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Dealing with salinity in Wheatbelt Valleys - Department of Water

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Hatton and Ruprecht<br />

Annual Flow-Weighted Sal<strong>in</strong>ity<br />

(mg/L TDS)<br />

Flow (m3/s)<br />

4500<br />

4000<br />

3500<br />

3000<br />

2500<br />

2000<br />

1500<br />

1000<br />

6000<br />

5000<br />

4000<br />

3000<br />

2000<br />

1000<br />

500<br />

0<br />

Prediction<br />

0<br />

1940 1960 1980 2000<br />

Year<br />

2020 2040 2060<br />

Sal<strong>in</strong>ity Data<br />

Indicative Range <strong>of</strong> Sal<strong>in</strong>ity Increase<br />

10 Yr Backward Mov<strong>in</strong>g Average<br />

Figure 11: Sal<strong>in</strong>ity trend and prediction for Blackwood River at Darradup<br />

(adapted from Bowman & Ruprecht 2000).<br />

Calibration<br />

Prediction: Scenario 1 - Salt-affected land area doubles<br />

Prediction: Scenario 2 - Salt-affected land area trebles<br />

Prediction: Scenario 3 - Salt-affected land area quadruples<br />

21/01/82 24/01/82 27/01/82 30/01/82<br />

Figure 12: Predicted peak flows <strong>of</strong> the Blackwood River at Darradup <strong>with</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall as recorded <strong>in</strong> January 1982<br />

(Cyclone Bruno), under expand<strong>in</strong>g source areas associated <strong>with</strong> ris<strong>in</strong>g regional watertables. The lower curve is<br />

the calibrated event as it happened under prevail<strong>in</strong>g levels <strong>of</strong> groundwater discharge areas <strong>in</strong> 1982. That flood<br />

event had major impacts along the lower Blackwood to towns like Nannup. The three higher curves represent<br />

what may happen if groundwater discharge areas double, treble or quadruple.<br />

– 12 –

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