CONSULTING

meeting the new regulatory guidelines. 633 On 14 April 2016 citizens filed an administrative
lawsuit in Nagoya District Court, against the NRA approval of extending operation of the
Takahama reactors. 634 Kansai Electric does not expect the two Takahama units to resume
operations before November 2019, at the earliest, because extensive retrofits will need to be
implemented before restarting them.
Kansai Electric already opted to decommission the Mihama-1 and -2 reactors in 2015, and there
are doubts that it will proceed with plans to operate Mihama-3. In March 2016, Kansai Electric
disclosed that the current estimate for retrofit of Mihama-3 to bring it into compliance with NRA
regulations is ¥270 billion (US$2.4 billion). 635 A significant part of this cost relates to seismic
resistance measures required to meet the higher Design Basis Ground Motion. While the NRA is
expected to approve Mihama-3 as in compliance with the revised guidelines, it remains unclear
whether Kansai Electric will meet the 30 November 2016 deadline for approval of a 20-year
extension, which requires assessing the aging plant. As with the decision to shut down the Ikata-1
reactor, there is every likelihood that Kansai Electric will determine that it makes no economic
sense to attempt a restart of Mihama-3 given the investment costs required.
Restart Prospects
As of 1 July 2016, 36 commercial reactors in Japan remain in Long Term Outage, with 19 reactors
under review for restart by the NRA. Restart of the Ikata-3 reactor is planned for summer 2016,
following completion of NRA pre-operating inspections. That will bring to three the number of
operating reactors in Japan. Whether or not the Takahama-3 and 4 reactors are restarted before
the end of 2016 is dependent upon the appeal proceedings initiated by Kansai Electric against the
Otsu court ruling. The next in line for possible restart are the Genkai-3 and 4 reactors owned by
Kyushu Electric, and Tomari-3 owned by Hokkaido Electric Power Company. It is unlikely that any
of these will resume operation before 2017, and failure to overturn the legal decision on
Takahama-3 and 4, will mean as few as three reactors will be operating by December 2016.
At the same time, pressure to resume operations to generate electricity and income is clearly
mounting. Despite the setbacks, the Abe government remains committed to the earliest possible
restart of reactors. However, outside the NRA process, there are important external factors that
will continue to determine how many nuclear reactors will eventually resume operations. These
include:
• Continuation of citizen-led lawsuits, including injunctions against restart;
• Economic factors, including a cost-benefit analysis by the utilities on the implications of restart
or decommissioning;
633 JAIF, “NRA Approves Extensions of Operating Periods to 60 Years for Takahama-1 and -2, the First for
Aging Reactors”, 22 June 2016, see http://www.jaif.or.jp/en/nra-approves-extensions-of-operating-periodsto-60-years-for-takahama-1-and-2-the-first-for-aging-reactors/,
accessed 24 June 2016.
634 JAIF, “Anti-nuclear Groups Sue in Nagoya District Court to Block Extended Lifetime for Takahama
Units 1&2”, 18 April 2016, see http://www.jaif.or.jp/en/nuclear-opponents-sue-in-nagoya-district-court-toblock-extended-lifetime-for-takahama-units-12/,
accessed 20 May 2016.
635 Nikkei Online, “KEPCO: Nuclear Restart Plans Upset, Mihama No. 3 Closure a Possibility”,
19 March 2016, (in Japanese), see http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLZO98651920Y6A310C1TI1000/,
accessed 20 May 2016.
Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 160 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016