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THE ECONQMIC CONSEQUENCES OF ETHNO-NATIONAL CONFLICT IN CYPRUS: THE DEVELOPMENT QF TWO SIEGE ECONOMIES AFTER 1963 AND 1974. Paul Nicholas Strong PhD ? London School of Economies University of London July 1999
ABSTRACT This thesis examines the economic aftermath of ethno-national conflict in a small European economy. Events in 1963 and 1974, led to the de facto division of a small nation-state, ethnically and geographically. Since the conflict, the different communities have remained on a war footing, having had no normal communications. For each, one of these watersheds is perceived as an economic catastrophe. The effect of arbitrarily dividing an already small economy was significant. It has been argued, however, that the large-scale uprooting of one community was seized on as a development opportunity, so the thesis examines the recovery mechanisms employed by both communities and assesses their relative economic impact. In a comparative context, economic growth and development are compared before and after de facto division, both across the ethnic division and with similar small and regional economies that have, in the period, largely retained conflict within the politicai process. Despite Problems, economic growth both sides of a UN Buffer Zone compare favourably with ali of the selected peer economies. However, with both communities having a clear perception of the cost of division, a dynamic model has been created to determine a benchmark for all-island, integrated economic growth. How would the economy have performed, if growth had not been disrupted by ethno-national conflict? How sustainable are two competing, non-communicating economies, sharing one small Mediterranean island? 2
Page 1: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to th
Page 5 and 6: Table Of Contents Page Change in ec
Page 7 and 8: List Of Figures 2.27 Revenue from t
Page 9 and 10: List Of Figures 5.25 Main destinati
Page 11 and 12: List Of Figures 7.8 The degree of o
Page 13 and 14: List Of Tables 6.7 All island, Gree
Page 15 and 16: This thesis will examine the econom
Page 17 and 18: Vassiliou's classic work 5 publishe
Page 19 and 20: As many questions raised by economi
Page 21 and 22: Figure 1.1 The structure of recent
Page 23 and 24: In terms of the topic of this thesi
Page 25 and 26: political landmark coincides with a
Page 27 and 28: were the mechanisms which encourage
Page 29 and 30: however, Chapter 5 concentrates on
Page 31 and 32: Defining the title The first priori
Page 33 and 34: such? Is northern Cyprus simply run
Page 35 and 36: unlike Greece in 1923, were already
Page 37 and 38: itself as having been literally und
Page 39 and 40: economic history, Christodoulou's s
Page 41 and 42: incurred as a resuit of eonfl ict.
Page 43 and 44: Christodoulou has concentrated his
Page 45 and 46: any credit for successful economic
Page 47 and 48: anking technology, administrative c
Page 49 and 50: (which usually has a regressive imp
Page 51 and 52: contribution did labour remittances
Page 53 and 54:
having been inspired by Zetter's in
Page 55 and 56:
econstruction also provided a means
Page 57 and 58:
Conclusion In analysing the extent
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he drew distinct analogies with the
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in Cyprus. The main objective is a
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The war proved a watershed in many
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Uruguay, Japan, Trinidad and Tobago
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financial, property and business se
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By 1960 exports represented over 20
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Table 2.1 Domestic Exports FOB in 1
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the period (1960-73), the différen
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Figure 2.4 Principal exports as a p
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producing 12% of GDP. Tourism (rest
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considerably more than Turkey, whos
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income. Mining and quarrying (now m
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Figure 2.10 Principal exports as a
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Figure 2.12 The Destination of the
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Figure 2.14 Ambiguous indicators: T
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Figure 2.15 Sìze of manufacturing
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By 1980 the economy of the Republic
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The scale of the disruption in the
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Whether taking the optimists approa
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financing from financial markets pi
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grew rapidly. In the immediate afte
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One of the major problems facing th
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coming, only concerning policy make
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with particular bottlenecks affecti
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"We attributed this finding to the
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aiding the recovery from the coup a
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employment: rapidly rising real ear
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Until the intervention of public fi
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to pick the Republic of Cyprus as t
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of offshore companies registered in
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Figure 2.27 Revenue from the offsho
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Figure 2.29 The changing compositio
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The structure of the economy, the c
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CHAPTER 3. The foundations of Takis
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Famagusta enclaves would be over-ru
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The historical context of separate
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generally concentrated in the lower
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agreed Constitution. Seemingly Clar
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séparation of the communities bega
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UN. 37 Some additional supplies mus
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Seemingly, by 1970 the Nicosia encl
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was made on the basis of a fixed in
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derived from Turkish transfer payme
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Patrick has offered a more complica
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spare parts and maintenance materia
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Emphasising the growing divisions b
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Chamber, Rauf Denktash, said people
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Figure 3.2 Thepossible economic eff
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produced by them rises significantl
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Committee" was the area military co
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February 1975 the latter bodies set
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The first five-year pian, published
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CHAPTER 4. The construction of a Tu
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Whilst the Turkish-Cypriot leadersh
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of supply, and/or marketing, in key
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shipment of 2000 tons of foodstuffs
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Eti still operateci out of Nicosia,
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institutions in northern Cyprus amo
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with multipurpose co-operatives, a
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A few new co-operatives were formed
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loans. Savings Banks do have access
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espectively. The Famagusta branch w
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Cypriot) Government in the 1960s, t
Page 185 and 186:
increasing costs 31 . This is perha
Page 187 and 188:
packages imported raffinate, supply
Page 189 and 190:
a monopoly respectively. Where ther
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Evkaf is an Islamic organisation fo
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Evkaf had a largely obscure economi
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Meanwhile a little noticed phenomen
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After the summer of 1974, the Turki
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monitored Ledra Place check-point,
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the early eighties, when Turkish ar
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Figure 4.3 Number of tourists from
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the situation that had existed prio
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stay arrivais or diminish with the
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competing with the longer establish
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flexibility of family business stru
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Ltd., Turkish-Cypriots eventually g
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dominateci by: textiles, footwear a
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force of national cohésion, change
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Figure 4.9 Main Citrus Exporters in
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Ismail Bozkurt (who secured 32.1% o
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Table 4.9 Citrus exports from north
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Ultimately the failure to act on pr
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CHAFTER 5: Re-establishing economic
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prospects of their respective de fa
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Figure 5.1 Change in Cypriot GDP as
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{0 perceive the de facto situation
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Turkey maintains that her objective
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parliament during the unstable peri
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case study, he argues that given en
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Specifically, it is analysis of nat
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imports (Figure 5.5). The extent to
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(which includes the increasingly im
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If "a leading sector in the process
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Just to put minds at rest that manu
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encouraged private sector action, t
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Figure 5.13 Gross domestic fixed ca
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major economic force, one that was
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they account for around a third of
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dominates international transfer pa
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a "development resource" 54 , rathe
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able to spearhead a revival aided,
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path, policy objectives moved to co
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overwhelming dependence on a genera
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In the difficult times that followe
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independence from total Turkish fin
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Figure 5.20 Orange production as a
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e exchanged for new "TRNC" (or, as
Page 277 and 278:
Unlike the vineyards where most of
Page 279 and 280:
Although not important in the initi
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Having said this, constant improvem
Page 283 and 284:
compensation arrangements in the no
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some of the labour intensive stages
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Figure 5.24 Proportion of citrus ex
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to treat exports from the whole of
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seem more politically motivateci an
Page 293 and 294:
Figure 6.1 Percentage change in GNP
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initially. The more immediate probl
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historical phenomena (large externa
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It has been argued that if politics
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share of National Income to somethi
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Figure 6.6 Communal income in 1980,
Page 305 and 306:
Selecting peers as proxies for pan-
Page 307 and 308:
growth potential to Cyprus in 1960,
Page 309 and 310:
was that compatible data should be
Page 311 and 312:
Figure 6.9 Micro Economies; average
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Figure 6.11 Micro Economies; averag
Page 315 and 316:
Figure 6.13 The level of government
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Figure 6.14 "More Developed Medìte
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Figure 6.17 "More DevelopedMediterr
Page 321 and 322:
Cypriot growth rate, should not dis
Page 323 and 324:
Figure 6.22 Structure of production
Page 325 and 326:
Figure 6.26 Degree of openness in t
Page 327 and 328:
economic growth 49 (variables 6-9:
Page 329 and 330:
implication, developmental différe
Page 331 and 332:
spectrum in 1980 at 38%. Perhaps le
Page 333 and 334:
namely investment rates 54 (in phys
Page 335 and 336:
instruments, the justification for
Page 337 and 338:
Figure 6.28 Average annual growth i
Page 339 and 340:
Figure 6.29 How Cyprusfared in 1980
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Figure 6.30 Total Cypriot income 19
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o.zö; may reveai someimng 01 ine e
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developments elsewhere. The relativ
Page 347 and 348:
unified economy) of 1963, Cyprus is
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CHAPTER 7. Conclusion 348 Comparati
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Turkish-Cypriot economy stagnateci.
Page 353 and 354:
So it is worth looking again at the
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stand out however, revealing enough
Page 357 and 358:
Figure 7.3 Gross domestic investmen
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Figure 7.5 "TRNC netforeign trade a
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Figure 7.8 The degree of openness i
Page 363 and 364:
control. There seems to be ampie ex
Page 365 and 366:
The role of tourism in the economic
Page 367 and 368:
seem to be able to grow in line wit
Page 369 and 370:
Comparisons throughout this thesis
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The Cyprus Mail Hellenic Group. Nic
Page 373 and 374:
I.M.F. International Financial Stat
Page 375 and 376:
1982. Fourth Emergency Economic Act
Page 377 and 378:
"Turkish Federated State of Kibris"
Page 379 and 380:
leadership of the two communities o
Page 381 and 382:
"administrations" and key economic
Page 383 and 384:
Bicak, H.A. (June) 1990. "The Impac
Page 385 and 386:
Hudson, J. and Dyniotou-Jensen M. 1
Page 387 and 388:
Mcdonald, R. 1989. The Problem of C
Page 389 and 390:
Solsten, E. (ed.) 1993. Cvprus: A c
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