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trend in the company’s credit quality. The outlooks are positive (up), stable or negative (down). The highest rating is AAA, down to BBB, which are also said to be a safe investment. However, BB down to C is described as speculative or “junk”. 193 Table 4: Standard and Poor’s Long-Term Credit Rating of Major European Utilities Company CEZ EDF ENEL E.ON ENGIE RWE TVO Vattenfall Latest Rating Oct. 2006 May 2016 July 2013 May 2015 April 2016 Aug. 2015 May 2016 Sept. 2015 Outlook 2016 May 2015 May 2014 June 2013 June 2012 June 2011 April 2010 2009 2008 2007 Stable A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- A- Negative A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ AA- AA- AA- Stable BBB BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ A- A- A- A- A Negative BBB+ BBB+ A- A A A A A A A Negative A- A A A A A A A A A WatchNeg BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ A- A- A A A A+ Stable BB+ BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB Negative BBB+ A- A- A- A- A- A A A- A- Sources: Standard & Poor’s; Companies’ Financial Reports Table 4, shows the trends in rating from S&P for a selection of major electricity utilities. What is clear, is that S&P recognizes the prevailing conditions in the power sector in Europe with negative or stable reviews of the companies and, indeed, all of the assessed ones having lower credit rating than nine years ago. In February 2016, S&P published a summary of its views on 16 European parent companies of power utilities, which concluded that falling power prices, structural changes, including a new market design across Europe, and falling earnings could result in downgrades across the sector this year. 194 As shown in the France Focus section of this report, EDF has particular financial troubles. This is recognized by the rating agencies. In May 2016, Moody’s issued a credit opinion, which highlighted three key problems for EDF; exposure to declining market prices in France and the U.K.; increased competition in its domestic supply market; and the substantial investment program required to upgrade its nuclear reactors. Moody’s also noted that the “rating could be downgraded if Hinkley Point C were to go ahead” and that “the outlook could return to stable provided that EDF 193 Rebecca Marston, “What is a rating agency?”, BBC, 20 October 2014, see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10108284, accessed 1 July 2016. 194 S&P, “Weak Power Prices And Regulatory Risks Trigger Mainly Negative Rating Actions On European Utilities”, 24 February 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 63 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
decides not to proceed with Hinkley.” 195 This is all the more remarkable as during the same week, Jean-Bernard Levy, EDF chief executive told its shareholders that Hinkley was “essential”, adding: “Without Hinkley Point, the group would have no credibility to reach new nuclear markets.” 196 During the year 2015, EDF’s company debt rose by nearly €3 billion (US$3.6 billion) to €37.4 billion (US$40.9 billion). As EDF's credit-rating was downgraded, the debt load will likely increase further as debt becomes more expensive. Figure 20: EDF Share Price Development 2006–2016 EDF (FR) Share Price Development Since 2006 (in %) 22 November 2007: €86.45 200 150 Share Price as of 2 January 2006: €32.1 20 April 2010: €41.95 2 April 2014: €29.73 Share Price as of 4 July 2016: €11.25 100 50 0 -50 Percentage Change Since 2006 -100 Source: Yahoo Finances, July 2016 197 This is a similar view to S&P, which in May 2016 lowered its long-term corporate credit rating by S&P to A from A+, which “reflects the increasing share of revenues that EDF derives from unregulated activities following the partial liberalization of the French energy market. This comes at a time of a sharp decrease in power prices.” 198 In June Fitch ratings also downgraded its assessment of EDF from A to A-, one of the key reasons for this was “in view of further potential 195 Moody’s, “Electricite de France – update following recent downgrade to A2 negative”, Credit Opinion, 17 May 2016. 196 Emily Gosden, “Hinkley Point costs could rise to £21bn, EDF admits”, The Telegraph, 12 May 2016, see http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/12/hinkley-point-costs-could-rise-to-21bn-edf-admits/, accessed 1 July 2016. 197 Data extracted from Yahoo Finance refers to EDF’s share value performance on the Paris Stock Market (EDF.PA). Percentage changes are calculated on the basis of the closing price on 2 January 2006. 198 S&P, “France-Based Integrated Energy Company EDF Downgraded To ‘A/A-1’ On Weaker Business Profile; Outlook Negative”, 13 May 2016. Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt et al. 64 World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2016
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A MYCLE SCHNEIDER CONSULTING PROJEC
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project coordin
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EBRD Chernobyl Decommissioning/Spen
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TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Nuclear
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Foreword by Tomas Kåberger 1 The W
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Executive Summary and Conclusions K
Page 13 and 14: WNISR classifies 36 Japanese reacto
Page 15 and 16: AREVA Debacle (new episode). The Fr
Page 17 and 18: Fukushima Prefecture, 70 percent of
Page 19 and 20: Introduction A major accident, like
Page 21 and 22: the past two decades, nuclear power
Page 23 and 24: There were three exceptions in 2015
Page 25 and 26: In the first half of 2016, three re
Page 27 and 28: The current world fleet has a total
Page 29 and 30: However, many of those projects (48
Page 31 and 32: Table 2: Reactor Construction Times
Page 33 and 34: Figure 11: Construction Starts in t
Page 35 and 36: large-scale new-build. Having asses
Page 37 and 38: Figure 15: Age Distribution of 164
Page 39 and 40: timeframe are highly unlikely given
Page 41 and 42: The IAEA says that, “seven countr
Page 43 and 44: for four units equaled approximatel
Page 45 and 46: Over the past year, the design sele
Page 47 and 48: In Turkey, up to three projects are
Page 49 and 50: electricity generating company (EÜ
Page 51 and 52: However, Rosatom highlighted the
Page 53 and 54: eportedly considering “suspending
Page 55 and 56: start in 2020 and commercial operat
Page 57 and 58: floating reactors. 160 There is als
Page 59 and 60: nonetheless suggested that the proj
Page 61 and 62: Nuclear Finances: Corporate Meltdow
Page 63: in the U.S. in 2013 from US$5/MBTU
Page 67 and 68: market capital for renewable energy
Page 69 and 70: apply across the whole European mar
Page 71 and 72: Supervision and Administration Comm
Page 73 and 74: export market to countries such as
Page 75 and 76: Conclusion on Corporate Finances Th
Page 77 and 78: Sequence and Origin of the Accident
Page 79 and 80: a source of carbon dioxide to smoth
Page 81 and 82: Figure 29: Cumulative I-131 Concent
Page 83 and 84: In total, TORCH-2016 (The Other Rep
Page 85 and 86: in Lithuania, Kozloduy units 1 to 4
Page 87 and 88: The ISF-2 has been completed, pre-c
Page 89 and 90: emove the fuel-containing masses (c
Page 91 and 92: around 4.4 m 3 /hour. 270 Therefore
Page 93 and 94: Current status of workers The gover
Page 95 and 96: The government is aggressively seek
Page 97 and 98: (Full-scale Thyroid Screening Progr
Page 99 and 100: Costs 315 TEPCO continues to pay co
Page 101 and 102: contamination. In all parameters li
Page 103 and 104: However, the average thyroid dose i
Page 105 and 106: • The Global Energy Assessment 20
Page 107 and 108: decisions for the construction of n
Page 109 and 110: consecutive year, making up about 7
Page 111 and 112: US$43 billion and wind power was US
Page 113 and 114: Figure 39: Changes in EU Nuclear, S
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hydro renewables power generation a
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Annexes Annex 1: Overview by Region
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The November 2013 edition of the In
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its rated power 374 and until 26 Ma
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ebuilding its Gentilly-2 nuclear at
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LTEP, released in December 2013, co
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The U.S. reactor fleet provided 798
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units had received a license extens
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the capacity market auctions, the p
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subsidies already. First, Illinois
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Conservation (DEC) to deny the plan
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& 2 in Illinois, Pilgrim in Massach
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Pending Combined Operating License
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traditionally been sited, but also
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projects only after Sanmen-1 ‘suc
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geographically the nuclear plant th
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(US$6.6 billion), 546 to as low as
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work on site in India for six AP100
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in regulatory safety inspections re
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2010 Strategic Energy Plan, which h
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The options for how such targets wo
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seismic fault line at the site. The
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The IRRS team concluded that the NR
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meeting the new regulatory guidelin
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declared for the reactor and while
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However, observers saw a “dramati
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Despite the government’s commitme
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end of March 2014, unit 1 of Lungme
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after its license had expired, but
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The following section provides a sh
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espectively over one month and two
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On 22 December 2015, FANC authorize
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In parallel, Fortum Power has been
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levels. It now looks plausible that
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The Hinkley Point C Saga - A French
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esulting in a loss of market share,
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for lifetime extensions, before 3/1
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and coal-fired generation fell back
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announced in April 2004 that his go
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nuclear energy, in the form of dire
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for the £16 billion (US$30 billion
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to begin operating in 2024. 829 How
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2019. 839 In December 2015, BKW off
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assist in financing. 851 Westinghou
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Hungary has only one nuclear power
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concluded that when making assumpti
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in 2012 and 2013. 893 However, the
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of the MNPP [Medzamor Nuclear Power
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eactors at the site has been put ba
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Ukraine has 15 operating reactors,
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Annex 2: Japanese Nuclear Reactor S
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Comments WNISR considers that the 1
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Notes: Top: Air dose at 1 m height
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Annex 5: Status of Lifetime Extensi
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Plant Grid Connection Extension App
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Tomas Kåberger has a MSc in Engine
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Annex 7: Abbreviations ABWR AEA AEC
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GPSC GUE/NGL GWEC IAEA IANS IAS ICC
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PLEC PLEX PPA PRIS PV PWR PXE RAPS-
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Annex 8: Status of Nuclear Power in
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Annex 9: Nuclear Reactors in the Wo
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Country/Reactors Units MWe (net) Co
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15 Delayed again. A further delay o
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38 Delayed several times. This esti
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