CONSULTING

An overwhelming majority of participants from government, banking sector, academia and
independent expert community concluded during an NGO-convened March 2016 “Technical
Workshop on the Economics of Nuclear Energy” in Johannesburg that there was no viable
financing scheme for newbuild in sight. 370 It is therefore difficult to conceive that the nuclear
newbuild program would fit into South Africa’s strained budget for many years to come.
The five-year target as outlined in the Strategic Plan, is to have completed technology and vendor
selection, the procurement process and to have begun construction of the first unit by 2020; with
connection of the first unit to the grid by 2023 and the second one in 2024. This appears to be an
overly ambitious timeline, by any standards.
The Americas
Argentina operates three nuclear reactors that in 2015 provided 6.5 TWh (a 24 percent
increase over 2014, with Atucha-2 reaching 100 percent power in February 2015) or 4.8 percent
of the country’s electricity (down from a maximum of 19.8 percent in 1990).
Historically Argentina was one of the countries that embarked on an ambiguous nuclear program,
officially for civil purposes but backed by a strong military lobby. Nevertheless, the operating
nuclear plants were supplied by foreign reactor builders: Atucha-1, which started operation in
1974, was supplied by Siemens, and the CANDU (CANadian Deuterium Uranium) type reactor at
Embalse was supplied by the Canadian Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL). After close to
30 years of operation, the Embalse plant was shut down at the end of 2015 for major overhaul,
including the replacement of hundreds of pressure tubes, to enable it to operate for up to 30 more
years. Reportedly, contracts worth US$440 million were signed in August 2011 and at the time,
the work was expected to start by November 2013. 371 According to some reports, the
refurbishment is planned to take about two years, with restart scheduled for March 2018. 372
However, Nuclear Engineering International estimated the project could take up to five years and
cost about US$1.5 billion, warning: “It must be noted, however, that the various Candu
refurbishment projects in Canada (Bruce, Pickering and New Brunswick) have tended to overrun
on both time and budget.” 373
Atucha-2 had been ordered in 1979 and was officially listed as “under construction” since 1981.
Finally, on 3 June 2014, the first criticality of the reactor was announced and grid connection was
established on 27 June 2014. It took until 19 February 2015 for the unit to reach 100 percent of
370 A summary of the workshop with links to the presentations can be found at Henrich Böll Foundation,
Southern Africa, “Workshop Report: The Economics of Nuclear Energy in South Africa”, 9 May 2016, see
https://za.boell.org/2016/05/09/workshop-report-economics-nuclear-energy-south-africa, accessed
1 July 2016.
371 Research and Markets, “Nuclear Power Market in Argentina”, May 2012.
372 SCN Lavalin, “Embalse Nuclear Generating Station Life Extension”, Undated, see
http://www.snclavalin.com/en/embalse-nuclear-generating-station-life-extension, accessed 5 June 2016.
373 NEI, “Argentina—a possible return to new nuclear?”, 15 October 2013, see
http://www.neimagazine.com/opinion/opinionargentina-a-possible-return-to-new-nuclear/, accessed
16 June 2016.
Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 119 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016