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only the closest correlating human capital development profiles, at least in terms of the important primary and secondary enrolment ratios (variable 7), and the most similarities in terms of their trade regime (variable 8), being the most open group of économies. Almost by définition the "More Developed Mediterranean" group of économies were more closely correlated than the Micro Economies in terms of their starting income, per capita income in 1960, a key background indicator. Once the two outliers Israël and Turkey are removed however, the corrélation in starting income is even closer in the Régional Sub-Group. In terms of their 1951-63 growth record (variable 5), the Micro Economies diverge dramatically, as outlined earlier. With average investment rates, as a percentage of GDP (variable 6), the World Bank's régional grouping (MDM) had the closest correlating experiences between 1950-63. More countries have more similar, and similarly high, investment rates in the period encompassing Marshall Aid and US régional military assistance (Greece, Turkey, Israël, Portugal), colonial developmental and / or military expenditure by a departing colonial power (Israël, Malta, Cyprus). Either way the "More Developed Mediterranean" group of économies had average investment rates of 24% compared with the Micro Economies mean rate of 17% and the Cypriot average rate of 33% of GDP between 1951-60. It is ironie that a group chosen partly on the basis of its supposed similarity in economic structure (Small and Primary Oriented ), is so dissimilar in ail but the contribution of services (possibly another function of smallness, particularly at the time). The structural différences appear to be greatest within the group when the contribution of agriculture in these "primary oriented économies" is considered. When it cornes to the contribution of industry, the Micro Economies are the most divergent group (variable 3, Tables 6.3, 6.4 & 6.5). So what justification is there, other than their size, to treat these micro économies as a group? One justification is that much of their recorded structural différences are the conséquences of recording and data compatibility problems which exaggerate real structural, and by 327
implication, developmental différences 50 . Other justifications stem from the fact that in 1960 the Micro Economies were, like Cyprus, ail very small, open, service oriented island économies, with similar levels of human capital development. Table 6.4 Subséquent convergence or divergence within the groups (excluding Cyprus)? Coefficients of variation for selected indicators 1964-80. Micro Economies More Developed Mediterranean Regional Sub-Group 1/. GDP per capita in 1980 0.584 0.308 0.124 2/. Agriculture as a % of GDP in 1980 0.796 0.645 0.502 3/. Industry as a % of GDP in 1980 0.559 0.227 0.176 4/. Services as a % of GDP in 1980 0.230 0.144 0.116 5/. % growth in per capita GDP 1964-80 0.572 0.328 0.226 6/. Average investment as a % of GDP 1964-80 0.411 0.136 0.131 7/. Total gross primary & secondary enrolment ratio in 1980. 0.103 0.131 0.072 8/. Openness; X & M as a % of GDP 64-80 0.254 0.770 0.761 9/. Govt share of GDP (%) in 1980 0.296 0.496 0.190 Micro Economies: Barbados, Fiji, Malta, Mauritius, Trinidad & Tobago. More Developed Mediterranean: Greece, Israel, Malta, Portugal, Turkey, Yugoslavia. Regional Sub-Group: Greece, Malta, Portugal, Yugoslavia. Sources: Variables 1,5,6,8 & 9, Summers & Heston, "Penn World Tables (PWT) version 5.6"; Variables 2-4, UN, 1992 Yearbook of National Income Accounts, NY ; Variable 7, UNESCO, World Education Report. 1991, 1993, 1995. Paris. The logical counterpoint to the relative dissimilarity of the economic structures of the Micro Economies is that, by this measure, the regional économies were remarkably similar in structure in ail but the contribution of agriculture, or at least 50 In 1960 only 10% of Trinidad and Tobago's GDP derived from agriculture, whilst 40% derived from the primary sector. Depending on whether income generated from the extractive industry is allocated to industry of the primary sector, industry represents 50% of GDP in 1960 or 20% respectively. Unfortunately there are problems with grouping the extractive industry along with hunting, forestry and fishing in a "Primary Sector", problems wliich gather pace the further back a historical enquiry goes. This is why the World Bank has opted for the sectorial divisions: Agriculture, Industry and Services (Agriculture includes the UN catégories: agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing; Industry includes: mining, quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas, water and construction; Services include: whole and retail trade, restaurants and hôtels, transport and communications, finance, insurance, real estate and business services, community, social and Personal services, producers of government services and other - including statistical discrepancies). The World Bank, in its "World Development Reports", has attempted to avoid problems of interprétation by disaggregating manufacturing from industry, "because manufacturing is generally the most dynamic part of the industrial sector, its share of GDP is shown separately" IBRD. 1991. World Development Report 1991. p.209. Here, problems with data from Israël (manufacturing included mining and quarrying), Portugal (manufacturing included mining and quarrying) and Malta (mining and quarrying included in construction), mean that the same structural classifications have had to be used, though it is worth considering that estimâtes for coefficient of variation for the structure of production in the Micro Economies could be far closer if the extractive industry was included in a primary sector rather than being dumped in a more général "industry" category. When considering the primary sector in 1960 the Micro Economies look like they would be the closest correlating group if this strategy could be followed, and for the industrial sector they would be very close to the regionally related économies. Having said that, other than Trinidad and Tobago, and to a much lesser extent Malta, the above structural classifications do give a meaningful reflection of the structure and stage of development of most of the individual économies chosen here. 328
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to th
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ABSTRACT This thesis examines the e
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Table Of Contents Page Change in ec
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List Of Figures 2.27 Revenue from t
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List Of Figures 5.25 Main destinati
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List Of Figures 7.8 The degree of o
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List Of Tables 6.7 All island, Gree
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This thesis will examine the econom
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Vassiliou's classic work 5 publishe
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As many questions raised by economi
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Figure 1.1 The structure of recent
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In terms of the topic of this thesi
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political landmark coincides with a
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were the mechanisms which encourage
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however, Chapter 5 concentrates on
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Defining the title The first priori
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such? Is northern Cyprus simply run
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unlike Greece in 1923, were already
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itself as having been literally und
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economic history, Christodoulou's s
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incurred as a resuit of eonfl ict.
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Christodoulou has concentrated his
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any credit for successful economic
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anking technology, administrative c
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(which usually has a regressive imp
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contribution did labour remittances
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having been inspired by Zetter's in
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econstruction also provided a means
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Conclusion In analysing the extent
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he drew distinct analogies with the
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in Cyprus. The main objective is a
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The war proved a watershed in many
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Uruguay, Japan, Trinidad and Tobago
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financial, property and business se
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By 1960 exports represented over 20
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Table 2.1 Domestic Exports FOB in 1
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the period (1960-73), the différen
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Figure 2.4 Principal exports as a p
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producing 12% of GDP. Tourism (rest
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considerably more than Turkey, whos
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income. Mining and quarrying (now m
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Figure 2.10 Principal exports as a
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Figure 2.12 The Destination of the
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Figure 2.14 Ambiguous indicators: T
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Figure 2.15 Sìze of manufacturing
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By 1980 the economy of the Republic
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The scale of the disruption in the
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Whether taking the optimists approa
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financing from financial markets pi
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grew rapidly. In the immediate afte
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One of the major problems facing th
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coming, only concerning policy make
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with particular bottlenecks affecti
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"We attributed this finding to the
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aiding the recovery from the coup a
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employment: rapidly rising real ear
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Until the intervention of public fi
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to pick the Republic of Cyprus as t
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of offshore companies registered in
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Figure 2.27 Revenue from the offsho
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Figure 2.29 The changing compositio
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The structure of the economy, the c
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CHAPTER 3. The foundations of Takis
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Famagusta enclaves would be over-ru
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The historical context of separate
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generally concentrated in the lower
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agreed Constitution. Seemingly Clar
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séparation of the communities bega
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UN. 37 Some additional supplies mus
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Seemingly, by 1970 the Nicosia encl
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was made on the basis of a fixed in
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derived from Turkish transfer payme
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Patrick has offered a more complica
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spare parts and maintenance materia
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Emphasising the growing divisions b
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Chamber, Rauf Denktash, said people
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Figure 3.2 Thepossible economic eff
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produced by them rises significantl
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Committee" was the area military co
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February 1975 the latter bodies set
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The first five-year pian, published
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CHAPTER 4. The construction of a Tu
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Whilst the Turkish-Cypriot leadersh
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of supply, and/or marketing, in key
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shipment of 2000 tons of foodstuffs
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Eti still operateci out of Nicosia,
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institutions in northern Cyprus amo
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with multipurpose co-operatives, a
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A few new co-operatives were formed
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loans. Savings Banks do have access
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espectively. The Famagusta branch w
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Cypriot) Government in the 1960s, t
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increasing costs 31 . This is perha
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packages imported raffinate, supply
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a monopoly respectively. Where ther
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Evkaf is an Islamic organisation fo
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Evkaf had a largely obscure economi
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Meanwhile a little noticed phenomen
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After the summer of 1974, the Turki
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monitored Ledra Place check-point,
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the early eighties, when Turkish ar
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Figure 4.3 Number of tourists from
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the situation that had existed prio
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stay arrivais or diminish with the
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competing with the longer establish
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flexibility of family business stru
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Ltd., Turkish-Cypriots eventually g
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dominateci by: textiles, footwear a
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force of national cohésion, change
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Figure 4.9 Main Citrus Exporters in
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Ismail Bozkurt (who secured 32.1% o
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Table 4.9 Citrus exports from north
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Ultimately the failure to act on pr
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CHAFTER 5: Re-establishing economic
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prospects of their respective de fa
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Figure 5.1 Change in Cypriot GDP as
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{0 perceive the de facto situation
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Turkey maintains that her objective
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parliament during the unstable peri
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case study, he argues that given en
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Specifically, it is analysis of nat
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imports (Figure 5.5). The extent to
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(which includes the increasingly im
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If "a leading sector in the process
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Just to put minds at rest that manu
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encouraged private sector action, t
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Figure 5.13 Gross domestic fixed ca
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major economic force, one that was
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they account for around a third of
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dominates international transfer pa
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a "development resource" 54 , rathe
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able to spearhead a revival aided,
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path, policy objectives moved to co
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overwhelming dependence on a genera
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In the difficult times that followe
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independence from total Turkish fin
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Figure 5.20 Orange production as a
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e exchanged for new "TRNC" (or, as
Page 277 and 278: Unlike the vineyards where most of
Page 279 and 280: Although not important in the initi
Page 281 and 282: Having said this, constant improvem
Page 283 and 284: compensation arrangements in the no
Page 285 and 286: some of the labour intensive stages
Page 287 and 288: Figure 5.24 Proportion of citrus ex
Page 289 and 290: to treat exports from the whole of
Page 291 and 292: seem more politically motivateci an
Page 293 and 294: Figure 6.1 Percentage change in GNP
Page 295 and 296: initially. The more immediate probl
Page 297 and 298: historical phenomena (large externa
Page 299 and 300: It has been argued that if politics
Page 301 and 302: share of National Income to somethi
Page 303 and 304: Figure 6.6 Communal income in 1980,
Page 305 and 306: Selecting peers as proxies for pan-
Page 307 and 308: growth potential to Cyprus in 1960,
Page 309 and 310: was that compatible data should be
Page 311 and 312: Figure 6.9 Micro Economies; average
Page 313 and 314: Figure 6.11 Micro Economies; averag
Page 315 and 316: Figure 6.13 The level of government
Page 317 and 318: Figure 6.14 "More Developed Medìte
Page 319 and 320: Figure 6.17 "More DevelopedMediterr
Page 321 and 322: Cypriot growth rate, should not dis
Page 323 and 324: Figure 6.22 Structure of production
Page 325 and 326: Figure 6.26 Degree of openness in t
Page 327: economic growth 49 (variables 6-9:
Page 331 and 332: spectrum in 1980 at 38%. Perhaps le
Page 333 and 334: namely investment rates 54 (in phys
Page 335 and 336: instruments, the justification for
Page 337 and 338: Figure 6.28 Average annual growth i
Page 339 and 340: Figure 6.29 How Cyprusfared in 1980
Page 341 and 342: Figure 6.30 Total Cypriot income 19
Page 343 and 344: o.zö; may reveai someimng 01 ine e
Page 345 and 346: developments elsewhere. The relativ
Page 347 and 348: unified economy) of 1963, Cyprus is
Page 349 and 350: CHAPTER 7. Conclusion 348 Comparati
Page 351 and 352: Turkish-Cypriot economy stagnateci.
Page 353 and 354: So it is worth looking again at the
Page 355 and 356: stand out however, revealing enough
Page 357 and 358: Figure 7.3 Gross domestic investmen
Page 359 and 360: Figure 7.5 "TRNC netforeign trade a
Page 361 and 362: Figure 7.8 The degree of openness i
Page 363 and 364: control. There seems to be ampie ex
Page 365 and 366: The role of tourism in the economic
Page 367 and 368: seem to be able to grow in line wit
Page 369 and 370: Comparisons throughout this thesis
Page 371 and 372: The Cyprus Mail Hellenic Group. Nic
Page 373 and 374: I.M.F. International Financial Stat
Page 375 and 376: 1982. Fourth Emergency Economic Act
Page 377 and 378: "Turkish Federated State of Kibris"
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leadership of the two communities o
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"administrations" and key economic
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Bicak, H.A. (June) 1990. "The Impac
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Hudson, J. and Dyniotou-Jensen M. 1
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Mcdonald, R. 1989. The Problem of C
Page 389 and 390:
Solsten, E. (ed.) 1993. Cvprus: A c
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