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Source Term There are various estimates of the amounts of radioactivity emitted to air, the so-called air source term, from Chernobyl and Fukushima. Table 11 provides estimates for the main nuclides released according to Fairlie 327 , Imanaka et al. 328 and UNSCEAR 329 . Table 11 : Comparison of Atmospheric Releases from Nuclear Accidents (in PBq) 330 Accidents Authors I-131 Cs-137 Xe-133 Chernobyl Imanaka et al. 2015 1,760 85 6,500 UNSCEAR 2008/11 1,700 86 6,500 Fukushima Imanaka et al 2015 120 8.8 7,300 UNSCEAR 2008/11 100-500 6-20 14,000 The key points here are: • Broad agreement about source terms on Cs-137 and Xe-133. Wide range of I-131 estimates by UNSCEAR at Fukushima. • Release estimates for Chernobyl are much larger than those for Fukushima, about ten times greater for Cs-137 and I-131 which are the main volatile nuclides. For the noble inert gas Xe- 133, the situation is reversed, as releases from Fukushima were about double those from Chernobyl. The main reason is that at Chernobyl one reactor exploded whereas at Fukushima, meltdowns occurred at three units, with each reactor releasing its entire gaseous inventory. Radiation Exposures The calculation of radiation exposure is based on complex modelling of exposure paths (external, internal, air, food path, etc.), as the actual doses delivered to the body have been measured only partially for a small number of people. Therefore, the exposure numbers indicated throughout this chapter have to be considered with circumspection. Also, radiation risks between a fetus and a grown-up adult vary by two orders of magnitude, and risks show high variability between individuals. indicates that, in the highest contaminated areas resulting from Chernobyl, the average dose was 9 mSv in the first year after the accident. This is similar to the average dose received in the most contaminated area of Japan in Fukushima prefecture. 327 Ian Fairlie, “TORCH-2016”, 31 March 2016, see https://www.global2000.at/sites/global/files/GLOBAL_TORCH%202016_rz_WEB_KORR.pdf, accessed 4 June 2016. 328 Imanaka T. et al.,“Comparison of the accident process, radioactivity release and ground contamination between Chernobyl and Fukushima-1”, Journal of Radiation Research, 14 November 2015, see http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4732534/, accessed 5 June 2016. 329 UNSCEAR, “2008 Report to the General Assembly; Annex D Health Effects Due to the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident”, United Nations, New York. Note: Although UNSCEAR’s publication date was stated as 2008, the report was not released until 2011. 330 1 petabecquerel (PBq) = 10 15 becquerels Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 101 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
However, the average thyroid dose in Belarus and Ukraine was about 20 times greater than in Fukushima prefecture. This is because the I-131 release was about 10 to 12 times greater at Chernobyl than Fukushima and because an estimated (~80 percent) of the plumes at Fukushima were blown out to sea. 331 Table 12: Average Doses in Fukushima and Chernobyl (Highest Contaminated Areas) Fukushima Prefecture Highly Contaminated Areas of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine Europe / Japan Average Dose 10 mSv 9 mSv ~1 Average Thyroid Dose 35 mGy 332 560 333 -640 334 mGy (range 50 to 5,000 mGy) 16 - 18 x Source: UNSCEAR 2008, 2013 As regards collective dose, the UNSCEAR 2013 report states: The collective effective dose to the population of Japan due to a lifetime exposure following the Fukushima accident is approximately 10-15 percent of the corresponding value for European populations exposed to radiation following the Chernobyl accident. Correspondingly, the collective absorbed dose to the thyroid was approximately 5 percent of that due to the Chernobyl accident. This is shown in tabular form in Table 13. Table 13 : Collective Doses from Fukushima and Chernobyl Accidents (over 80 years) Europe Japan Factor Difference Collective Dose 320,000-480,000 Person-Sv 48,000 Person-Sv x 7-10 Collective Dose to Thyroid 2,240,000 Person-Gy 112,000 Person-Gy x 20 Source: UNSCEAR 2008, 2013 331 UNSCEAR, “UNSCEAR 2013 Report — Volume I, Report to the General Assembly ; Scientific Annex A: Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident after 2011 great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami”, United Nations, April 2014, see http://www.unscear.org/docs/reports/2013/13- 85418_Report_2013_Annex_A.pdf, accessed 5 June 2016. 332 Le Gray is a unit of collective dose for specific organ exposures. 333 Zablotska L.B., Ron E., et al., “Thyroid cancer risk in Belarus among children and adolescents exposed to radioiodine after the Chornobyl accident”, British Journal of Cancer, 2011, Edition n.104, published online 23 November 2010, see http://www.nature.com/bjc/journal/v104/n1/full/6605967a.html, accessed 5 June 2016. 334 Likhtarov I., Kovgan L., et al., “Thyroid cancer study among Ukrainian children exposed to radiation after the Chornobyl accident: Improved estimates of the thyroid doses to the cohort members”, Health Phys., March 2014, see http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4160663/, accessed 5 June 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 102 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
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A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
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EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
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TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
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Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
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Executive Summary and Conclusions K
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WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
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AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
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Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
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Introduction A major accident, like
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the past two decades, nuclear power
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There were three exceptions in 2015
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In the first half of 2016, three re
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The current world fleet has a total
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However, many of those projects (48
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Table 2: Reactor Construction Times
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Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
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large-scale new-build. Having asses
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Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
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timeframe are highly unlikely given
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The IAEA says that, “seven countr
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for four units equaled approximatel
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Over the past year, the design sele
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In Turkey, up to three projects are
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electricity generating company (EÜ
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Page 53 and 54: eportedly considering “suspending
Page 55 and 56: start in 2020 and commercial operat
Page 57 and 58: floating reactors. 160 There is als
Page 59 and 60: nonetheless suggested that the proj
Page 61 and 62: Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdow
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Page 65 and 66: decides not to proceed with Hinkley
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Page 75 and 76: Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
Page 77 and 78: Sequence and Origin of the Accident
Page 79 and 80: a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
Page 81 and 82: Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
Page 83 and 84: In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Rep
Page 85 and 86: in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
Page 87 and 88: The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
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Page 93 and 94: Current status of workers The gover
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Page 97 and 98: (Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
Page 99 and 100: Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
Page 101: contamination. In all parameters li
Page 105 and 106: • The Global Energy Assessment 20
Page 107 and 108: decisions for the construction of n
Page 109 and 110: consecutive year, making up about 7
Page 111 and 112: US$43 billion and wind power was US
Page 113 and 114: Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
Page 115 and 116: hydro renewables power generation a
Page 117 and 118: Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
Page 119 and 120: The November 2013 edition of the In
Page 121 and 122: its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
Page 123 and 124: ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
Page 125 and 126: LTEP, released in December 2013, co
Page 127 and 128: The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
Page 129 and 130: units had received a license extens
Page 131 and 132: the capacity market auctions, the p
Page 133 and 134: subsidies already. First, Illinois
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Page 141 and 142: traditionally been sited, but also
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2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
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The options for how such targets wo
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seismic fault line at the site. The
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The IRRS team concluded that the NR
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meeting the new regulatory guidelin
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declared for the reactor and while
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However, observers saw a “dramati
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Despite the government’s commitme
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end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
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after its license had expired, but
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The following section provides a sh
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espectively over one month and two
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On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
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In parallel, Fortum Power has been
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levels. It now looks plausible that
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The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
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esulting in a loss of market share,
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for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
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and coal-fired generation fell back
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announced in April 2004 that his go
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nuclear energy, in the form of dire
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for the £16 billion (US$30 billion
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to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
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2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
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assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
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Hungary has only one nuclear power
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concluded that when making assumpti
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in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
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of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
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eactors at the site has been put ba
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Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
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Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
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Comments WNISR considers that the 1
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Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
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Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
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Plant Grid Connection Extension App
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Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
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Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
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GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
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PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
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Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
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Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
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Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
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15 Delayed again. A further delay o
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38 Delayed several times. This esti
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