CONSULTING

The options for how such targets would be attained are of course dependent upon multiple
factors, in particular installed capacity per reactor. Taking into account the major uncertainties,
one scenario for a 10 percent target would require the operation of 13 of the reactors currently
under NRA review, including start up and operation of the two Advanced Boiling Water Reactors
(ABWR) under construction at Shimane and Ohma. A 15 percent target would require either the
operation of all 26 reactors that have applied to the NRA for review, and therefore include the
operation of reactors beyond their 40-year lifetime; or a combination of 40-year plus reactors
together with additional reactors that have yet to apply for review. Specifically, the uncertainties
in the prospects for reactor restart mean that, no matter what target percentage is set, the
Japanese Government and utilities simply do not know, how many of Japan’s 36 remaining
reactors will be restarted, nor when.
People often wonder, how Japan could handle the loss of close to 30 percent of the electricity
generating capacity following the 3/11 events without any major blackouts. As Figure 43
illustrates, there were two key components, savings/energy efficiency and increased fossil fuel
use. Compared to 2010, consumption dropped nationwide by 5 percent in 2011. One remarkable
aspect is that consumption did not pick up again, on the contrary, continued to fall: In 2015,
national power consumption was 12 percent below the 2010 level. The fuel shift between 2010
and 2015 shows an increase of 5 percentage points for both, natural gas and coal, while the oil
consumption, after a brief surge, fell back to its pre-3/11 levels. Renewables pick up only slowly
and contribute now about 5 percent to the mix compared to 1 percent in 2010.
The 2014 Strategic Energy Plan maintained the long-standing government policy of promoting
spent nuclear fuel reprocessing and plutonium mixed oxide fuel (MOX) use in commercial
reactors. In a further signal of tensions and challenges within Japan’s nuclear industry, the
Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC), which represents the nation’s ten nuclear power
utilities, announced on 20 November 2016 the indefinite postponement of a target date for
loading plutonium Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel into 16-18 light water reactors. 601 The plans to use
MOX fuel have for the past two decades been the justification used for Japan’s accumulation of
plutonium through reprocessing. The Takahama-3 reactor, operated between 29 January and
10 March with MOX fuel, and the MOX-fueled reactor Takahama-4, are now shutdown. The first
reactor to resume operation with MOX fuel will likely be Ikata-3 scheduled for summer 2016. The
22 nd delay in beginning the commercial operation of the Rokkasho-mura reprocessing plant,
intended to produce plutonium for use in MOX fuel, was announced in November 2015. 602
Originally scheduled to begin operation in 1997, construction of the plant began in 1993. 603
601 NW, “Japan postpones plans to use MOX fuel”, 26 November 2015.
602 JNFL, “Extraordinary Press Conference—Schedule Change of Completion of Rokkasho Reprocessing
Plant and MOX Fuel Fabrication Plant”, 16 November 2015, see http://www.jnfl.co.jp/en/release/presidenttalk/2015/20151116.html,
accessed 17 June 2016.
603 Shaun Burnie, Frank Barnaby, et al., “Nuclear Proliferation in Plain Sight: Japan’s Plutonium Fuel Cycle–
A Technical and Economic Failure But a Strategic Success”, The Asia-Pacific Journal, Volume 14, Issue 5,
1 March 2016, see http://apjjf.org/-Shaun-Burnie--Frank-Barnaby--Tom-Clements--Aileen-Mioko-Smith--
Kendra-Ulrich/4860/article.pdf, accessed 17 June 2016.
Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 154 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016