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the problems of distortion a little less serious than projections based on earlier data.
The projection is also statistically more secure, as it means extrapolating a mere
seven years (rather than seventeen) from fourteen good (rather than thirteen slightly
more disparate 15 ) observations. The island was however already divided, not
hermetically and not generally regionally, but fairly rigidly on ethnie grounds. On
the basis of a less secure historical model (i.e. the economy was already largely
divided ethnically), this second projection provides a more secure economic and
statistica! one.
Thus Figure 6.4 (below) extrapolâtes a growth trend from 1973. The projection
assumes a level of reintegration had occurred to the extent that Turkish-Cypriots had
regained their 1963 share of National Income. This is a more reasonable assumption
than it at first seems. Much of the Turkish-Cypriot loss of income in 1964 derived
from a loss of earnings from government and public sector employment 16 .
Reintegration assumes that there was agreement on the fundamental issues, a return
to abandoned property and that the public sector again became bi-communal. The
assumption is that the Turkish-Cypriot share of public sector employment again
exceeds its proportionate share of the population, as it had in 1963. A return to
public sector employment and abandoned property would bring the Turkish-Cypriot
15 Pre 1960 data had to be extrapolated using earlier growth trends from incompatible National
Income data. The first reliable National Income Accounts for Cyprus were published in 1951 and
referred back to the year 1950 only. They were based on estimâtes calculated using the 1950 Census
of Employment and Production (Statistical Abstract 1956, p.178). From then until 1956 estimâtes of
Cypriot National Income were based on the 1950 Census of Employment and Production, Annual
Censuses of Agriculture and subsequently the 1954 Census of Production. These estimâtes generated
an aggregate income figure called "Net National Income", at current and constant factor costs. In the
1959 to 1962 Statistical Abstracts, GDP and GNP figures are given in current and constant factor
prices back to 1950 for the first time. After 1963, the 1958 UN System of National Accounts (SNA)
is used and recalculated back to 1958. These figures are quoted in constant and current market prices.
After 1983, the new 1968 SNA system was used and ali National Income Accounts are recalculated
back to 1976 using this new system. However, basic data such as GDP, GNP etc. have been
recompiled back to 1960. These différent metliods of calculation are not compatible. What has been
done here is simply to use the most up to date estimâtes where possible. So the 1960-1963 figures in
constant 1980 market prices are based on the 1968 SNA quoted in the 1993 Statistica! Abstract,
p.213 (published in 1995). Percentage growth rates for GNP at constant market prices, 1958-1960,
and at constant factor prices, 1950-1957, have then been used to recompile GNP figures in 1980
market prices using the 1968 SNA figures as the basis from which the earlier fluctuating growth rate
diminishes.
16 A factor that contributed to the breakdown of the Constitution itself, as Greek Cypriots were not
Willing to honour, or at least not speedily enough, their Constitutional commitments to raise the ratio
of Turkish Cypriot public sector employment to 30%.
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