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As a result, the number of reactors in operation will stagnate at best but will more likely decline over the coming years unless lifetime extensions beyond 40 years become widespread. Such generalized lifetime extensions are, however, even less likely after Fukushima. Also, soaring maintenance and upgrading costs, as well as decreasing system costs of nuclear power’s main competitors, create an economic environment with sharply decreasing bulk electricity prices that leads to the situation of an increasing number of nuclear plants “at risk” of early closures, notably in the U.S., Sweden and Germany, as discussed below. Developments in Asia, and particularly in China, do not fundamentally change the global picture. Reported figures for China’s 2020 target for installed nuclear capacity have fluctuated between 40 GW and 120 GW in the past. The freeze of construction initiation for almost two years and new siting authorizations for four years has reduced Chinese ambitions. In addition, the average construction time for the 25 units started up in China over the past decade was 5.7 years. At present, 21 units with about 21.5 GW are under construction and scheduled to be connected by 2020, which would bring the total to 51 GW, far short of the current 58 GW target (see China Focus). The continuing controversy about whether new reactors should be allowed not only at coastal but also inland sites, is restricting the number of suitable sites immediately available. As usual, we have also modeled a scenario in which all currently licensed lifetime extensions and license renewals (mainly in the United States) are maintained and all construction sites are completed. For all other units we have maintained a 40-year lifetime projection, unless a firm earlier or later shutdown date has been announced. By 2020, the net number of operating reactors would have increased by only two (down from an increase of eight in the WNISR2014 projection) and the installed capacity would grow by 17 GW (down from an increase of 25 GW in the WNISR2014 projection). This decline reflects the recent early closure announcements of units that, for economic reasons, will not operate up to the end of their licensed operational lifetime. A continuation of this trend can be expected over the coming years. In the following decade to 2030, still 163 new reactors (144.5 GW) would have to start up to replace shutdowns. In other words, the overall pattern of decline would hardly be altered: it would merely be delayed by some years (see Figure 17, Figure 18 and the cumulated effect in Figure 19). Potential Newcomer Countries At time of the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, in 1997, the installed capacity of nuclear power in the world was 344 GW, and by the time of the signing of the Paris agreement, at the end of 2015, this had risen to 378 GW (including 35.5 in LTO). This equates to a 10 percent increase in capacity with an associated increase in electricity production of 178TWh per year, an approximately 8 percent increase in output. However, due to rising global demand over the same time period nuclear contribution to global commercial electricity generation has fallen from 17.5 percent to below 11 percent. Therefore, despite the promotion of nuclear power as a technology to address climate change over the past two decades its contribution is diminishing. If nuclear is to make a difference on the global level, it will need to revise this trend and significantly increase its production both within its current markets and expand into new countries. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 39 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
The IAEA says that, “seven countries have moved forward in actively developing nuclear programs and two countries (Belarus and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)) have already started constructing their first NPP [Nuclear Power Plant].” 38 The source of this statement is not original IAEA research, but the World Nuclear Association (WNA), whose aim is to promote and represent the nuclear industry. WNA places the seven countries cited by the IAEA in two categories 39 : • Contracts signed, legal and regulatory infrastructure well-developed or developing: Bangladesh, Lithuania, Turkey and Vietnam; • Committed plans, legal and regulatory infrastructure developing: Jordan, Poland and Egypt. WNA, also claims that there are an additional 11 countries in which nuclear power is planned, which includes, those with “well-developed plans”, Chile, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Saudi Arabia and those “developing plans” including, Israel, Kenya, Laos, Malaysia, Morocco, and Nigeria. They further list another 20 countries in which nuclear is a “serious policy option”. 40 The following section reviews the development of nuclear power in those countries in which WNA believes that there are at least “well-developed plans” for new nuclear. Table 3 provides an overview per category and country. Under Construction Construction started in November 2013 at Belarus’s first nuclear reactor at the Ostrovets power plant, also called Belarusian-1. Construction of a second 1200 MWe AES-2006 reactor started in June 2014. In November 2011, the two governments agreed that Russia would lend up to US$10 billion for 25 years to finance 90 percent of the contract between Atomstroyexport and the Belarus Directorate for Nuclear Power Plant Construction. In July 2012, the contract was signed for the construction of the two reactors for an estimated cost of US$10 billion, including US$3 billion for new infrastructure to accommodate the remoteness of Ostrovets in northern Belarus. 41 The project assumes the supply of all fuel and repatriation of spent fuel for the life of the plant. The fuel is to be reprocessed and the separated wastes returned to Belarus. In August 2011, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of Belarus stated that the first unit would be commissioned in 2016 and the second one in 2018. 42 However, these dates were revised, and when construction started, it was stated that the reactors will not be completed until 2018 and 2020. 43 In May 2016, the startup months were reported as November 2018 and 38 IAEA, “Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2015”, Vienna, September 2015, see wwwpub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/CCANP2015Web-78834554.pdf, accessed 1 July 2016. 39 WNA, “Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries”, Updated February 2016, see http://www.worldnuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/emerging-nuclear-energy-countries.aspx, accessed 1 April 2016. 40 Namibia, Mongolia, Philippines, Singapore, Albania, Serbia, Croatia, Estonia & Latvia, Libya, Algeria, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Syria, Qatar, Sudan, Venezuela, Bolivia, Peru. 41 NIW, “Belarus, Aided by Russia and Broke, Europe’s Last Dictatorship Proceeds With NPP”, 28 September 2012. 42 V.V. Kulik, “Letter to the European Commission”, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus, dated 9 August 2011. 43 WNN, “Ostrovets plant meets construction safety rules”, World Nuclear News, 7 November 2014, see http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Ostrovets-plant-meets-construction-safety-rules-07111401.html, accessed 1 July 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 40 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
Page 1 and 2: A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
Page 3 and 4: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
Page 5 and 6: EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
Page 7 and 8: TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
Page 9 and 10: Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
Page 11 and 12: Executive Summary and Conclusions K
Page 13 and 14: WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
Page 15 and 16: AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
Page 17 and 18: Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
Page 19 and 20: Introduction A major accident, like
Page 21 and 22: the past two decades, nuclear power
Page 23 and 24: There were three exceptions in 2015
Page 25 and 26: In the first half of 2016, three re
Page 27 and 28: The current world fleet has a total
Page 29 and 30: However, many of those projects (48
Page 31 and 32: Table 2: Reactor Construction Times
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
Page 35 and 36: large-scale new-build. Having asses
Page 37 and 38: Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
Page 39: timeframe are highly unlikely given
Page 43 and 44: for four units equaled approximatel
Page 45 and 46: Over the past year, the design sele
Page 47 and 48: In Turkey, up to three projects are
Page 49 and 50: electricity generating company (EÜ
Page 51 and 52: However, Rosatom highlighted the
Page 53 and 54: eportedly considering “suspending
Page 55 and 56: start in 2020 and commercial operat
Page 57 and 58: floating reactors. 160 There is als
Page 59 and 60: nonetheless suggested that the proj
Page 61 and 62: Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdow
Page 63 and 64: in the U.S. in 2013 from US$5/MBTU
Page 65 and 66: decides not to proceed with Hinkley
Page 67 and 68: market capital for renewable energy
Page 69 and 70: apply across the whole European mar
Page 71 and 72: Supervision and Administration Comm
Page 73 and 74: export market to countries such as
Page 75 and 76: Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
Page 77 and 78: Sequence and Origin of the Accident
Page 79 and 80: a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
Page 81 and 82: Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
Page 83 and 84: In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Rep
Page 85 and 86: in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
Page 87 and 88: The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
Page 89 and 90: emove the fuel-containing masses (c
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around 4.4 m 3 /hour. 270 Therefore
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Current status of workers The gover
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The government is aggressively seek
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(Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
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Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
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contamination. In all parameters li
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However, the average thyroid dose i
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• The Global Energy Assessment 20
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decisions for the construction of n
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consecutive year, making up about 7
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US$43 billion and wind power was US
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Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
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hydro renewables power generation a
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Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
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The November 2013 edition of the In
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its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
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ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
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LTEP, released in December 2013, co
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The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
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units had received a license extens
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the capacity market auctions, the p
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subsidies already. First, Illinois
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Conservation (DEC) to deny the plan
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& 2 in Illinois, Pilgrim in Massach
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Pending Combined Operating License
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traditionally been sited, but also
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projects only after Sanmen-1 ‘suc
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geographically the nuclear plant th
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(US$6.6 billion), 546 to as low as
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work on site in India for six AP100
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in regulatory safety inspections re
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2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
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The options for how such targets wo
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seismic fault line at the site. The
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The IRRS team concluded that the NR
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meeting the new regulatory guidelin
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declared for the reactor and while
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However, observers saw a “dramati
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Despite the government’s commitme
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end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
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after its license had expired, but
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The following section provides a sh
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espectively over one month and two
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On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
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In parallel, Fortum Power has been
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levels. It now looks plausible that
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The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
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esulting in a loss of market share,
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for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
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and coal-fired generation fell back
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announced in April 2004 that his go
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nuclear energy, in the form of dire
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for the £16 billion (US$30 billion
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to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
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2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
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assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
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Hungary has only one nuclear power
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concluded that when making assumpti
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in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
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of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
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eactors at the site has been put ba
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Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
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Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
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Comments WNISR considers that the 1
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Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
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Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
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Plant Grid Connection Extension App
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Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
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Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
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GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
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PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
Page 233 and 234:
Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
Page 235 and 236:
Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
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Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
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15 Delayed again. A further delay o
Page 241:
38 Delayed several times. This esti
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