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seems to be the logie behind the long stalled UN sponsored Confidence Building Measures (CBM's). These advocated the initial steps of a process of German reunification in reverse, though in a climate of mutual hostility. The CBM's offered the possibility of some mutuai benefits from currently dereliet and abandoned infrastructure, some mutuai trade, some re-integration; they did not attempi to lay the foundations for the création of a unitary Cypriot state. However, even the former has proved too ambitious. Perhaps war in Cyprus accentuated changes already occurring in the social and economic life of the island (though much Greek-Cypriot opinion argues the reverse). Urbanisation, which had been accelerating in the twenty years prior to 1974 92 , experienced an immediate upward shift (in the Republic of Cyprus) as the overwhelmingly rural population from the north was displaced south. This was consistent with the decline in significance of the primary sector (both in terms of GDP contribution and as a major employer) and the subsequent meteoric rise of services, after the brief but seemingly cruciai manufacturing boom of the late 1970s (see Chapter 5). Generally, the literature on recent Cypriot economic history is sparse and not comparative, missing interesting questions. This thesis attempts to examine the economic conséquences of systematic and sustained organised violence 92 Between 1960 - 1974 the urban population grew by 31 %, over the same period the rural population grew by only 0.4% (Pearce R. 1981. "Part-Time Farming in Cyprus", University of Reading , Dept. of Agricultural Economies & Management, Development Study No. 21). 59
in Cyprus. The main objective is a comprehensive analysis of the différent and separate economic developments in the island's two communities; why do they have such différent economic backgrounds and conditions yet similar systems, economic structures and institutions? Did economic performance predominantly represent différent constraints or différent policies? How did the two separate and noncommunicating économies adapt to inter-communal redistribution and new factor proportions? To what extent did war and de facto division resuit in the restructuring of the economy, the re-routing of trade, increases in or a lowering of productivity and economic modernisation or distortion? What have been the changes in economic priorities as political stagnation followed political turmoil? The hypothesis to be tested here is whether war released economic potentials which may have been neglected or destroyed by peace or prolonged internai conflict. How much and how well were the events of 1974 exploited as a "development opportunity"? Put simply, has war stimulated or retarded the Cypriot economy as a whole and the Greek and Turkish-Cypriot économies individually? 60
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to th
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ABSTRACT This thesis examines the e
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Table Of Contents Page Change in ec
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List Of Figures 2.27 Revenue from t
Page 9 and 10: List Of Figures 5.25 Main destinati
Page 11 and 12: List Of Figures 7.8 The degree of o
Page 13 and 14: List Of Tables 6.7 All island, Gree
Page 15 and 16: This thesis will examine the econom
Page 17 and 18: Vassiliou's classic work 5 publishe
Page 19 and 20: As many questions raised by economi
Page 21 and 22: Figure 1.1 The structure of recent
Page 23 and 24: In terms of the topic of this thesi
Page 25 and 26: political landmark coincides with a
Page 27 and 28: were the mechanisms which encourage
Page 29 and 30: however, Chapter 5 concentrates on
Page 31 and 32: Defining the title The first priori
Page 33 and 34: such? Is northern Cyprus simply run
Page 35 and 36: unlike Greece in 1923, were already
Page 37 and 38: itself as having been literally und
Page 39 and 40: economic history, Christodoulou's s
Page 41 and 42: incurred as a resuit of eonfl ict.
Page 43 and 44: Christodoulou has concentrated his
Page 45 and 46: any credit for successful economic
Page 47 and 48: anking technology, administrative c
Page 49 and 50: (which usually has a regressive imp
Page 51 and 52: contribution did labour remittances
Page 53 and 54: having been inspired by Zetter's in
Page 55 and 56: econstruction also provided a means
Page 57 and 58: Conclusion In analysing the extent
Page 59: he drew distinct analogies with the
Page 63 and 64: The war proved a watershed in many
Page 65 and 66: Uruguay, Japan, Trinidad and Tobago
Page 67 and 68: financial, property and business se
Page 69 and 70: By 1960 exports represented over 20
Page 71 and 72: Table 2.1 Domestic Exports FOB in 1
Page 73 and 74: the period (1960-73), the différen
Page 75 and 76: Figure 2.4 Principal exports as a p
Page 77 and 78: producing 12% of GDP. Tourism (rest
Page 79 and 80: considerably more than Turkey, whos
Page 81 and 82: income. Mining and quarrying (now m
Page 83 and 84: Figure 2.10 Principal exports as a
Page 85 and 86: Figure 2.12 The Destination of the
Page 87 and 88: Figure 2.14 Ambiguous indicators: T
Page 89 and 90: Figure 2.15 Sìze of manufacturing
Page 91 and 92: By 1980 the economy of the Republic
Page 93 and 94: The scale of the disruption in the
Page 95 and 96: Whether taking the optimists approa
Page 97 and 98: financing from financial markets pi
Page 99 and 100: grew rapidly. In the immediate afte
Page 101 and 102: One of the major problems facing th
Page 103 and 104: coming, only concerning policy make
Page 105 and 106: with particular bottlenecks affecti
Page 107 and 108: "We attributed this finding to the
Page 109 and 110: aiding the recovery from the coup a
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employment: rapidly rising real ear
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Until the intervention of public fi
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to pick the Republic of Cyprus as t
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of offshore companies registered in
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Figure 2.27 Revenue from the offsho
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Figure 2.29 The changing compositio
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The structure of the economy, the c
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CHAPTER 3. The foundations of Takis
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Famagusta enclaves would be over-ru
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The historical context of separate
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generally concentrated in the lower
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agreed Constitution. Seemingly Clar
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séparation of the communities bega
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UN. 37 Some additional supplies mus
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Seemingly, by 1970 the Nicosia encl
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was made on the basis of a fixed in
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derived from Turkish transfer payme
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Patrick has offered a more complica
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spare parts and maintenance materia
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Emphasising the growing divisions b
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Chamber, Rauf Denktash, said people
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Figure 3.2 Thepossible economic eff
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produced by them rises significantl
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Committee" was the area military co
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February 1975 the latter bodies set
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The first five-year pian, published
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CHAPTER 4. The construction of a Tu
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Whilst the Turkish-Cypriot leadersh
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of supply, and/or marketing, in key
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shipment of 2000 tons of foodstuffs
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Eti still operateci out of Nicosia,
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institutions in northern Cyprus amo
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with multipurpose co-operatives, a
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A few new co-operatives were formed
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loans. Savings Banks do have access
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espectively. The Famagusta branch w
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Cypriot) Government in the 1960s, t
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increasing costs 31 . This is perha
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packages imported raffinate, supply
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a monopoly respectively. Where ther
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Evkaf is an Islamic organisation fo
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Evkaf had a largely obscure economi
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Meanwhile a little noticed phenomen
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After the summer of 1974, the Turki
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monitored Ledra Place check-point,
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the early eighties, when Turkish ar
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Figure 4.3 Number of tourists from
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the situation that had existed prio
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stay arrivais or diminish with the
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competing with the longer establish
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flexibility of family business stru
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Ltd., Turkish-Cypriots eventually g
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dominateci by: textiles, footwear a
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force of national cohésion, change
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Figure 4.9 Main Citrus Exporters in
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Ismail Bozkurt (who secured 32.1% o
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Table 4.9 Citrus exports from north
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Ultimately the failure to act on pr
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CHAFTER 5: Re-establishing economic
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prospects of their respective de fa
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Figure 5.1 Change in Cypriot GDP as
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{0 perceive the de facto situation
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Turkey maintains that her objective
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parliament during the unstable peri
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case study, he argues that given en
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Specifically, it is analysis of nat
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imports (Figure 5.5). The extent to
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(which includes the increasingly im
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If "a leading sector in the process
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Just to put minds at rest that manu
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encouraged private sector action, t
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Figure 5.13 Gross domestic fixed ca
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major economic force, one that was
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they account for around a third of
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dominates international transfer pa
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a "development resource" 54 , rathe
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able to spearhead a revival aided,
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path, policy objectives moved to co
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overwhelming dependence on a genera
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In the difficult times that followe
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independence from total Turkish fin
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Figure 5.20 Orange production as a
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e exchanged for new "TRNC" (or, as
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Unlike the vineyards where most of
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Although not important in the initi
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Having said this, constant improvem
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compensation arrangements in the no
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some of the labour intensive stages
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Figure 5.24 Proportion of citrus ex
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to treat exports from the whole of
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seem more politically motivateci an
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Figure 6.1 Percentage change in GNP
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initially. The more immediate probl
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historical phenomena (large externa
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It has been argued that if politics
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share of National Income to somethi
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Figure 6.6 Communal income in 1980,
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Selecting peers as proxies for pan-
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growth potential to Cyprus in 1960,
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was that compatible data should be
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Figure 6.9 Micro Economies; average
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Figure 6.11 Micro Economies; averag
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Figure 6.13 The level of government
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Figure 6.14 "More Developed Medìte
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Figure 6.17 "More DevelopedMediterr
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Cypriot growth rate, should not dis
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Figure 6.22 Structure of production
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Figure 6.26 Degree of openness in t
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economic growth 49 (variables 6-9:
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implication, developmental différe
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spectrum in 1980 at 38%. Perhaps le
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namely investment rates 54 (in phys
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instruments, the justification for
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Figure 6.28 Average annual growth i
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Figure 6.29 How Cyprusfared in 1980
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Figure 6.30 Total Cypriot income 19
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o.zö; may reveai someimng 01 ine e
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developments elsewhere. The relativ
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unified economy) of 1963, Cyprus is
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CHAPTER 7. Conclusion 348 Comparati
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Turkish-Cypriot economy stagnateci.
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So it is worth looking again at the
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stand out however, revealing enough
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Figure 7.3 Gross domestic investmen
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Figure 7.5 "TRNC netforeign trade a
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Figure 7.8 The degree of openness i
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control. There seems to be ampie ex
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The role of tourism in the economic
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seem to be able to grow in line wit
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Comparisons throughout this thesis
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The Cyprus Mail Hellenic Group. Nic
Page 373 and 374:
I.M.F. International Financial Stat
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1982. Fourth Emergency Economic Act
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"Turkish Federated State of Kibris"
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leadership of the two communities o
Page 381 and 382:
"administrations" and key economic
Page 383 and 384:
Bicak, H.A. (June) 1990. "The Impac
Page 385 and 386:
Hudson, J. and Dyniotou-Jensen M. 1
Page 387 and 388:
Mcdonald, R. 1989. The Problem of C
Page 389 and 390:
Solsten, E. (ed.) 1993. Cvprus: A c
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