CONSULTING

Foreword
by Tomas Kåberger 1
The World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) is the best compilation of data, trends and facts
about the nuclear industry available. This is all the more impressive considering the competition
from resource-rich commercial or intergovernmental institutions. It is free from the political
constraints, e. g. those leading the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the false claim
there are more than 40 reactors operating in Japan. Nor does it suffer from the anti-nuclear
exaggerations or pro-nuclear enthusiasm so often tainting descriptions of this industry’s status.
This year, special chapters on Chernobyl and Fukushima confirm that nuclear accidents bear not
only significant human and environmental but also economic risks. These, however, are risks the
nuclear industry has been sheltered from by political decisions limiting their liability.
The WNISR this year is more about a risk the industry will not easily be protected from: The
economic and financial risks from nuclear power being irreversibly out-competed by renewable
power.
The year 2015 seems to be the best year for the nuclear industry in the last quarter of a century. A
record 10 new reactors with a total capacity of over 9 GW were put into operation. This was less
than new solar and less than wind capacity, which increased five and six times as much respectively.
In actual electricity produced, nuclear increased by 31 TWh, while fossil fuels based electricity
generation decreased. The main reason why fossil fuels decreased was the expansion in renewable
power generation, an increase of more than 250 TWh compared to 2014, seven times more than
the modest nuclear increase.
The development of installations and generation is a result of renewable energy cost reductions. As
we may also read in this report, nuclear construction is not only costly, it is often more costly, and
requires more time, than envisioned when investment decisions were taken. Solar and wind, on the
other hand, have come down in price to an extent that new wind and solar are often providing new
generation that is clearly cheaper than new nuclear power.
Even more challenging to the nuclear industry is the way renewables are bringing down electricity
prices in mature industrial countries to the extent that an increasing number of reactors operate
with economic losses despite producing electricity as planned.
But a foreword is not meant to be another summary. My appreciation of the report is already clearly
stated. Let me use the final paragraphs on what implications may follow from the facts laid out in
this report:
First: A nuclear industry under economic stress may become an even more dangerous industry.
Owners do what they can to reduce operating costs to avoid making economic loss. Reduce staff,
reduce maintenance, and reduce any monitoring and inspection that may be avoided. While a stated
ambition of “safety first” and demands of safety authorities will be heard, the conflict is always
there and reduced margins of safety may prove to be mistakes.
1 Tomas Kåberger is Professor of Industrial Energy Policy at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden
and Executive Board Chairman of the Renewable Energy Institute in Japan.
Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 8 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016