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“encourages the use of alternative energy sources in Kazakhstan, reduces emissions, and enhances nuclear safety”. 166 The National Energy Policy Council of Thailand in 2007 proposed that up to 5 GW of capacity be operational between 2020 and 2028. However, this target will not be met for a number of reasons, importantly local opposition on the proposed sites. The latest proposal from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) is for two 1 GW units to be operational by 2036, although no location has been named. 167 Thailand’s largest private power company has announced that it will invest US$200 million for a 10 percent stake of the China General Nuclear Corporation (CGN) and Guangxi Investment Group’s Fangchenggang nuclear power plant in China. 168 CGN obviously eyes a role in the potential 2 GW nuclear project in Thailand. However, as Nuclear Intelligence Weekly (NIW) puts it, “in the near term CGN may have to content itself first with renewable opportunities in the region”. 169 In 2012, the IAEA suggested that in 2013 the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia might start building its first nuclear reactor. 170 This confident prediction was based on the fact that in April 2010 a royal decree said: “The development of atomic energy is essential to meet the Kingdom’s growing requirements for energy to generate electricity, produce desalinated water and reduce reliance on depleting hydro-carbon resources.” 171 The King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (KA-CARE) was set up in Riyadh to advance this agenda, and in June 2011, the coordinator of scientific collaboration at KA-CARE announced plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors over the next 20 years at a cost of more than 300 billion riyals (US$80 billion). The first two reactors were planned to be online in ten years and then two more per year until 2030. However, the KA-CARE nuclear proposal has still not been approved by the country’s top economic board, then headed by the late King Abdullah, and in March 2013, it was reported that a KA-CARE official has said that a tender is now unlikely for seven or eight years. In November 2013, it was 166 U.S.DOE, “Kazakhstan - United States Special Commission on Energy Partnership”, 6 April 2016, see http://www.energy.gov/articles/kazakhstan-united-states-special-commission-energy-partnership, accessed 28 May 2016. 167 WNA, “Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries”, Updated 31 May 2016, see http://www.worldnuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/emerging-nuclear-energy-countries.aspx, accessed 1 April 2016. 168 WNN, “Thai power company buys into Fangchenggang II”, 25 January 2016, see http://www.worldnuclear-news.org/NN-Thai-power-company-buys-into-Fangchenggang-II-2501164.html, accessed 1 July 2016. 169 NIW, “CGN Pairs Nuclear with Renewables in Global Push”, 1 April 2016. 170 Lucas W. Hixson, “IAEA – Vietnam and 4 other countries to incorporate nuclear energy after Fukushima”, Enformable.com, 24 February 2012, see http://enformable.com/2012/02/iaea-vietnam-and-4- other-countries-to-incorporate-nuclear-energy-after-fukushima/, accessed 24 June 2016. 171 World Politics Review, “Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Ambitions Part of Broader Strategy”, 16 June 2011, see http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9186/saudi-arabias-nuclear-ambitions-part-of-broader-strategy, accessed 24 June 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 57 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
nonetheless suggested that the project would be put back on track faster than this, with a suggestion that KA-CARE could bring forward proposals for new-build in 2015. 172 Hashim Yamani, president of the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy has said: “Recently, however, we have revised the outlook together with our stakeholders to focus on 2040 as the major milestone for long-term energy planning in Saudi Arabia.” 173 No reason was given for the delay or when the first nuclear and solar plants would be operational. The falling oil price and subsequent drop in Government revenues is likely to delay or curtail capital intensive project, such as nuclear. During 2015, new co-operation agreements were signed with France, Russia, China and South Korea. The last seemed to be the most advanced and includes proposals for the building of two SMART small modular reactors and ongoing research and collaboration. 174 Conclusion on Potential Newcomer Countries Historically, the expansion of nuclear power into new countries is extremely slow; in the last two decades only two countries, Romania (1996) and Iran (2011), started power reactors for the first time, while over the same time period two countries, Kazakhstan and Lithuania, closed theirs. In the next few years, two countries are expected to start generating electricity from nuclear reactors for the first time, but their experiences are extremely different. On the one hand is the UAE, which if it starts the first unit at the Barakah nuclear power plant next year, will be a remarkable achievement, as it will be completed on time. In Belarus, at the Ostrovets site, project costs seem to have risen, and officially the construction phase is on schedule, but without any independent verification, there is considerable skepticism over the validity of the claim. As the summary table shows in all of the emerging new countries their programs have experienced significant delays and most are exhibiting rises in expected costs. In reality, beyond Turkey it is difficult to imagine any of the countries that are so far not yet building any nuclear power plants, completing new reactors before the 2030s. Furthermore, it is important to note the dominance of Russian technology in the proposed projects. Most, if not all, of these proposed sales are backed by Russian finance. However, given the economic problems in Russia in particular relating to the lower global fossil fuel prices and ongoing economic embargoes, it is likely that many of these are to be further delayed or curtailed. 172 NIW, “Briefs—Saudi Arabia”, 15 November 2014; and Ahmad A., Ramana M.V., “Too costly to matter: Economics of nuclear power for Saudi Arabia”, Energy Journal, 1 May 2014. 173 Reuters, “Saudi Arabia's nuclear, renewable energy plans pushed back”, 19 January 2015, see http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/19/saudi-nuclear-energy-idUSL6N0UY2LS20150119, accessed 24 June 2016. 174 NIW, “Saudi Arabia, Will Water Scarcity Spur Nuclear Growth?”, 31 July 2015. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 58 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
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A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
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EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
Page 7 and 8: TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
Page 9 and 10: Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
Page 11 and 12: Executive Summary and Conclusions K
Page 13 and 14: WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
Page 15 and 16: AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
Page 17 and 18: Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
Page 19 and 20: Introduction A major accident, like
Page 21 and 22: the past two decades, nuclear power
Page 23 and 24: There were three exceptions in 2015
Page 25 and 26: In the first half of 2016, three re
Page 27 and 28: The current world fleet has a total
Page 29 and 30: However, many of those projects (48
Page 31 and 32: Table 2: Reactor Construction Times
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
Page 35 and 36: large-scale new-build. Having asses
Page 37 and 38: Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
Page 39 and 40: timeframe are highly unlikely given
Page 41 and 42: The IAEA says that, “seven countr
Page 43 and 44: for four units equaled approximatel
Page 45 and 46: Over the past year, the design sele
Page 47 and 48: In Turkey, up to three projects are
Page 49 and 50: electricity generating company (EÜ
Page 51 and 52: However, Rosatom highlighted the
Page 53 and 54: eportedly considering “suspending
Page 55 and 56: start in 2020 and commercial operat
Page 57: floating reactors. 160 There is als
Page 61 and 62: Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdow
Page 63 and 64: in the U.S. in 2013 from US$5/MBTU
Page 65 and 66: decides not to proceed with Hinkley
Page 67 and 68: market capital for renewable energy
Page 69 and 70: apply across the whole European mar
Page 71 and 72: Supervision and Administration Comm
Page 73 and 74: export market to countries such as
Page 75 and 76: Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
Page 77 and 78: Sequence and Origin of the Accident
Page 79 and 80: a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
Page 81 and 82: Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
Page 83 and 84: In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Rep
Page 85 and 86: in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
Page 87 and 88: The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
Page 89 and 90: emove the fuel-containing masses (c
Page 91 and 92: around 4.4 m 3 /hour. 270 Therefore
Page 93 and 94: Current status of workers The gover
Page 95 and 96: The government is aggressively seek
Page 97 and 98: (Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
Page 99 and 100: Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
Page 101 and 102: contamination. In all parameters li
Page 103 and 104: However, the average thyroid dose i
Page 105 and 106: • The Global Energy Assessment 20
Page 107 and 108: decisions for the construction of n
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consecutive year, making up about 7
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US$43 billion and wind power was US
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Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
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hydro renewables power generation a
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Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
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The November 2013 edition of the In
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its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
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ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
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LTEP, released in December 2013, co
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The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
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units had received a license extens
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the capacity market auctions, the p
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subsidies already. First, Illinois
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Conservation (DEC) to deny the plan
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& 2 in Illinois, Pilgrim in Massach
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Pending Combined Operating License
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traditionally been sited, but also
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projects only after Sanmen-1 ‘suc
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geographically the nuclear plant th
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(US$6.6 billion), 546 to as low as
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work on site in India for six AP100
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in regulatory safety inspections re
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2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
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The options for how such targets wo
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seismic fault line at the site. The
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The IRRS team concluded that the NR
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meeting the new regulatory guidelin
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declared for the reactor and while
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However, observers saw a “dramati
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Despite the government’s commitme
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end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
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after its license had expired, but
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The following section provides a sh
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espectively over one month and two
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On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
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In parallel, Fortum Power has been
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levels. It now looks plausible that
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The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
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esulting in a loss of market share,
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for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
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and coal-fired generation fell back
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announced in April 2004 that his go
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nuclear energy, in the form of dire
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for the £16 billion (US$30 billion
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to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
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2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
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assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
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Hungary has only one nuclear power
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concluded that when making assumpti
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in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
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of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
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eactors at the site has been put ba
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Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
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Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
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Comments WNISR considers that the 1
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Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
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Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
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Plant Grid Connection Extension App
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Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
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Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
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GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
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PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
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Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
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Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
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Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
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15 Delayed again. A further delay o
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38 Delayed several times. This esti
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