, et al., “Leukemia incidence in the Russian cohort of Chernobyl emergency workers”,
Radiat Environ Biophys., May 2012.
Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 81 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016